Is we back? February discussion thread

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

2/7, 2/12, 2/15

Can we bat .667? I'd like to hit on at least one of the latter two, having the higher upside. 

2/7 looks likely but prob not much…like C-2” type deal. Though I’d watch your area for a bit more. 
 

Wednesday seems least likely for anything. Several pieces of guidance have nothing. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2-4 Saturday . 3-5 midweek biggie next weekend. Lots of snow coming for all here 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

2-4 Saturday . 3-5 midweek biggie next weekend. Lots of snow coming for all here 

Started the IPAs early. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Started the IPAs early. 

Can always adjust up 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Can always adjust up 

Start with 2 beers at 4pm and adjust up each hrrr run?

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Started the IPAs early. 

That’s how modeling looks as of tonight . Maybe it changes 

[JACKASS]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Start with 2 beers at 4pm and adjust up each hrrr run?

Add an inch for each beer after.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We would sacrifice one of Brett’s wives to make it happen. 

 

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

New episode this Sunday

Lmaooooo. This is so foul. 

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s how modeling looks as of tonight . Maybe it changes 

No modeling looks like that.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

No modeling looks like that.

What isn’t it showing? Which event?

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So sensitive

the wolf unseen

[FXWX]

46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

2-4 Saturday . 3-5 midweek biggie next weekend. Lots of snow coming for all here 

I wouldn't be completely shocked if someone sees 2+ or 3+ amounts across coastal eastern Mass or the Cape where some OES magic occurs, but this is a coating to 1.5 inch event (iso 2") for most of SNE...

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What isn’t it showing? Which event?

Midweek has not much support....its been off and on on guidance, but overall seems to be decreasing in probability as we get closer. The better signal is next weekend. 

[ORH_wxman]

Model continuity on anything past Tuesday of next week has been AWFUL too...GFS coming out looks nothing like 12z at D7-8. 

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I wouldn't be completely shocked if someone sees 2+ or 3+ amounts across coastal eastern Mass or the Cape where some OES magic occurs, but this is a coating to 1.5 inch event (iso 2") for most of SNE...

I don’t see that . This is very similar tin the NYE event 

[CoastalWx]

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What isn’t it showing? Which event?

For Saturday. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Midweek has not much support....its been off and on on guidance, but overall seems to be decreasing in probability as we get closer. The better signal is next weekend. 

Been ignoring.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I wouldn't be completely shocked if someone sees 2+ or 3+ amounts across coastal eastern Mass or the Cape where some OES magic occurs, but this is a coating to 1.5 inch event (iso 2") for most of SNE...

Yea, unremarkable.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

This was exactly my point yesterday and the day before. Folks posting 384 clown maps of temps, and precip, and acting as if that was not going to change at all?   And that was gonna be the final outcome.  I never get that mentality?  
 

But yet if somebody posts a blizzard at 384 hrs, it’s laughed at. But somehow the same clown range 384 hr temp and precip map is somehow more believable, just because folks are upset that we missed the big coastal storm that hammered the SE.  that idea is just lost on me.  
 

And when one questions it, we’re labeled as ACATT….??  It Beats me? 

Well, in the grand scheme of things, as much as you may not like it...a moderation to somewhat above average climo temps is a much more higher probability, and less anomalous outcome than a blizzard...which is why one is laughed at, and one isn't, regardless of skepticism being warranted. I mean...if someone makes up a story about you having blown Donald Trump, and one about you having gotten a speeding ticket...which will be met with less skepticism?

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

For Saturday. 

1-3/2-4? 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I remember reading about the Jan thaw getting muted too and it ended up +10 over a 10 day stretch. But sure, the cold has won out in the extended more often than not for the first 2/3 of winter.

But I don’t think many have been predicting toucans and stunned iguanas. It’s more just a relaxation of the pattern with more snow/ptype threats and more fair weather days above freezing given the latitude gain of the temp gradient. 

I'm wondering if my memory is divorced from reality a bit on that... I was mentioning earlier in a post that I thought that Jan warm up turned out not very convincing - if it was +10, it was very convincing.   

I'm wondering also if it was a +3 in NYC and +13 up by PF type of deal, too?     anyway, the reason my memory is the way it is is because I remember a lot of mornings we refroze the 3.5" pack that was incredibly resistant to melt that whole period. I think the last couple of days ( seriously ...I remember taking note of this) it finally succumb and disappeared.    The having snow on the ground much of the way is why I thought it as not so convincing.   

[tavwtby]

I was mistaken earlier about the run of days below freezing, on 1/22 I hit 42... however avg for January is 30.1°, and ytd is 29.9°, all days, including the warm in Jan, never got above 44°, and 1/25 almost got out of the single digits while dumping snow, pretty impressive temp run here... I honestly don't know what the average monthly temperature is here, i never finished that, but I'd bet it's maybe top 10 coldest January here anyway... looks to continue for another week at least, hopefully ending with a big dog and then I'm about ready for warm, this weather is killing my vehicles.

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm wondering if my memory is divorced from reality a bit on that... I was mentioning earlier in a post that I thought that Jan warm up turned out not very convincing - if it was +10, it was very convincing.   

I'm wondering also if it was a +3 in NYC and +13 up by PF type of deal, too?     anyway, the reason my memory is the way it is is because I remember a lot of mornings we refroze the 3.5" pack that was incredibly resistant to melt that whole period. I think the last couple of days ( seriously ...I remember taking note of this) it finally succumb and disappeared.    The having snow on the ground much of the way is why I thought it as not so convincing.   

IIRC there were a few unbelievable OP runs showing a day or two supporting 70° and then the models obviously backed off from that. But then there was the windshield wiper effect where some didn’t think we were going above the 30s and it ended up being a week well into the 40s. 

[wx2fish]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm wondering if my memory is divorced from reality a bit on that... I was mentioning earlier in a post that I thought that Jan warm up turned out not very convincing - if it was +10, it was very convincing.   

I'm wondering also if it was a +3 in NYC and +13 up by PF type of deal, too?     anyway, the reason my memory is the way it is is because I remember a lot of mornings we refroze the 3.5" pack that was incredibly resistant to melt that whole period. I think the last couple of days ( seriously ...I remember taking note of this) it finally succumb and disappeared.    The having snow on the ground much of the way is why I thought it as not so convincing.   

There ended up a few days of +10 between the 8th and 15th, just nothing high end. We wedged through anything substantial. 

There was a stretch in late dec when the weeklies flopped warmer and there were alot of cancel winter calls. I Remember scott coming back from the tropics ready to drive into the harbor. 

[DavisStraight]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, in the grand scheme of things, as much as you may not like it...a moderation to somewhat above average climo temps is a much more higher probability, and less anomalous outcome than a blizzard...which is why one is laughed at, and one isn't, regardless of skepticism being warranted. I mean...if someone makes up a story about you having blown Donald Trump, and one about you having gotten a speeding ticket...which will be met with less skepticism?

Depends on who we're talking about.

[Damage In Tolland]

33 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

There ended up a few days of +10 between the 8th and 15th, just nothing high end. We wedged through anything substantial. 

There was a stretch in late dec when the weeklies flopped warmer and there were alot of cancel winter calls. I Remember scott coming back from the tropics ready to drive into the harbor. 

Isn’t that pretty much every single morning from when he logs on at 6 until 9 when Ray logs on?

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Isn’t that pretty much every single morning from when he logs on at 6 until 9 when Ray logs on?

When?

[ORH_wxman]

Looking at January departures at ORH, the warmest 10 day stretch was Jan 6-15. That averaged +8.9. 
 

Coldest 10 day stretch was Jan 22-31 which averaged -12.3…that stretch actually started with a +8.4 too on Jan 22, but then the next 9 blew that away. 
 

The rest of the days not listed on those two 10-day stretches were slightly BN in the aggregate so you get a total of a -3 month. 

December was more impressive on cold departures but January is minimum climo so getting those stretches in January feels a lot colder. December was nearly wire to wire BN cold…only the cutter on 12/18-19 and a couple other random mildish days interrupted the cold departures that month. 

[kdxken]

37 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Depends on who we're talking about.

Exactly. If he was talking Ditty one would have to give it some serious thought.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

When?

Generally the first few hours you log on are some sort of complaining and being upset about the pattern.  Not always , but more often than not. And then Ray logs on when he gets to work and starts talking about  his winter forecast and that takes your mind off of things