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Is we back? February discussion thread


mahk_webstah
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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean there has been a couple of near misses...and Monday sliding south. 

I get it…don’t take offense, but I think sometimes you get a little self centric.

We all get boned. Any single one of us rarely jackpots. There’s this narrative that I steal big events up here, but I have 2 events where I’ve gotten 20” or more in the 20 years I’ve been here. 21” in Jan 11 and the 34” in Dec 20. Otherwise, I rack up the 10-15” type events.

I asked you the other day how many 20”+ events you’ve had since EUSWX started. I’m going to guess more than 2 and I know you had that 30” burger where the NWS didn’t have you in the final PNS.

I guess my point is that we would all have more if things trended more our way. Considering the BOS total and what S NH did, I don’t feel like you were that screwed. It was just the part of the gradient of the storm.

Just my $0.02…not trying to instigate.

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16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Re the blizzard, it in fact made a late adjustment toward reality. It was just slightly too far NW of what actually transpired the day-ish before, and then made a 'within error expectation' bump - which is obfuscated by the fact that there was theoretical room for NW adjustments prior to that.  It was a bit of journey, the total error of which - to me - was irrelevant really ...  I guess I'm saying that late bump was a no fault - considering that the other global runs were pretty bad until just 60 hours or even 48 hours out, comparatively.

Not accounting for the rest of the winter/other events.. .just the blizzard.  I was rollin' eyes and annoyed when the bump back SE triggered street trash. 

Agree 100%. If we’re calling these models “guidance”…it definitely guided us along the correct path more than the others did. But I think it does matter come go time. I don’t put a lot of faith in most of the hires mesos (I think I made that clear the other day) so there was a point close in where the GFS was on an island compared to the other globals wrt NW extent. I was expecting it to meet consensus so it was no big deal to me, but for those believing it religiously on the northern edge got a bad surprise on 00z 23rd.

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16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I get it…don’t take offense, but I think sometimes you get a little self centric.

We all get boned. Any single one of us rarely jackpots. There’s this narrative that I steal big events up here, but I have 2 events where I’ve gotten 20” or more in the 20 years I’ve been here. 21” in Jan 11 and the 34” in Dec 20. Otherwise, I rack up the 10-15” type events.

I asked you the other day how many 20”+ events you’ve had since EUSWX started. I’m going to guess more than 2 and I know you had that 30” burger where the NWS didn’t have you in the final PNS.

I guess my point is that we would all have more if things trended more our way. Considering the BOS total and what S NH did, I don’t feel like you were that screwed. It was just the part of the gradient of the storm.

Just my $0.02…not trying to instigate.

Yup, absolutely, but I have had pretty much the lowest relative to average over the past 10 years considering I've been largely just too far south/close to the coast for the large interior/NNE events. Sure, I got thrown a bone on 2/1/2021, 1/7/2024, but the numbers don't lie...there is a reason I went 8 years without getting within 10" of average.

I wasn't implying that I got screwed in a mesoscale sense on Monday...maybe a bit considering there was a weak H7 band to the NW, but that was mainly a collective screwing ...agreed.

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yup, absolutely, but I have had pretty much the lowest relative to average over the past 10 years considering I've been largely just too far south/close to the coast for the large interior/NNE events. Sure, I got thrown a bone on 2/1/2021, 1/7/2024, but the numbers don't lie...there is a reason I went 8 years without getting within 10" of average.

I wasn't implying that I got screwed in a mesoscale sense on Monday...maybe a bit considering there was a weak H7 band to the NW, but that was mainly a collective screwing ...agreed.

numbers-dont.gif 

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