Is we back? February discussion thread

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ginx would love that.

After that IVT absolutely 

[Typhoon Tip]

It's almost like the GFS is dropping the W into a -EPO tendency in the first week, and then walking away

Meanwhile, the index interpretation is offers uncertainy.  That N. Pac thing from late Novie through Dec is back in its haunt,

but it's not clear whether it will mean same or similar or somehow idiosyncratically different over the eastern N/A continent.   This looks like a cold stormy pattern at a glance but that ridge up there is sort of in the hybrid WPO/EPO space which complicates matters, particularly if it is resonant and not moving.

 

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Verbatim that shortwave NW of Buffalo is gonna kick it out. Need that southwest. 

That's 150 miles N of 0z let's get a trend going 

[Damage In Tolland]

It’s coming . Not a big un.. but snow Sunday 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's 150 miles N of 0z let's get a trend going 

I dunno, setup sucks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I honestly hope tonight underperforms.....it's just at a nightmare of a time. Just get me a big un or get out of my life winter, thanks.

[Frostyinthe603]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Under the radar aspect about that warm up in January.

I argue it was not "thermodynamic" in character - in other words, dry air warm up.  It's not the same beast as other.

The measly 3" of white stone snow pack was incredibly resistant.  We really only went down to bare ground in this part of the interior ... not until the last day or two of that span.  Otherwise, a lot of 46 F highs over that apparently impervious to melt.   

It matters meteorologically because warmth in the atmosphere is both kinetic and also water vapor. But a dryer air mass will withstand just temperature more so than when it is accompanied by a DP that is also above freezing.     

I cleared an untouched area to access a trailer, and it was pure powder top to bottom. 

[metagraphica]

Impressive seeing how cold Long Island sound is. Keeping those shoreline temps down. Used to only seeing this as a springtime phenomenon.

[CoastalWx]

Logan is 29 with a seabreeze lol. 

[dendrite]

33° here and at Toll

[metagraphica]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

33° here and at Toll

A balmy 36 IMBY.  I think the 'tenor' of this winter opera has sung his last notes. The fat lady is in the back warming up.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

A balmy 36 IMBY.  I think the 'tenor' of this winter opera has sung his last notes. The fat lady is in the back warming up.

17 and 18 should have said that with the 70’s and 80 degree temps, and then winter roared back.  Hard to say this on 2/10 in SNE. 

[Snowedin]

It’s all over. Shut em down, get them shorties out of the attic and let’s start tanning those beautiful napes baby! 

[CoastalWx]

Euro AI way south. This is toast. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro AI way south. This is toast. 

Yup, then we toast after. 

[ineedsnow]

12z Euro also meh

[Damage In Tolland]

Love all the giving up only to watch it come back by Thursday . EPS FTW 

[powderfreak]

43 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

A balmy 36 IMBY.  I think the 'tenor' of this winter opera has sung his last notes. The fat lady is in the back warming up.

I wouldn't go outside.  Latest Dept of Fish & Game geotracking map has gray wolf collar #45B on the move towards Salem, CT.

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Love all the giving up only to watch it come back by Thursday . EPS FTW 

The AI is pretty good at sniffing…it’s been down on this, so probably gotta say this doesn’t look to good.  

[ORH_wxman]

Let’s lock in next Thursday/Friday on euro. 
 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s lock in next Thursday/Friday on euro. 
 

My kind of Meh

[Ginx snewx]

35 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Yup, then we toast after. 

Maybe you...

[ma blizzard]

so much for the warmup next week on that OP Euro run 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

so much for the warmup next week on that OP Euro run 

Euro has been significantly blockier in the longer range than the GFS…which is producing wildly different sensible wx for us on those runs. GFS tries to torch us to 60F while euro has multiple winter wx threats.  

[78Blizzard]

Euro says "What torch"?

[dendrite]

[weatherwiz]

I think we're definitely going to be introducing PAC air into much of the country but that doesn't mean we can't or won't snow nor does it mean we can get colder weather at times. The upcoming pattern though looks a bit volatile and active so there is that. I don't want to say we're looking at a gradient pattern but something along those lines is definitely possible. It seems there is higher confidence in how the Pacific evolves (though guidance has struggled with this) with lower confidence in the evolution of the Arctic which may be tied into the models toying around with SSW potential. 

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

No. No. No. It’s a cold and snowy run bro. That’s tenor.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro has been significantly blockier in the longer range than the GFS…which is producing wildly different sensible wx for us on those runs. GFS tries to torch us to 60F while euro has multiple winter wx threats.  

The EURO sends the MJO more onto the COD, whereas other guidance enters the MC....going to do a write up soon about the favored option.

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

If this happens I am done lol. WOR nightmare.

Don't do it for something that pedestrian. It can get way way way worse.