2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[donsutherland1]

Some statistics for the Southeast concerning snowstorms during strong El Niño winters are below. Atlanta may have among the best chance of seeing a measurable snowstorm this upcoming winter.

[annunciated]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some statistics for the Southeast concerning snowstorms during strong El Niño winters are below. Atlanta may have among the best chance of seeing a measurable snowstorm this upcoming winter.

I hope Athens can get some of that magic too, lol.

[EasternLI]

Does the AAO signal anything to us (NH)? I don't remember. I want to say no, but I feel like I've heard that it did somewhere. Just wondering because it's been very positive through most of our summer. Which is the SH winter. Even getting above 4SD for a bit at the tail end of June. 

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s also a challenge when you aren’t speaking with someone in person. Many not written cues can get lost on these forums. I am sure if we all met in person things would be different.

Also goes to how many interactions these days occur online vs in person prior to social media and the internet. So we don’t have the benefit of nonverbal cues which are common in actual life. 

Even with all of issues that pop up from time to on these forums, the benefits outweigh any negatives. Weather models and past statistics for various stations used to be very limited before the age of the internet.

I can remember the old Alden Difax machines that was the only way to get weather models. Plus there were no freely available databases containing past reanalysis products with 500 mb patterns  and temperatures for any given month or period. 

 

Ive said it before and ill say it again. I do not agree with alot of the stuff you post, but you always remain respectful so I have no problem agreeing to disagree on some things. This is the huge difference between you and snowman. 

[EasternLI]

These are big claims, don't see why not though TBH.

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, annunciated said:

I hope Athens can get some of that magic too, lol.

I agree. 1972-73, 1982-83, and 2015-16 had 1 or more days with measurable snowfall in Athens.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

These are big claims, don't see why not though TBH.

 

 

 

When measuring enso strength you’re talking tenths of a degree making a difference as far as records. No one can convince me that we know the strength of an El Niño from the 1700s. Even 1877-1878 is questionable down to tenths of a degree IMO. 

[mitchnick]

47 minutes ago, roardog said:

When measuring enso strength you’re talking tenths of a degree making a difference as far as records. No one can convince me that we know the strength of an El Niño from the 1700s. Even 1877-1878 is questionable down to tenths of a degree IMO. 

Yep. Easy to make a claim when there's no way to know its accuracy. But it's great for clicks!

[annunciated]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yep. Easy to make a claim when there's no way to know its accuracy. But it's great for clicks!

It's why the notion from some people that this is the Nino of the Millenium (250-1000 years in some Xwitter post) is just crazy, and yet again, it's great for clicks.

[EasternLI]

23 minutes ago, roardog said:

When measuring enso strength you’re talking tenths of a degree making a difference as far as records. No one can convince me that we know the strength of an El Niño from the 1700s. Even 1877-1878 is questionable down to tenths of a degree IMO. 

Yeah, that's a totally valid point. Any records from that long ago are questionable at best. I know there are reanalysis methods but still. Wish there was a better normalized way to look at it. Not as tied to temperature anomalies. Especially if rising global temperatures are a concern. I get that RONI is attempting to do that, but not sure how I feel about that yet either. What I do know is that out of the entire JMA archive of VP 200 anomalies. This event (the current 30 day mean obs posted below) is already now more impressive looking than anything in their entire record. Which goes back to the 40's. That includes 15-16, 97-98, 82-83, 72-73 or anything else. Actually everything else in that data. At least as it stands right now and during this part of the year. That, to me, is making this event stand out much more than any temp anomalies ever could. It's fascinating to watch something extreme like this unfold. As an aside, I do not have high hopes for winter here locally. Very strong enso either + or - generally sucks historically here where I am. I will firmly believe that until proven otherwise because I've already lived through it. Extreme events are always interesting though, and this el nino is definitely that.

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

When measuring enso strength you’re talking tenths of a degree making a difference as far as records. No one can convince me that we know the strength of an El Niño from the 1700s. Even 1877-1878 is questionable down to tenths of a degree IMO. 

so the strongest nino in almost 300 years. damb

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, roardog said:

When measuring enso strength you’re talking tenths of a degree making a difference as far as records. No one can convince me that we know the strength of an El Niño from the 1700s. Even 1877-1878 is questionable down to tenths of a degree IMO. 

That’s where the great and long SOI monthly records can be useful. There’s a good -correlation between SOI and 3.4 SSTa. SOI goes way back to 1876.

[roardog]

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

so the strongest nino in almost 300 years. damb

It can go both ways. What we think could have been a monster Nino in 1789 might not have even been stronger than 2015-2016. That would make the current Nino even more impressive. 

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, roardog said:

It can go both ways. What we think could have been a monster Nino in 1789 might not have even been stronger than 2015-2016. That would make the current Nino even more impressive. 

We can't get Oisst and Coral Reefs to agree on SST/SSTA's on current conditions NOW, and we're supposed to believe numbers from 100+ years ago? They're just salesmen.

[LakePaste25]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

It can go both ways. What we think could have been a monster Nino in 1789 might not have even been stronger than 2015-2016. That would make the current Nino even more impressive. 

Definitely true for temperature records too. There’s no possible way that Phoenixville, PA hit 111 in the early 1900s. Many of these should be tossed IMO. 

[roardog]

28 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Definitely true for temperature records too. There’s no possible way that Phoenixville, PA hit 111 in the early 1900s. Many of these should be tossed IMO. 

Yeah. There’s some questionable temp records from the early days of record keeping for sure.

[michsnowfreak]

35 minutes ago, roardog said:

Yeah. There’s some questionable temp records from the early days of record keeping for sure.

I feel its moreso with the coop stations. Ive seen some ridiculous temps of both extremes in old coop notes. I feel most major climate sites are pretty accurate to the 1870s. 

[qg_omega]

Historic

https://x.com/us_stormwatch/status/2088444482224328788?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Historic

https://x.com/us_stormwatch/status/2088444482224328788?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

Historic event = historic storms

[bluewave]

This is a stronger event than the 1877-1878 reanalysis. It has significantly more oceanic heat to work with. That event produced what is probably the highest consecutive three month DJF departures for a single CONUS long term weather station. So not a stretch to say this is the strongest El Niño event in a long time.

 

MSP

Dec 1877…..+14.5°

Jan 1878…..+10.2°

Feb 1878…..+15.8°

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0650.1.xml

The strong 1877/78 El Niño in ERSSTv5 is consistent with independent SOI index derived from sea level pressure measurements in Darwin and Tahiti (Trenberth 1984). This El Niño event in ERSSTv5 is also consistent with the precipitation and temperature proxy data derived from tree rings and coral reefs and from the great famine record in southeastern Asia and Africa (Kiladis and Diaz 1986; Allan et al. 1991; D’Arrigo et al. 2008; Garden 2008; Hao et al. 2010; Räsänen et al. 2016; Singh et al. 2018; Lough et al. 2018). For example, Singh et al. (2018) used the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) in Asia and demonstrated a record-breaking El Niño during 1877/78. D’Arrigo et al. (2008) used the PDSI in Australia and Lough et al. (2018) used the degree heating month index (DHMI) derived from coral reef in the tropical oceans; both showed a strong El Niño event during 1877/78.

The strong 1877/78 El Niño in ERSSTv5 is consistent with that in HadSST1 (Fig. 2c; dotted blue) (Rayner et al. 2003). The Niño-3 index is approximately 0.5°C lower in HadISST1 than in ERSSTv5 from January 1877 to February 1878, which is in the range of the uncertainty of ERSSTv5 as indicated in Fig. 5d and Table 1. The temporal correlation between ERSSTv5 and HadISST1 Niño-3 indices between January 1877 and January 1879 is high (approximately 0.94). The consistency between the 1997/98 El Niño events in ERSSTv5 and HadSST1 is very good with strong correlations (0.99) between January 1997 and January 1999 (Fig. 2f).

In conclusion, the strength (2.8°–3.5°C) and uncertainty (0.5°C) of the 1877/78 El Niño event are quantified by evaluating the selection of certain parameters in the ERSSTv5 ensemble. The strength of the 1877/78 El Niño appears approximately equal to those during 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16.

 

[BlizzardWx]

I added these animations to my website if you want to make them. You can see the cold water building up to the west now with with the crazy warmth to the east.  

Edit: Just noticed South America is missing ha but I will fix it

[LakePaste25]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is a stronger event than the 1877-1878 reanalysis. It has significantly more oceanic heat to work with. That event produced what is probably the highest consecutive three month DJF departures for a single CONUS long term weather station. So not a stretch to say this is the strongest El Niño event in a long time.

 

MSP

Dec 1877…..+14.5°

Jan 1878…..+10.2°

Feb 1878…..+15.8°

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0650.1.xml

The strong 1877/78 El Niño in ERSSTv5 is consistent with independent SOI index derived from sea level pressure measurements in Darwin and Tahiti (Trenberth 1984). This El Niño event in ERSSTv5 is also consistent with the precipitation and temperature proxy data derived from tree rings and coral reefs and from the great famine record in southeastern Asia and Africa (Kiladis and Diaz 1986; Allan et al. 1991; D’Arrigo et al. 2008; Garden 2008; Hao et al. 2010; Räsänen et al. 2016; Singh et al. 2018; Lough et al. 2018). For example, Singh et al. (2018) used the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) in Asia and demonstrated a record-breaking El Niño during 1877/78. D’Arrigo et al. (2008) used the PDSI in Australia and Lough et al. (2018) used the degree heating month index (DHMI) derived from coral reef in the tropical oceans; both showed a strong El Niño event during 1877/78.

The strong 1877/78 El Niño in ERSSTv5 is consistent with that in HadSST1 (Fig. 2c; dotted blue) (Rayner et al. 2003). The Niño-3 index is approximately 0.5°C lower in HadISST1 than in ERSSTv5 from January 1877 to February 1878, which is in the range of the uncertainty of ERSSTv5 as indicated in Fig. 5d and Table 1. The temporal correlation between ERSSTv5 and HadISST1 Niño-3 indices between January 1877 and January 1879 is high (approximately 0.94). The consistency between the 1997/98 El Niño events in ERSSTv5 and HadSST1 is very good with strong correlations (0.99) between January 1997 and January 1999 (Fig. 2f).

In conclusion, the strength (2.8°–3.5°C) and uncertainty (0.5°C) of the 1877/78 El Niño event are quantified by evaluating the selection of certain parameters in the ERSSTv5 ensemble. The strength of the 1877/78 El Niño appears approximately equal to those during 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16.

 

The main difference with 77-78 and modern El Niño events, is that the 77-78 warmth was confined to the upper midwest. Departures in NYC, DC, and Boston were not that impressive.  In fact, NYC in Jan 1878 had a mean temperature below 30 degrees. 

Modern El Niño events, the upper midwest ridge is not only displaced eastward, but it’s likely more expansive, so places like NYC see major positive departures such as what occurred in December 2015. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/14/2026 at 7:39 AM, bluewave said:

There is a difference between lighthearted humor and passive-aggressive behavior. Most people want to read about the strongest El Niño on record rather than have to wade through these types of nonsense or banter posts. While I take it all in stride, it will cause others to just leave the forum. 

I have zero qualms with the folks that have zero sense of humor exiting stage right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/14/2026 at 8:20 AM, mitchnick said:

I come from the MA forum where these kinds of posts are routine and keep things entertaining. Much like the NE forum as a matter of fact. None of it is meant as a personal attack. But vigorous discussion and disagreement is also routine in both forums. I don't believe I've crossed the line. We obviously have different personalities/viewpoints, but that's what you get in a public forum. It's unavoidable, hence the "ignore" feature is available. I think that's the only option available to either of us.

100%. I have seen zero personal attacks from you....snowman launched attacks like that routinely, for all of the valuable info that he added.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/14/2026 at 11:15 AM, bluewave said:

It’s also a challenge when you aren’t speaking with someone in person. Many not written cues can get lost on these forums. I am sure if we all met in person things would be different.

Also goes to how many interactions these days occur online vs in person prior to social media and the internet. So we don’t have the benefit of nonverbal cues which are common in actual life. 

Even with all of issues that pop up from time to on these forums, the benefits outweigh any negatives. Weather models and past statistics for various stations used to be very limited before the age of the internet.

I can remember the old Alden Difax machines that was the only way to get weather models. Plus there were no freely available databases containing past reanalysis products with 500 mb patterns  and temperatures for any given month or period. 

 

100%. The NE forum has had countless get togethers.

[BuffaloWeather]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

100%. The NE forum have had countless get togethers.

We've transitioned to discord from the upstate community and have met around 20-30 people so far, many from AMX. Many of us have become IRL friends and hang out outside of weather now. We storm chase together multiple times a year. So much better than forums. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

We've transitioned to discord from the upstate community and have met 20-30 people so far in the upstate community, many from AMX. So much better than forums. 

I just feel like discord is much more difficult to follow.....it's just rapid faire posts that just scroll into oblivion. I prefer the pages on the forum.

[forkyfork]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have zero qualms with the folks that have zero sense of humor exiting stage right.

and now this board is a wishcast echo chamber. congrats

[qg_omega]

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is a stronger event than the 1877-1878 reanalysis. It has significantly more oceanic heat to work with. That event produced what is probably the highest consecutive three month DJF departures for a single CONUS long term weather station. So not a stretch to say this is the strongest El Niño event in a long time.

 

MSP

Dec 1877…..+14.5°

Jan 1878…..+10.2°

Feb 1878…..+15.8°

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0650.1.xml

The strong 1877/78 El Niño in ERSSTv5 is consistent with independent SOI index derived from sea level pressure measurements in Darwin and Tahiti (Trenberth 1984). This El Niño event in ERSSTv5 is also consistent with the precipitation and temperature proxy data derived from tree rings and coral reefs and from the great famine record in southeastern Asia and Africa (Kiladis and Diaz 1986; Allan et al. 1991; D’Arrigo et al. 2008; Garden 2008; Hao et al. 2010; Räsänen et al. 2016; Singh et al. 2018; Lough et al. 2018). For example, Singh et al. (2018) used the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) in Asia and demonstrated a record-breaking El Niño during 1877/78. D’Arrigo et al. (2008) used the PDSI in Australia and Lough et al. (2018) used the degree heating month index (DHMI) derived from coral reef in the tropical oceans; both showed a strong El Niño event during 1877/78.

The strong 1877/78 El Niño in ERSSTv5 is consistent with that in HadSST1 (Fig. 2c; dotted blue) (Rayner et al. 2003). The Niño-3 index is approximately 0.5°C lower in HadISST1 than in ERSSTv5 from January 1877 to February 1878, which is in the range of the uncertainty of ERSSTv5 as indicated in Fig. 5d and Table 1. The temporal correlation between ERSSTv5 and HadISST1 Niño-3 indices between January 1877 and January 1879 is high (approximately 0.94). The consistency between the 1997/98 El Niño events in ERSSTv5 and HadSST1 is very good with strong correlations (0.99) between January 1997 and January 1999 (Fig. 2f).

In conclusion, the strength (2.8°–3.5°C) and uncertainty (0.5°C) of the 1877/78 El Niño event are quantified by evaluating the selection of certain parameters in the ERSSTv5 ensemble. The strength of the 1877/78 El Niño appears approximately equal to those during 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16.

 

Not sure how you can’t think we are going to have the warmest winter on record for CONUS

[EasternLI]

Well there you go. The current WWB is another record breaking one. As was suspected would be the case with the latest MJO assist.