Is we back? February discussion thread

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will see what 12z does to see if 6z trend  real or fake, but I’m not feeling Thursday night doing much of anything 

It never looked good 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean there has been a couple of near misses...and Monday sliding south. 

I get it…don’t take offense, but I think sometimes you get a little self centric.

We all get boned. Any single one of us rarely jackpots. There’s this narrative that I steal big events up here, but I have 2 events where I’ve gotten 20” or more in the 20 years I’ve been here. 21” in Jan 11 and the 34” in Dec 20. Otherwise, I rack up the 10-15” type events.

I asked you the other day how many 20”+ events you’ve had since EUSWX started. I’m going to guess more than 2 and I know you had that 30” burger where the NWS didn’t have you in the final PNS.

I guess my point is that we would all have more if things trended more our way. Considering the BOS total and what S NH did, I don’t feel like you were that screwed. It was just the part of the gradient of the storm.

Just my $0.02…not trying to instigate.

[SnoSki14]

35 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

nice dude that's an amazing winter

Keep in mind our numbers are substantially lower on average than theirs. 

Their totals so far would be top 3 all time for us. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

64"...good season, but could easily be in the 80s right now.

You’re a foot ahead of me. I haven’t quite had average yet. 2-2.5” today got me over 50” though.

[dendrite]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Re the blizzard, it in fact made a late adjustment toward reality. It was just slightly too far NW of what actually transpired the day-ish before, and then made a 'within error expectation' bump - which is obfuscated by the fact that there was theoretical room for NW adjustments prior to that.  It was a bit of journey, the total error of which - to me - was irrelevant really ...  I guess I'm saying that late bump was a no fault - considering that the other global runs were pretty bad until just 60 hours or even 48 hours out, comparatively.

Not accounting for the rest of the winter/other events.. .just the blizzard.  I was rollin' eyes and annoyed when the bump back SE triggered street trash. 

Agree 100%. If we’re calling these models “guidance”…it definitely guided us along the correct path more than the others did. But I think it does matter come go time. I don’t put a lot of faith in most of the hires mesos (I think I made that clear the other day) so there was a point close in where the GFS was on an island compared to the other globals wrt NW extent. I was expecting it to meet consensus so it was no big deal to me, but for those believing it religiously on the northern edge got a bad surprise on 00z 23rd.

[Great Snow 1717]

43 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Need some more? Just put new fronts on the power wagon last weekend 

As long as the clipper pattern remains in place the northeast will be prone to cold shots and snow..

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It never looked good 

Tomorrow night or next week lol. There are so many. 

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

64" here.

Didn't think WOR was that far ahead of the mean. More than Caribou, lol. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I get it…don’t take offense, but I think sometimes you get a little self centric.

We all get boned. Any single one of us rarely jackpots. There’s this narrative that I steal big events up here, but I have 2 events where I’ve gotten 20” or more in the 20 years I’ve been here. 21” in Jan 11 and the 34” in Dec 20. Otherwise, I rack up the 10-15” type events.

I asked you the other day how many 20”+ events you’ve had since EUSWX started. I’m going to guess more than 2 and I know you had that 30” burger where the NWS didn’t have you in the final PNS.

I guess my point is that we would all have more if things trended more our way. Considering the BOS total and what S NH did, I don’t feel like you were that screwed. It was just the part of the gradient of the storm.

Just my $0.02…not trying to instigate.

Yup, absolutely, but I have had pretty much the lowest relative to average over the past 10 years considering I've been largely just too far south/close to the coast for the large interior/NNE events. Sure, I got thrown a bone on 2/1/2021, 1/7/2024, but the numbers don't lie...there is a reason I went 8 years without getting within 10" of average.

I wasn't implying that I got screwed in a mesoscale sense on Monday...maybe a bit considering there was a weak H7 band to the NW, but that was mainly a collective screwing ...agreed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You’re a foot ahead of me. I haven’t quite had average yet. 2-2.5” today got me over 50” though.

We have spoken about how this was due to happen because we are usually close, and you had been killing me the past several years.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Tomorrow night or next week lol. There are so many. 

Tomorrow night 

[Layman]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yup, absolutely, but I have had pretty much the lowest relative to average over the past 10 years considering I've been largely just too far south/close to the coast for the large interior/NNE events. Sure, I got thrown a bone on 2/1/2021, 1/7/2024, but the numbers don't lie...there is a reason I went 8 years without getting within 10" of average.

I wasn't implying that I got screwed in a mesoscale sense on Monday...maybe a bit considering there was a weak H7 band to the NW, but that was mainly a collective screwing ...agreed.

 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, Layman said:

 

I had 142 2/3” in 07-08

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I had 142 2/3” in 07-08

I'd give anything to get another December like that.

[SJonesWX]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I had 142 2/3” in 07-08

I ONLY had 116". I got PORKED again 

[WxWatcher007]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tomorrow night 

2-3 days ago it was a hit. 23rd runs on GFS and 22nd runs on Euro were last time the had something meaningful. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

I ONLY had 116". I got PORKED again 

I didn't really complain in 2015, when I had 115.5" and the south shore had like 135".

[SJonesWX]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't really complain in 2015, when I had 115.5" and the south shore had like 135".

thanks for reminding me. I ONLY had 109" in 2015. Porked to the north and south!

[weatherwiz]

Funny how the 12z GFS continues to be north  

 

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Funny how the 12z GFS continues to be north  

 

AIGFS also north. Even still, not much more than an inch 

On an island again - But I think this time it caves hard 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Funny how the 12z GFS continues to be north  

 

Really on an island

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Really on an island

For tomorrow night? 

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Funny how the 12z GFS continues to be north  

 

We still watching .. with a bit of a perk 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

We still watching .. with a bit of a perk 

It’s not happening

[CoastalWx]

Next week is South. Winter is almost done now. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We still watching .. with a bit of a perk 

There doesn't seem to be anything that could really support that solution. 

[Kitz Craver]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week is South. Winter is almost done now. 

It’s been waffling, could easily come back north