The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

NAM digging that vort a bit more west lolololol, couldn’t help myself

is it really or is that poppycock?  

[nw baltimore wx]

Yea, this might be kind of funny.

[winter_warlock]

9 hours ago, Cobalt said:

Before Euro shatters our dreams.. DT 1st call map. Was made before 0z suite (which makes me assume he wasn't weighing the GFS then because it had its worst run at 18z)

 I don't think any model even shows this!!   Maybe he's using the Cras model 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

is it really or is that poppycock?  

It is look better this run, not sure if it would be enough to matter for us. 

[winter_warlock]

Wouldn't it be funny and ironic if after Randy unpins this thread, then all of a sudden the storm pulls west on models 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

[Benjamn3]

Persons of power, if the storm comes back please don’t pin. 

[wxdude64]

19 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

Persons of power, if the storm comes back please don’t pin. 

Hmm, looks like @stormtracker has picked up a new (or maybe just unknown to the masses) name, persons of power!!

[stormtracker]

33 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

Persons of power, if the storm comes back please don’t pin. 

It’s not coming back.  No worries. 

[clskinsfan]

I mean. Ocean City is getting close to fringed at this point. What a clownshow. 

[hsq]

966mb low 200 nmi SE off the coast of cape cod at the end of the run! i'd wish sailors enjoyment but that certainly would not be fun to get stuck in

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

ICON with a nice bump NW, coastal areas back in play.  Maybe we can back into some light snow at least?

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

ICON with a nice bump NW, coastal areas back in play.  Maybe we can back into some light snow at least?

SREF tossing a bone lol

[bncho]

Thanks, Mount Holly!

[Amped]

10 hours ago, Cobalt said:

Before Euro shatters our dreams.. DT 1st call map. Was made before 0z suite (which makes me assume he wasn't weighing the GFS then because it had its worst run at 18z)

Hugging the nbm 

 

[Kay]

23 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

ICON with a nice bump NW, coastal areas back in play.  Maybe we can back into some light snow at least?

F it, I'll hang on to track a slight chance of a tiny pack refresher. I feel emotionally strong enough at this time. 

[RevWarReenactor]

A 40% chance of 4 inches of snow in DC? What model are they looking at? The DT one?

[rjvanals]

The GFS has been amazing on this storm 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

SREF tossing a bone lol

That’s actually a pretty big jump NW, but I guess this model is even less useful than the GFS.  But you’d think there are some big hits in there to get the mean near 5 inches in dc. 

[stormy]

Icon bumped north from Roanoke to Lexington

[high risk]

13 minutes ago, Amped said:

Hugging the nbm 

 

          This is exhibit A for the problem with using mean values from a large ensemble.    There are a handful of GEFS and ECMWFE members with huge snowfall totals, so the mean value ends up as a couple of inches.   But the 50th percentile map shows 0 for our area, and the chance of 1" of snow at KDCA is under 30%.

[paulythegun]

SREF has between 0 and 39.56" for DCA. The mean is 11.97' and the median is 2.97". Instead of using either of those, let's go with the average of the max and min: 19.78" of snow for DCA. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!

[paulythegun]

1 minute ago, paulythegun said:

SREF has between 0 and 39.56" for DCA. The mean is 11.97' and the median is 2.97". Instead of using either of those, let's go with the average of the max and min: 19.78" of snow for DCA. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!

The SREF was created to deal with the failure of January 2000. Therefore, the SREF is right. The End.

[paulythegun]

25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

SREF tossing a bone lol

OUTRAGEOUS. 10 to 1 snow ratios vastly undersell those totals. I demand a correction!!!

[grhqofb5]

9 minutes ago, high risk said:

          This is exhibit A for the problem with using mean values from a large ensemble.    There are a handful of GEFS and ECMWFE members with huge snowfall totals, so the mean value ends up as a couple of inches.   But the 50th percentile map shows 0 for our area, and the chance of 1" of snow at KDCA is under 30%.

So using the mean is misleading due to outliers. Using the medium is more reliable.  What about using the mode?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

cmc also bumped nw almost gives dc qpf, not giving up hope on a pack refresher. 

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

That’s actually a pretty big jump NW, but I guess this model is even less useful than the GFS.  But you’d think there are some big hits in there to get the mean near 5 inches in dc. 

Over the last 10-15 years of sref observation, the only thing the SREF has been useful for is giving unrealistic hope when there is little. I'm feeling pessimistic down here. Blacksburg is calling for 4-8" and I'm feeling under 3