Is we back? February discussion thread

[Great Snow 1717]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

My baby loves the winter

He likely tolerates winter a lot better than some  of the people here...lol

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Canadian might be good for weekend. 

Solid warning event next weekend on GGEM for a lot of SNE. Gonna see a lot of solutions on this. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Solid warning event next weekend on GGEM for a lot of SNE. Gonna see a lot of solutions on this. 

One thing fairly certain is there’s no torch / furnace rainer 

[EastonSN+]

This SHOULD get us back to phase 8 by the 2nd week of March. Perhaps we get one last good window.

[Typhoon Tip]

D10 GFS ...this is the truer spring thrust - first of the year.

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Solid warning event next weekend on GGEM for a lot of SNE. Gonna see a lot of solutions on this. 

Wish it were a bit colder and SW for CT.

[Typhoon Tip]

Using the indices... March begins in balm.  Whether that's merely relative to climatology, or actually feels that way between the front door and destination, notwithstanding.  But that -WPO is retrograding in the materialized spatial ens cinemas, at the same time there's a -PNA/+EPO/Neutral NAO; a wholesale mass field scaffolding that doesn't leave a whole helluva lot of other alternative impressions. Particularly when the +EPO has -2 SD cold over Alaska.  Cold  AK typically results in warm departures over the GL-NE/SE Can.   

We'll see... 

Can't say I'm opposed ( personally ...) I've checked out.  I'm ready.   I'll be objective about "late" event possibilities, but in terms of druthers?   I'm all about lesser clothed ladies and outdoor laze faire and sports.  

In the interest of fairness... whatever happens this week can still get winter antics done for winter enthusiasts.  The end of the week still looks like a mixy/ice potential... But it's low confidence by virtue of the fact that the moderately (still/residual) higher speed of the flow foot is flattish through then, which is very typically not a good deterministic regime for modeling.  

[Snowcrazed71]

It's funny reading the different comments from yesterday to today. 

Yesterday several of you were so excited and on bored with a wintry and snowy middle to end of next week. 

Today the same people are frustrated and talking about how it's going to be warmer and not wintry and this is the pattern we're in. Same people, same comments, same reactions. Haven't we learn by now to just wait until we get a few days out to know exactly what's going to happen? I'm on neither camp as far as it being wintry and snowy or warmer and rainy. Not until we get to midweek. Then I think I can jump in on which direction it's going.

[JKEisMan]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wish it were a bit colder and SW for CT.

Don’t worry , it won’t play out that way. Lots of time for changes both good and bad.

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Using the indices... March begins in balm.  Whether that's merely relative to climatology, or actually feels that way between the front door and destination, notwithstanding.  But that -WPO is retrograding in the materialized spatial ens cinemas, at the same time there's a -PNA/+EPO/Neutral NAO; a wholesale mass field scaffolding that doesn't leave a whole helluva lot of other alternative impressions. Particularly when the +EPO has -2 SD cold over Alaska.  Cold  AK typically results in warm departures over the GL-NE/SE Can.   

We'll see... 

Can't say I'm opposed ( personally ...) I've checked out.  I'm ready.   I'll be objective about "late" event possibilities, but in terms of druthers?   I'm all about lesser clothed ladies and outdoor laze faire and sports.  

In the interest of fairness... whatever happens this week can still get winter antics done for winter enthusiasts.  The end of the week still looks like a mixy/ice potential... But it's low confidence by virtue of the fact that the moderately (still/residual) higher speed of the flow foot is flattish through then, which is very typically not a good deterministic regime for modeling.  

PNA seems to be rising towards the end of the run as well, perhaps in response to the MJO wave. AO is variable.

[Great Snow 1717]

15 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

It's funny reading the different comments from yesterday to today. 

Yesterday several of you were so excited and on bored with a wintry and snowy middle to end of next week. 

Today the same people are frustrated and talking about how it's going to be warmer and not wintry and this is the pattern we're in. Same people, same comments, same reactions. Haven't we learn by now to just wait until we get a few days out to know exactly what's going to happen? I'm on neither camp as far as it being wintry and snowy or warmer and rainy. Not until we get to midweek. Then I think I can jump in on which direction it's going.

Those people ride the model roller coaster every run every day...

[qg_omega]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

D10 GFS ...this is the truer spring thrust - first of the year.

We historic warmth

[VivaManchVegas]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs just steins the mid week event here and warms up later in the week.

Come to papa...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Kind of a blah’ day here.  
Grey overcast and mid 30s.

[kdxken]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Kind of a blah’ day here.  
Grey overcast and mid 30s.

Absolutely, I was just going to post that myself. 34° and socked in.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

It can only come so far north now. Massive amount of dry polar air sitting over New England and the Ocean east. LI might see a couple 

Yes, this is what I meant last night. I think the prevailing sentiment has been that it would probably come back enough to c*ck tease everyone til the end, but not a real threat to 99% of SNE.

[VivaManchVegas]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Who in their right mind wants rain?

Me... raises hand and backs out of room. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Using the indices... March begins in balm.  Whether that's merely relative to climatology, or actually feels that way between the front door and destination, notwithstanding.  But that -WPO is retrograding in the materialized spatial ens cinemas, at the same time there's a -PNA/+EPO/Neutral NAO; a wholesale mass field scaffolding that doesn't leave a whole helluva lot of other alternative impressions. Particularly when the +EPO has -2 SD cold over Alaska.  Cold  AK typically results in warm departures over the GL-NE/SE Can.   

We'll see... 

Can't say I'm opposed ( personally ...) I've checked out.  I'm ready.   I'll be objective about "late" event possibilities, but in terms of druthers?   I'm all about lesser clothed ladies and outdoor laze faire and sports.  

In the interest of fairness... whatever happens this week can still get winter antics done for winter enthusiasts.  The end of the week still looks like a mixy/ice potential... But it's low confidence by virtue of the fact that the moderately (still/residual) higher speed of the flow foot is flattish through then, which is very typically not a good deterministic regime for modeling.  

I expect another 10-20" on the season for MBY.

[Typhoon Tip]

54 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

We historic warmth

Perhaps ... It needs more for that, though.  

As is...it's a spring warm thrust.   The surface synoptics underneath all that, lags a bit yet.  It can potentially get there ... it's teetering with ballooning, but out of deference to the incredible persistence of this winter to pick on the eastern mid latitude continent for cold ... who knows. 

It is normal at this sort of range for the surface to lag response to deeper layer forcing... 570 heights arcing over spatially large progressive ridge during a -PNA has room for warmer temps to en masse expand, so it's not impossible.   It's just not there yet. And the -PNA's non-linear constructive interference could help that ridge get bigger and cleaner.

Plus, we're after the solar min during seasonality's steepening recovery slope  ( in an era of CC just to chap some asses )  

As an op ed, I just see this winter's cold journey as being very enabling.  We've been in an escaped state of mind provided by a cold predicament that was really ( in true and fair reality) confined specifically to this nodal region of the hemisphere.  And I would argue that removing the ~10 day warm anomaly during mid January, likely makes this preordaining cold imby bias that much more obvious on the right side.  

 

The larger, longer termed reality isn't that.  It is easier to go warmer than it is to go cooler in the world of present era, and to an exceptionally high degree ( pun hopefully annoying -) of confidence, that will be the case for generations to come.    Warm signals will tend to out perform the cool ones, if only by decimals over the long haul/arithmetic of climate.. that is clad.  That has to be the case. Because, what one wants is irrelevant against objective mathematics.   Euphemistically, you can simply say it getswarm at lesser excuse to do so, than cool.    

So where I am going is... folks might be surprised when the pattern finally and more viscerally does change ... because the other direction could be more than they've been inclined to think. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Stein on both events. 

Tenor of the season.

[TheSnowman]

49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

We'll see... 

Can't say I'm opposed ( personally ...) I've checked out.  I'm ready.   I'll be objective about "late" event possibilities, but in terms of druthers?   I'm all about lesser clothed ladies and outdoor laze faire and sports.  

 

GOD!  Everyone on this thread is Ready for Spring on February 14th!?!?  After 3 Horrifying winters in a Row?

 

And now EVEN TIP IS DONE!?  What the HELL has happened in here!!  (Lesser Clothed Ladies was funny)  

 

And TorchTiger SUCKS.  Truly, What are you doing on a Snow Weenie Board with That mentality!?    

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tenor of the season.

It is. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Clouds FTW today. Even some flurries 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

GOD!  Everyone on this thread is Ready for Spring on February 14th!?!?  After 3 Horrifying winters in a Row?

 

And now EVEN TIP IS DONE!?  What the HELL has happened in here!!  (Lesser Clothed Ladies was funny)  

 

And TorchTiger SUCKS.  Truly, What are you doing on a Snow Weenie Board with That mentality!?    

We’re all succumbing to Tip’s Hadley Cell.

[CoastalWx]

Jesus you see that low in the plains and almost think ptype issues, but nope….stein. Blows.

[CoastalWx]

Euro AI with a couple of decent looks over the next 8 days or so. 

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro AI with a couple of decent looks over the next 8 days or so. 

We deep winter 

[Typhoon Tip]

mm... What I want is just as irrelevant. 

Shit I check out every year at this time.  It doesn't mean jack.                                  I.    hate.    winter.   after.   Feb 15

With the hypocritical exception of something more extraordinary     ...which I have elaborated/admitted all this many times in the past am morally fine with it. LOL 

It is actually entering a frustrating time of year for me.  Because objectively, we don't get warmth to stick around here until... 3 weeks in late July for that matter.  Aprils?  H'ho man.  I tell ya, I'm not that far off from my mortgage being paid ... at which time, I will be free to scope out salvation residences during this region's spring climate rectum 

[metagraphica]

27 minutes ago, VivaManchVegas said:

Me... raises hand and backs out of room. 

There are a few of us here that would be happier with warmth and/or rain.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Off and on flurries here today.