Keith Central PA Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This is a stronger event than the 1877-1878 reanalysis. It has significantly more oceanic heat to work with. That event produced what is probably the highest consecutive three month DJF departures for a single CONUS long term weather station. So not a stretch to say this is the strongest El Niño event in a long time. MSP Dec 1877…..+14.5° Jan 1878…..+10.2° Feb 1878…..+15.8°https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0650.1.xml The strong 1877/78 El Niño in ERSSTv5 is consistent with independent SOI index derived from sea level pressure measurements in Darwin and Tahiti (Trenberth 1984). This El Niño event in ERSSTv5 is also consistent with the precipitation and temperature proxy data derived from tree rings and coral reefs and from the great famine record in southeastern Asia and Africa (Kiladis and Diaz 1986; Allan et al. 1991; D’Arrigo et al. 2008; Garden 2008; Hao et al. 2010; Räsänen et al. 2016; Singh et al. 2018; Lough et al. 2018). For example, Singh et al. (2018) used the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) in Asia and demonstrated a record-breaking El Niño during 1877/78. D’Arrigo et al. (2008) used the PDSI in Australia and Lough et al. (2018) used the degree heating month index (DHMI) derived from coral reef in the tropical oceans; both showed a strong El Niño event during 1877/78. The strong 1877/78 El Niño in ERSSTv5 is consistent with that in HadSST1 (Fig. 2c; dotted blue) (Rayner et al. 2003). The Niño-3 index is approximately 0.5°C lower in HadISST1 than in ERSSTv5 from January 1877 to February 1878, which is in the range of the uncertainty of ERSSTv5 as indicated in Fig. 5d and Table 1. The temporal correlation between ERSSTv5 and HadISST1 Niño-3 indices between January 1877 and January 1879 is high (approximately 0.94). The consistency between the 1997/98 El Niño events in ERSSTv5 and HadSST1 is very good with strong correlations (0.99) between January 1997 and January 1999 (Fig. 2f). In conclusion, the strength (2.8°–3.5°C) and uncertainty (0.5°C) of the 1877/78 El Niño event are quantified by evaluating the selection of certain parameters in the ERSSTv5 ensemble. The strength of the 1877/78 El Niño appears approximately equal to those during 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16. No doubt its going to be warmer than normal but those temperature departures are ridiculous. Just remember the warmest winter we had was 01-02 and that was neutral enso..Who really knows? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 53 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said: No doubt its going to be warmer than normal but those temperature departures are ridiculous. Just remember the warmest winter we had was 01-02 and that was neutral enso..Who really knows? Our warmest since 1980: 16-7 (Niña) 22-3 (Nina) 19-20 (WN) 18-19 (Nino) 15-16 (Nino) 21-2 (Nina) 12-13 (CN) 11-12 (Nina) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I just don't get anything out of operating under the assumption that others have nothing to offer. i've been on these boards for over a decade. no assumptions needed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: i've been on these boards for over a decade. no assumptions needed Why are you still here if you find nothing of value? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 15 Author Share Posted August 15 TAO/TRITON has reached +10c in the subsurface! First time I think this has ever happened (someone correct me if I'm wrong). That's +18f. Wonder if we'll reach +20F. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 29 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: TAO/TRITON has reached +10c in the subsurface! First time I think this has ever happened (someone correct me if I'm wrong). That's +18f. Wonder if we'll reach +20F. Been working on the Pacific....2009 is actually damn good extra tropical Pacific analog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 15 Author Share Posted August 15 Something to think of: With the aurora borealis making it so close to the equator for the first time in 500+ years, a few years ago, and this Record El Nino by +20% occurring 2 years after that, is there a connection? Are we possibly underestimating just how big this solar max was, or maybe the Earth's magnetic field is weaker? Solar Cycle +2 years before 2020 Just a coincidence? I know ENSO historically "evens out", and this one is "evening out" Nina's going back to 1998. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 7 hours ago, bluewave said: This is a stronger event than the 1877-1878 reanalysis. It has significantly more oceanic heat to work with. That event produced what is probably the highest consecutive three month DJF departures for a single CONUS long term weather station. So not a stretch to say this is the strongest El Niño event in a long time. MSP Dec 1877…..+14.5° Jan 1878…..+10.2° Feb 1878…..+15.8°https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0650.1.xml The strong 1877/78 El Niño in ERSSTv5 is consistent with independent SOI index derived from sea level pressure measurements in Darwin and Tahiti (Trenberth 1984). This El Niño event in ERSSTv5 is also consistent with the precipitation and temperature proxy data derived from tree rings and coral reefs and from the great famine record in southeastern Asia and Africa (Kiladis and Diaz 1986; Allan et al. 1991; D’Arrigo et al. 2008; Garden 2008; Hao et al. 2010; Räsänen et al. 2016; Singh et al. 2018; Lough et al. 2018). For example, Singh et al. (2018) used the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) in Asia and demonstrated a record-breaking El Niño during 1877/78. D’Arrigo et al. (2008) used the PDSI in Australia and Lough et al. (2018) used the degree heating month index (DHMI) derived from coral reef in the tropical oceans; both showed a strong El Niño event during 1877/78. The strong 1877/78 El Niño in ERSSTv5 is consistent with that in HadSST1 (Fig. 2c; dotted blue) (Rayner et al. 2003). The Niño-3 index is approximately 0.5°C lower in HadISST1 than in ERSSTv5 from January 1877 to February 1878, which is in the range of the uncertainty of ERSSTv5 as indicated in Fig. 5d and Table 1. The temporal correlation between ERSSTv5 and HadISST1 Niño-3 indices between January 1877 and January 1879 is high (approximately 0.94). The consistency between the 1997/98 El Niño events in ERSSTv5 and HadSST1 is very good with strong correlations (0.99) between January 1997 and January 1999 (Fig. 2f). In conclusion, the strength (2.8°–3.5°C) and uncertainty (0.5°C) of the 1877/78 El Niño event are quantified by evaluating the selection of certain parameters in the ERSSTv5 ensemble. The strength of the 1877/78 El Niño appears approximately equal to those during 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16. The core of warmth in 1877-78 was in the upper midwest and into Canada. It wasn't even a mild winter on the east coast. It ranks only 12th warmest from 1869-1900 at NYC. 1877-78 departures using today's averages MSP Dec: +11.8° Jan: +5.6° Feb: +10.9° DTW Dec: +6.8° Jan: +1.5° Feb: +1.2° NYC Dec: -1.7° Jan: -3.8° Feb: -3.6° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Something to think of: With the aurora borealis making it so close to the equator for the first time in 300+ years, a few years ago, and this Record El Nino by +20% occurring 2 years after that, is there a connection? Are we possibly underestimating just how big this solar max was, or maybe the Earth's magnetic field is weaker? Solar Cycle +2 years before 2020 There is obviously a connection between solar and ENSO..I pointed that out last week, then some new poster disputed it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: The core of warmth in 1877-78 was in the upper midwest and into Canada. It wasn't even a mild winter on the east coast. It ranks only 12th warmest from 1869-1900 at NYC. 1877-78 departures using today's averages MSP Dec: +11.8° Jan: +5.6° Feb: +10.9° DTW Dec: +6.8° Jan: +1.5° Feb: +1.2° NYC Dec: -1.7° Jan: -3.8° Feb: -3.6° Still sucked for snowfall on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Still sucked for snowfall on the east coast. Duluth, MN was even crazier than Minneapolis. Again, these are today's averages. DULUTH Dec: +15.6° Jan: +9.3° Feb: +15.6° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Still sucked for snowfall on the east coast. Most of the places I looked up didn't have snow records yet. Detroit had a near avg snow season at 43.4". NYC was well below at 8.1" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Most of the places I looked up didn't have snow records yet. Detroit had a near avg snow season at 43.4". NYC was well below at 8.1" Looking at those temp departures, It looks like we were in between the “cold” east of here and the very mild not too far west of here. I could see how it could have been a clipper pattern around here that winter. I wonder if that is what helped Detroit to get to average snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 9 minutes ago, roardog said: Looking at those temp departures, It looks like we were in between the “cold” east of here and the very mild not too far west of here. I could see how it could have been a clipper pattern around here that winter. I wonder if that is what helped Detroit to get to average snow. There was a big 14.8" snowstorm Jan 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JACKASS Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 I’ll admit that @forkyforkis an odd duck. However, as Kush (who has been banned for other reasons) made it clear, forky was one of the very few “icepussy” mets on this forum. Just a reminder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 3 hours ago, JACKASS said: I’ll admit that @forkyforkis an odd duck. However, as Kush (who has been banned for other reasons) made it clear, forky was one of the very few “icepussy” mets on this forum. Just a reminder. He does know his shit, which is why the nonsense-troll MO is so frustrating. ...every now and then, I get a DM from him on actual weather in the lead up to a huge event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 57 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That looks centered on the PNW/SW Canada...could be worse. NAO-east, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 7 hours ago, forkyfork said: i just don't get anything out of talking to people who don't know that much It took you a decade and 30,000 plus posts to determine that nobody knows anything. You are sharp! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JACKASS Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He does not know his shit, which is why the nonsense-troll MO is so frustrating. ...every now and then, I get a DM from him on actual weather in the lead up to a huge event. Not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 This thread has become into a bitch session from i said and you said and im right and you are wrong,its become quite comical ,its not even weather realated and some of yall talk about humility, you should act it than preach it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 2 hours ago, JACKASS said: Not? Typo- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 51 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: Thats pretty cool,i have a friend of mine that lives around the summit,she always send me vids of the volcano Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 16 Author Share Posted August 16 1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said: You sure about that? That seems kind of unbelievable. Would shatter some records. I know Tyhoon Dolphin recently got down to 5430dm or something in its core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 I am so happy about this super nino. It is going to be amusing watching so many torrential storms pile up water in the southeastern US this autumn, winter and in Spring 2027! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I just feel like discord is much more difficult to follow.....it's just rapid faire posts that just scroll into oblivion. I prefer the pages on the forum. It has to be organized properly. Once you learn how to use it, it’s much more efficient and can look back at old threads just as easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 MJO has certainly been hugging the 6-7-8-1 this summer. If that carries into the winter it'd be a nice change to continuous 4-5-6. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 On 6/27/2026 at 1:08 PM, GaWx said: I’m wondering if W Yellowstone Gateway, which is at 6,666 ft, could get some snow: ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT MONDAY... * WHAT...PERIODS OF WET SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEETINCLUDING THE CITIES OF BIG SKY, WEST YELLOWSTONE, TARGHEE PASS, AND RAYNOLDS PASS 942 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026 TONIGHT COLDER. RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 4 INCHES. LOWS 31 TO 37.IF W Yell. Gate can somehow get any measurable SN late tonight, it would be a new record latest in season meas. on record by 20 days! They’ve had no meas. June 9th-Sep 14th although records go back only to 2007. But even just a T would be notable as they’ve had only 2 Ts June 28th-Sep 4th since 2007:Records: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=tfx https://grizzlyrv.com/what-is-the-elevation-of-west-yellowstone/ Sorry to grave dig but just saw this. We only received a few sleet pellets from this event, but in June of last year (June 22, 2025) we received about half an inch of snow that the local recording station appears to measured as a Trace. Typically we get snowflakes most Junes and Septembers, although it often doesn't stick. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 This current WWB looking pretty impressive. This isn't even the anomalies, these are the actual zonal winds. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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