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Is we back? February discussion thread

mahk_webstah

By mahk_webstah,
in New England

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SnowGoose69
SnowGoose69

Most developing El Nino summers are cool in the East.  I'd expect if we see the expected transition to at least a weak-moderate El Nino this summer would be below normal

dendrite
dendrite

The path to my chicken run has been melting but it receives direct and reflected solar radiation together. 

cleetussnow
cleetussnow

The posters aren’t melting in this case, they are sublimating.  There is an important difference.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This has been an objectively good winter so far. Need to keep it going. 

Agree. Zero complaints here. Second half about to begin…let’s finish strong.  40” on Feb 1st for season to date…that’s not a bad place to be…when your yearly average is 50”. 

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wx2fish

wx2fish

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Now for my favorite game of “what if we used 1961-1990 normals” :greta:

Station | Jan ‘26 temps | 1991-2020 norms | 1961-1990 norms
CON | 20.3° | -2.0° | +1.7°
PWM | 21.2° | -2.8° | +0.4°
BOS | 28.0° | -1.9° | -0.6°
ORH | 21.8° | -2.9° | -1.0°
PVD | 27.4° | -2.8° | -0.5°
BDL | 24.0° | -3.1° | -0.6°
BDR | 28.7° | -2.7° | -0.2°

Yeah that stretch I alluded to muted the monthlys. The combo with Dec has been solid overall though 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know ..philosophically, all luck is, is just not knowing why things occurred.  

If we look at a system, and assume all inputs into that system, then ... "air apparent" ( puns always on purpose to annoy - ) something unexpected occurs, we tend to call that luck - something unpredictable must have been introduced that was not a part of those inputs.    

SO, it begs the question ... if one was able to predict, thus reduce the unpredictable quotient to zero, does that remove luck?      It seems the answer to this question is rather academic - there is no luck. There is just knowing, or not knowing.  So the term luck is really just a semantic dance around the notion that we are limited in our outlooks - limited by the fact that we are not clever enough to predict all inputs into the system.   

This is why I wonder if Quantum Mechanics, which deals ultimately in probabilities of location in time and space, ... in fact, all probabilities, is just really a limitation of human perception - 

  

Well, you, nor anyone else, has reduced it to zero...so there is luck as far as we know...I think we are aways off from getting there.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Agree. Zero complaints here. Second half about to begin…let’s finish strong.  40” on Feb 1st for season to date…that’s not a bad place to be…when your yearly average is 50”. 

Depends what happens from here on out in terms or snow...I'm still about 2' shy of average snowfall, so plenty left to be desired from my perspective if the balance of the season dissapoints in that respect.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Depends what happens from here on out in terms or snow...I'm still about 2' shy of average snowfall, so plenty left to be desired from my perspective if the balance of the season dissapoints in that respect.

Ya, Don and I have done well in central CT..so we’re in a good spot.  You average more than we do, so it’s a less of a good spot for you at this moment. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

So even less at 384 lol. Thanks for proving my point 

That output is worse there for you agreed. But its better back this way. If that happens like that shows the next 2weeks…I’ll have just about hit my yearly average snowfall.  
 

But the odds of that playing out like that are low obviously. That too will change for better or worse. So it’s all relative. 

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Agree. Zero complaints here. Second half about to begin…let’s finish strong.  40” on Feb 1st for season to date…that’s not a bad place to be…when your yearly average is 50”. 

 

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Depends what happens from here on out in terms or snow...I'm still about 2' shy of average snowfall, so plenty left to be desired from my perspective if the balance of the season dissapoints in that respect.

Yes. We’re only part of the way there. I’m pleased that we’re not talking about numerous blown opportunities, a blowtorch, or ratter in sight on Feb 1. God knows the last decade has had plenty of that.

But it’s 100% true that we still have a long way to go. Climo is still in the distance for many. 

Still thinking Feb is cold and near climo with snow and a possible SSW gives us a clear path to a cold and potentially snowy first 2/3 of March. No early spring this year. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Yes. We’re only part of the way there. I’m pleased that we’re not talking about numerous blown opportunities, a blowtorch, or ratter in sight on Feb 1. God knows the last decade has had plenty of that.

But it’s 100% true that we still have a long way to go. Climo is still in the distance for many. 

Still thinking Feb is cold and near climo with snow and a possible SSW gives us a clear path to a cold and potentially snowy first 2/3 of March. No early spring this year. 

The early spring idea was a common thought back in late October, and November.  But that has since looked to go by the wayside. Which is good to see. Let’s all do well this upcoming second half. 

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like we buckle up for a cutter on the gfs and euro. 

And again... These models will change dramatically. As we saw with previous storm potentials... We can get a dramatic change within a 3-5 day range. We've been lucky there hasn't been a cutter in a while .. maybe we need that to give this pattern a boost. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Thats a brutal airmass next weekend on the gfs. 20s in CAR while its 0F, blowing 40mph in SNE. 

1045 mb high against a 975 mb low is a bit stronger in CAA gusts than 40 mph.. .. heh.   Just sayin'    

that's a damaging CAA event there.   Probably b.s. tho 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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27 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

And again... These models will change dramatically. As we saw with previous storm potentials... We can get a dramatic change within a 3-5 day range. We've been lucky there hasn't been a cutter in a while .. maybe we need that to give this pattern a boost. 

Ridge flex as cold breaks down. Definitely possible. 

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