2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[donsutherland1]

Some statistics for the Southeast concerning snowstorms during strong El Niño winters are below. Atlanta may have among the best chance of seeing a measurable snowstorm this upcoming winter.

[annunciated]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some statistics for the Southeast concerning snowstorms during strong El Niño winters are below. Atlanta may have among the best chance of seeing a measurable snowstorm this upcoming winter.

I hope Athens can get some of that magic too, lol.

[EasternLI]

Does the AAO signal anything to us (NH)? I don't remember. I want to say no, but I feel like I've heard that it did somewhere. Just wondering because it's been very positive through most of our summer. Which is the SH winter. Even getting above 4SD for a bit at the tail end of June. 

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s also a challenge when you aren’t speaking with someone in person. Many not written cues can get lost on these forums. I am sure if we all met in person things would be different.

Also goes to how many interactions these days occur online vs in person prior to social media and the internet. So we don’t have the benefit of nonverbal cues which are common in actual life. 

Even with all of issues that pop up from time to on these forums, the benefits outweigh any negatives. Weather models and past statistics for various stations used to be very limited before the age of the internet.

I can remember the old Alden Difax machines that was the only way to get weather models. Plus there were no freely available databases containing past reanalysis products with 500 mb patterns  and temperatures for any given month or period. 

 

Ive said it before and ill say it again. I do not agree with alot of the stuff you post, but you always remain respectful so I have no problem agreeing to disagree on some things. This is the huge difference between you and snowman. 

[EasternLI]

These are big claims, don't see why not though TBH.

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, annunciated said:

I hope Athens can get some of that magic too, lol.

I agree. 1972-73, 1982-83, and 2015-16 had 1 or more days with measurable snowfall in Athens.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

These are big claims, don't see why not though TBH.

 

 

 

When measuring enso strength you’re talking tenths of a degree making a difference as far as records. No one can convince me that we know the strength of an El Niño from the 1700s. Even 1877-1878 is questionable down to tenths of a degree IMO. 

[mitchnick]

47 minutes ago, roardog said:

When measuring enso strength you’re talking tenths of a degree making a difference as far as records. No one can convince me that we know the strength of an El Niño from the 1700s. Even 1877-1878 is questionable down to tenths of a degree IMO. 

Yep. Easy to make a claim when there's no way to know its accuracy. But it's great for clicks!

[annunciated]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yep. Easy to make a claim when there's no way to know its accuracy. But it's great for clicks!

It's why the notion from some people that this is the Nino of the Millenium (250-1000 years in some Xwitter post) is just crazy, and yet again, it's great for clicks.

[EasternLI]

23 minutes ago, roardog said:

When measuring enso strength you’re talking tenths of a degree making a difference as far as records. No one can convince me that we know the strength of an El Niño from the 1700s. Even 1877-1878 is questionable down to tenths of a degree IMO. 

Yeah, that's a totally valid point. Any records from that long ago are questionable at best. I know there are reanalysis methods but still. Wish there was a better normalized way to look at it. Not as tied to temperature anomalies. Especially if rising global temperatures are a concern. I get that RONI is attempting to do that, but not sure how I feel about that yet either. What I do know is that out of the entire JMA archive of VP 200 anomalies. This event (the current 30 day mean obs posted below) is already now more impressive looking than anything in their entire record. Which goes back to the 40's. That includes 15-16, 97-98, 82-83, 72-73 or anything else. Actually everything else in that data. At least as it stands right now and during this part of the year. That, to me, is making this event stand out much more than any temp anomalies ever could. It's fascinating to watch something extreme like this unfold. As an aside, I do not have high hopes for winter here locally. Very strong enso either + or - generally sucks historically here where I am. I will firmly believe that until proven otherwise because I've already lived through it. Extreme events are always interesting though, and this el nino is definitely that.

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

When measuring enso strength you’re talking tenths of a degree making a difference as far as records. No one can convince me that we know the strength of an El Niño from the 1700s. Even 1877-1878 is questionable down to tenths of a degree IMO. 

so the strongest nino in almost 300 years. damb

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, roardog said:

When measuring enso strength you’re talking tenths of a degree making a difference as far as records. No one can convince me that we know the strength of an El Niño from the 1700s. Even 1877-1878 is questionable down to tenths of a degree IMO. 

That’s where the great and long SOI monthly records can be useful. There’s a good -correlation between SOI and 3.4 SSTa. SOI goes way back to 1876.

[roardog]

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

so the strongest nino in almost 300 years. damb

It can go both ways. What we think could have been a monster Nino in 1789 might not have even been stronger than 2015-2016. That would make the current Nino even more impressive. 

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, roardog said:

It can go both ways. What we think could have been a monster Nino in 1789 might not have even been stronger than 2015-2016. That would make the current Nino even more impressive. 

We can't get Oisst and Coral Reefs to agree on SST/SSTA's on current conditions NOW, and we're supposed to believe numbers from 100+ years ago? They're just salesmen.

[LakePaste25]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

It can go both ways. What we think could have been a monster Nino in 1789 might not have even been stronger than 2015-2016. That would make the current Nino even more impressive. 

Definitely true for temperature records too. There’s no possible way that Phoenixville, PA hit 111 in the early 1900s. Many of these should be tossed IMO. 

[roardog]

28 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Definitely true for temperature records too. There’s no possible way that Phoenixville, PA hit 111 in the early 1900s. Many of these should be tossed IMO. 

Yeah. There’s some questionable temp records from the early days of record keeping for sure.

[michsnowfreak]

35 minutes ago, roardog said:

Yeah. There’s some questionable temp records from the early days of record keeping for sure.

I feel its moreso with the coop stations. Ive seen some ridiculous temps of both extremes in old coop notes. I feel most major climate sites are pretty accurate to the 1870s.