The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[GreyHat]

18 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

EPS MLSP, 12z left, 18z right.  deeper and Tuck "tucky" McTuckerson. sorry for potato quality but im lazy

 

The 18z is also stronger, if that helps.

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Guys/gals. There is a Banter thread.

 

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. Apparently we are in it. 

lol

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z runs are starting; did the EURO tease us or do we have the start of a positive trend?

[bncho]

FWIW all the slow bleeding from the euro AI over the past 4-5 runs was reversed by this HH run

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, benjammin said:

When one snowmobile loves another snowmobile and they commit to each other...

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
 

When one snowmobile has way too much to drink and…

[Solution Man]

31 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Not sure why they didn't use my pic on the bus

Don’t worry I got something for later. He the man though!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z runs are starting; did the EURO tease us or do we have the start of a positive trend?

If the models bring this back for us, even a 2-4 inch deal…would be awesome.  It’s downright arctic out here we have bodies of water freezing, massive piles of snow and sleet everywhere.  You have an absolute bullet proof glacier of snowpack.  Adding even a touch of powder on that would be fantastic. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Guys its almost time!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

23 minutes ago, mappy said:

And makes you look like you could be 5’9 

Nahhh, too much sleet.  More like 5'6"!! 

[Nomz]

Are we back?

[mitchnick]

It's overdone, but it's the Srefs. What do you expect? 

[Solution Man]

6 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Are we back?

Yes, ride the wave grasshopper 

[psuhoffman]

@MN Transplant

you very well might be right about perception bias. However I’m not sure…I’m not talking about SWFE frontal waves. They most definitely do trend north. And we’ve benefitted from plenty of them including this last one. Yea it flipped to sleet but 6 days out most guidance was missing is completely and giving NC some huge snowstorm. 
 

However it’s been since 2000 that guidance showed a cutoff upper low to our south tha trended north significantly.  I can think of a few examples where we were on the fringes and it eeked north just enough but I can’t think of a single example like this where it was cutoff down near Atlanta with a snow shown for NC 4-7 days out and it ended up hitting us. Now I know there haven’t been THAT many chances because that’s a pretty rare thing but there have been some. 
 

Meanwhile I can think of more than a handful of cutoff h5 lows projected perfectly for us at day 4-7 that ended up trending north and screwing is over to some extent. Now I know there were more opportunities but I can only think of a couple that were projected good at day 4-5 and stayed that way. March 2018 being one.  So it seems going through the examples in my head the ones targeting us day 4-7 had a higher rate of trending north than ones targeting NC. It’s not that hard to go through all the examples of ones that stayed good in my head because frankly we’ve not had that many snowstorms lol.  And most of the ones we did were SWFE open waves not cut off lows. 
 

It did seem NYC has had a lot more luck with storms that were supposed to jack us at day 4-5 than we’ve had with storms that were supposed to jack Raleigh to Richmond day 4-5. 
 

ETA: only examples I can think of where a cut off was projected good 100 hours out and ended up good the last 20 years was Feb 2010, Jan 2011, Jan 2016, March 2018 

Out other big cutoff low snows didn’t lock in until too close to evaluate and didn’t trend north they were just waves that weren’t supposed to amplify until we got inside 100 hours. 
 

I can think of way more examples than 4 of upper lows that looked good 100 hours out and trended north. Hell one was 2 weeks ago. And it trended so far north the snow missed my friend in Vermont to the north!  
 

Meanwhile there have been about a dozen examples of a cutoff to our south in that time period and I can’t think of a single one that trended significantly north like that to help us. Actually more often they end up trended even more south and east and the storm even misses NC and ends up some weak wave way OTS 

[Mikeymac5306]

6 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Are we back?

We're back, but we are puzzled. 

[ravensrule]

37 minutes ago, mappy said:

And makes you look like you could be 5’9 

Lying down he definitely is. 

[psuhoffman]

So maybe my point is were are DUE! 

[SnowenOutThere]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So maybe my point is were are DUE! 

HRRR went west!

[TSSN+]

17 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

HRRR went west!

Man it must have been over Africa last run,  cause at hour 48 looks like it’s heading for Bermuda. 

[snowmagnet]

HRRR also showed snow over my house today. 

[bncho]

18z WeatherNEXT sucks

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Army Mike said:

Are we just saying “F it” it’s west? Cause in that case nam is way north and west


.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Haven’t seen it

[Army Mike]

It’s a joke since someone said hrrr is west.. I can delete


.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Army Mike said:

It’s a joke since someone said hrrr is west.. I can delete


.

Yeah the sarcasm was undetectable there...man you had me looking, too lol

[Solution Man]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah the sarcasm was undetectable there...man you had me looking, too lol

Yeah not good

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Army Mike said:

It’s a joke since someone said hrrr is west.. I can delete


.

You crazy for doing throwing crumbs to starving people

[jayyy]

At least it’s not hitting NE of us

[LP08]

7 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Yeah not good

Was really hoping for some wild ass mid 2010’s NAM run too

[SnowenOutThere]

27 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Man it must have been over Africa last run,  cause at hour 48 looks like it’s heading for Bermuda. 

Listen its 18z run was hall of fame dogshit. Comparatively 0z is just a far eastern outlier! 

[Nomz]

Is it crazy to say I think the Euro is coming in too south, assuming its first 50 or so hours are correct? Because I don't see this extreme of a double barrel low developing