Is we back? February discussion thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

Clearly, CoastalWx would just LOVE for the vortex to phase in.....

[WinterWolf]

31 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

CoastalWx will be so happy if the GFS holds it and it snows where CoastalWx lives

If it didn’t show it, he’d be moaning and whining about that too…he’s the new TBlizz.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I continue to think that my nearly decade long streak of subpar seasons is about to end, just a matter of whether it's done incrementally, or in grand fashion.

[jm1220]

I plan to be in Boston from 2/13-16 so it’ll be a guaranteed miss or slop. You’re welcome! 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Nice steady snow falling right now at Magic Mtn

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll probably give this a shoutout tomorrow if it still looks hopeful.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Does the pattern usually persist in Feb-March?

Top 20 analogs

Following Feb 500mb

Following Feb Air Temp

Following March Air Temp

The pattern seems to take a break to +TNH in Feb, then returns in March. It's interesting that models have this N. Pacific High pressure building, although they are south of the normal +TNH position right now. 

Interestingly, the same Dec-Jan pattern actually holds somewhat through the whole following April - August

Jives with my thinking that there will be no spring anytime soon.

[WinterWolf]

So I thought it was the 10/11th and then 13th/14th? Or is that the Euro showing that? And GFS is the other dates? Obviously clown range, and the dates are fluid I’d imagine. 

[SJonesWX]

10 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The reason why I go off on ACATT stuff both here and from online is how they either just assume ACATT no matter what and don’t look at anything, or they completely misinterpret things like PV disruption. Look at what’s happened now with the split. And btw the weeklies failed too so let’s not hump them just because they are cold and snowy. So many clowns out there.

you must be new here, welcome to the forum!

[CoastalWx]

Ideally we squeeze in a clipper and a SWFE or coastal before the 15th. Then we’ll warm up and see what happens later. Some signs it tries to reshuffle a bit. 

 

If we can squeeze in something and limit the bleeding, that would be a better outcome than how it looked several days ago. It’s still kind of tenuous though and may not break our way.

[kdxken]

This blows. 

 

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, kdxken said:

This blows. 

 

Thanks for this trustworthy info Q-Shmegma. BAM has the most accurate info out there ( said no one ). 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

This blows. 

 

Still seems like core is too our west, but it still will be frigid.

[SnoSki14]

It's the wind that will really deliver the cold even if lows won't be anything record breaking.  Low maxes too

[CoastalWx]

6z euro AI EPS seems to like the clipper/redeveloped on the 12th. That might be something to watch.

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Thanks for this trustworthy info Q-Shmegma. BAM has the most accurate info out there ( said no one ). 

I actually think he's pretty good.

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still seems like core is too our west, but it still will be frigid.

 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

Of course he posts the koochie. Jesus.

[weatherwiz]

Wagons in on that 13-15 period. Time to throw in the chips and hope for another biggie 

[dendrite]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still seems like core is too our west, but it still will be frigid.

No one is breaking record low maxes on Saturday because of early midnight temps. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

No one is breaking record low maxes on Saturday because of early midnight temps. 

Yep

[wx2fish]

 

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

No one is breaking record low maxes on Saturday because of early midnight temps. 

Then bounces us into the 20s in alot of NE because the front is so slow. Sunday is a different story, but Sat trended pretty pedestrian until the front arrives

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Wagons in on that 13-15 period. Time to throw in the chips and hope for another biggie 

I'm getting there....proceeding with caution.

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Just hold it for 11 days, we can do this!

I can do 11 days standing on my head.  

[Damage In Tolland]

Flurries flying around . Nice to see snow again 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm getting there....proceeding with caution.

For sure. 

[cleetussnow]

34 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

Put it in the reservoirs and we’ll drink it and grow crops.  Novel idea, eh ol’ chap? 

[WinterWolf]

36 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I actually think he's pretty good.

Who was it yesterday you posted that said it’s gonna be warm…was it them?  

[WinterWolf]

53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ideally we squeeze in a clipper and a SWFE or coastal before the 15th. Then we’ll warm up and see what happens later. Some signs it tries to reshuffle a bit. 

 

If we can squeeze in something and limit the bleeding, that would be a better outcome than how it looked several days ago. It’s still kind of tenuous though and may not break our way.

Agreed. 

[Ginx snewx]

Depth down to 12. Time to refresh