Is we back? February discussion thread

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Might get a 1-2” refresher here tomorrow. Gonna need it for sun angle season now.

Plus, even if the snow looks fresh and white, there are always dirt and dust particles settling on it, reducing its reflective ability, allowing for more melting!  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro drops a couple inches in SNE Friday night/ Sat

Bombs clipper late but would still drop some snow 

Oh how we pray.  Something, anything! 

[dendrite]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Oh how we pray.  Something, anything! 

[Ginx snewx]

Put the nylon socks filled with nacl on the ice jams.

38 snow on the season 10 AN

 

[klw]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have trouble giving snow up . It’s a problem 

You can watch my alma mater's webcam as they head towards 10" today:

 

Go wildcats!

[MJO812]

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What’s the significance of that chart?  SSW Event? 

[ORH_wxman]

28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What’s the significance of that chart?  SSW Event? 

Yeah there is actually a strat vortex split that occurs in early February in pretty much all guidance. 

[MJO812]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah there is actually a strat vortex split that occurs in early February in pretty much all guidance. 

Yep going to be a cold month. Now can we get snow with it. 

[Kitz Craver]

Zzzzzzzzzzz

[Bryan63]

Bought a snowblower, apologies in advance if the rest of the season is a snooze.

[dendrite]

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep going to be a cold month. Now can we get snow with it. 

Let’s bury the southeast some more

[Henry's Weather]

51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah there is actually a strat vortex split that occurs in early February in pretty much all guidance. 

How long does it take to affect the troposphere?

[Kitz Craver]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Let’s bury the southeast some more

Probably 

[Damage In Tolland]

Nice clipper Fri nite/,Saturday 

[JACKASS]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nice clipper Fri nite/,Saturday 

Inch?

[Kitz Craver]

I hope we do score something as it looks we a continue our BN streak for the extended 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

Inch?

Couple from this juncture . EPS has it too 

[ORH_wxman]

28 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

How long does it take to affect the troposphere?

If it’s top-down (they usually are but not always), a February disruption usually takes about 3-4 weeks to affect the troposphere.
 

If it’s bottom-up, then the troposphere is actually affected first. 

[Diggiebot]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Couple from this juncture . EPS has it too 

Sounds like a repeat of this weekends storm. Pass 

[78Blizzard]

We cold and dry...

The only good to come out of this is that SST's are the lowest in 12 years, so any marginal storms in March may work in our favor.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If it’s top-down (they usually are but not always), a February disruption usually takes about 3-4 weeks to affect the troposphere.
 

If it’s bottom-up, then the troposphere is actually affected first. 

Yeah it's a matter of when in either case.

The trouble with February downward breaks is that by the time it matters, the sun/seasonality is attempting to make it matter less.  I guess cross that bridge... 

In this case, the exertion of a -AO has been in place prior to any notable temperature intrusion, so this suggests it is bottom up.  This also hearkens back to an argument I've made in the past, that if you are in a season plagued by a preponderance of the -AO state, the advent of a SSW means less because it's eventual modulation is absorbed into the preexisting state.   But that's a deeper aspect.   

.... it's going to be difficult separating causalities if the AO continues to be so weighted.   

So I believe the AO is separate phenomenon endemic to this season ... record breaking domain temperatures associated with this up there.  It's offloaded so much mass that it is actually driving the NH totals down, while leaving the arctic elevated.  Mind you, an elevated state that can still store meat indefinitely ... but it's an upside down hemisphere prior to any SSW even being involved.    

  

 

So I've looked at it and to me, there's more suggestion that this is bottom-->up   

 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

We cold and dry...

The only good to come out of this is that SST's are the lowest in 12 years, so any marginal storms in March may work in our favor.

 

You’ll get several inches at least Saturday 

[78Blizzard]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’ll get several inches at least Saturday 

 

On 1/27/2026 at 5:55 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Heaviest will be East of River but west will get plenty 

Hopefully this 7-day forecast will work out better than your 5-day prediction for this latest miss.

[Ginx snewx]

Bet those in NC wish fast flow was a thing 

4 hours ago, klw said:

You can watch my alma mater's webcam as they head towards 10" today:

 

Go wildcats!

Fast CC flow?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

If it’s top-down (they usually are but not always), a February disruption usually takes about 3-4 weeks to affect the troposphere.
 

If it’s bottom-up, then the troposphere is actually affected first. 

I don't think the lag will apply since we have antecedent blocking in this case. It's just going to protract it.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Could the 144 hour GFS and Euro be any more diametrically different?

[Diggiebot]

15 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Could the 144 hour GFS and Euro be any more diametrically different?

Story of the winter. Next run they will switch spots. Try forecasting that! 

[MJO812]

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yeah but what are the precip forecasts because its been bone dry outside of that big storm.