nw baltimore wx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Yea, this might be kind of funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 9 hours ago, Cobalt said: Before Euro shatters our dreams.. DT 1st call map. Was made before 0z suite (which makes me assume he wasn't weighing the GFS then because it had its worst run at 18z) I don't think any model even shows this!! Maybe he's using the Cras model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: is it really or is that poppycock? It is look better this run, not sure if it would be enough to matter for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Wouldn't it be funny and ironic if after Randy unpins this thread, then all of a sudden the storm pulls west on models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Persons of power, if the storm comes back please don’t pin. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 19 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said: Persons of power, if the storm comes back please don’t pin. Hmm, looks like @stormtracker has picked up a new (or maybe just unknown to the masses) name, persons of power!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 33 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said: Persons of power, if the storm comes back please don’t pin. It’s not coming back. No worries. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I mean. Ocean City is getting close to fringed at this point. What a clownshow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsq Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 966mb low 200 nmi SE off the coast of cape cod at the end of the run! i'd wish sailors enjoyment but that certainly would not be fun to get stuck in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 ICON with a nice bump NW, coastal areas back in play. Maybe we can back into some light snow at least? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 14 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: ICON with a nice bump NW, coastal areas back in play. Maybe we can back into some light snow at least? SREF tossing a bone lol 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Thanks, Mount Holly! 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 10 hours ago, Cobalt said: Before Euro shatters our dreams.. DT 1st call map. Was made before 0z suite (which makes me assume he wasn't weighing the GFS then because it had its worst run at 18z) Hugging the nbm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 23 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: ICON with a nice bump NW, coastal areas back in play. Maybe we can back into some light snow at least? F it, I'll hang on to track a slight chance of a tiny pack refresher. I feel emotionally strong enough at this time. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 A 40% chance of 4 inches of snow in DC? What model are they looking at? The DT one? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 The GFS has been amazing on this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: SREF tossing a bone lol That’s actually a pretty big jump NW, but I guess this model is even less useful than the GFS. But you’d think there are some big hits in there to get the mean near 5 inches in dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Icon bumped north from Roanoke to Lexington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 13 minutes ago, Amped said: Hugging the nbm This is exhibit A for the problem with using mean values from a large ensemble. There are a handful of GEFS and ECMWFE members with huge snowfall totals, so the mean value ends up as a couple of inches. But the 50th percentile map shows 0 for our area, and the chance of 1" of snow at KDCA is under 30%. 4 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 SREF has between 0 and 39.56" for DCA. The mean is 11.97' and the median is 2.97". Instead of using either of those, let's go with the average of the max and min: 19.78" of snow for DCA. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, paulythegun said: SREF has between 0 and 39.56" for DCA. The mean is 11.97' and the median is 2.97". Instead of using either of those, let's go with the average of the max and min: 19.78" of snow for DCA. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! The SREF was created to deal with the failure of January 2000. Therefore, the SREF is right. The End. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: SREF tossing a bone lol OUTRAGEOUS. 10 to 1 snow ratios vastly undersell those totals. I demand a correction!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 9 minutes ago, high risk said: This is exhibit A for the problem with using mean values from a large ensemble. There are a handful of GEFS and ECMWFE members with huge snowfall totals, so the mean value ends up as a couple of inches. But the 50th percentile map shows 0 for our area, and the chance of 1" of snow at KDCA is under 30%. So using the mean is misleading due to outliers. Using the medium is more reliable. What about using the mode? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 cmc also bumped nw almost gives dc qpf, not giving up hope on a pack refresher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 12 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: That’s actually a pretty big jump NW, but I guess this model is even less useful than the GFS. But you’d think there are some big hits in there to get the mean near 5 inches in dc. Over the last 10-15 years of sref observation, the only thing the SREF has been useful for is giving unrealistic hope when there is little. I'm feeling pessimistic down here. Blacksburg is calling for 4-8" and I'm feeling under 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: cmc also bumped nw almost gives dc qpf, not giving up hope on a pack refresher. That's all I'm asking for. 2" - 4". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 GFS is waaaaay east. Thing practically makes a B line for bermuda once it forms. LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, RevWarReenactor said: GFS is waaaaay east. Thing practically makes a B line for bermuda once it forms. LOL If the GFS ran at 2AM and not 10:30, no one would gaf about it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 6 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: cmc also bumped nw almost gives dc qpf, not giving up hope on a pack refresher. Like I said, I'd be happy with 2. Or just 1. I just like watching it fall. The cold temps keeping it around for a few days is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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