The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[jayyy]

Even if we were to try and extrapolate past 84 you don't think that could climb the coast? Low looks tucked in a good bit at the end of it's run. Maybe i'm pulling at straws.

I don’t think it would have gotten it done. Better than 6z but not there. As Randy said, h5 didn’t look quite right.

[MN Transplant]

Even though it is a whiff, you have to admire a 500 low track of Minneapolis to St Louis to Atlanta on the RDPS.  That's a unique one.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

Even though it is a whiff, you have to admire a 500 low track of Minneapolis to St Louis to Atlanta on the RDPS.  That's a unique one.

Is that even possible with were it closed off? Seems weird to me. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Even though it is a whiff, you have to admire a 500 low track of Minneapolis to St Louis to Atlanta on the RDPS.  That's a unique one.

Helluva block

[baltosquid]

Overall the ICON-EPS moves east and looks suppressed, although there are some definite tucks in there too. Hopefully the GFS up next doesn’t nod to the Germans.

[87storms]

46 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Here is my pro forecaster analysis of what I want the NAM to look like instead of what it looked like. Move that trough west 100 miles, and tilt it neg.

Biggest issue I see is the lack of a return flow out of the gulf ahead of this system. Not really sure a north trend of the ull will accomplish much aside from being a clean clipper unless we get some kind of a norlun trough involved. The best runs were mostly throwing moisture back from the Atlantic…which would be awesome but basically requires bombogenesis.
 

[Paleocene]

GOOFUS time

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

GOOFUS time

[frd]

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Based on all these posts about the kicker kicking the ULL out to sea, I think there's a bit of a misunderstanding of what a "kicker" really is and what role it plays. 

Some extra vorticity behind the main low doesn't really act to "kick" it east. The main issue is wave spacing.

If spaced far enough apart, there's little or no effect... the ULL is on its own and may or may not close/neg tilt depending on the overall trough/ridge orientation and/or any upstream blocking if any.

If spaced close enough though, they begin to phase and pull the ULL north, as has happened on 1/25/00.

But if they are closely spaced but not close enough to phase, i.e. poor wave spacing, the flow becomes flattened in between, making it harder for the ULL to deepen.

I think we've went over this before. It's not so much of a "kicker" but wave spacing.

We have failed many times in the past with wave spacing issues. I believe more so in a complicated Nina Northern stream dominated pattern. 

Thanks for the detailed explanation. 

 

[deer]

4 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

GOOFUS time

[IUsedToHateCold]

Seems like a poor choice to berate the model which bestows hope upon you. It too can send the storm to the fish whom are hungry for it. Let us be kind to our model friends

...

Keep the hope alive GFS. 

[bncho]

Imagine what life would be like without the GFS

[DDweatherman]

Just now, bncho said:

Imagine what life would be like without the GFS

A lot easier and less misleading. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, bncho said:

Imagine what life would be like without the GFS

More productive? 

[LeesburgWx]

Not really much change through 36 hr

[WeatherGeek2025]

Last 5 runs of the Euro. Oldest top, new 06z bottom. to me screams trend is back and i'm back on the train. I think we go back to at least a 6-12 inches

[87storms]

10 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Overall the ICON-EPS moves east and looks suppressed, although there are some definite tucks in there too. Hopefully the GFS up next doesn’t nod to the Germans.

We might need a 950 low to get moisture back to Frederick with so much dry air in place: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=Td2m&runtime=2026012806&fh=99

 

[Nomz]

If I squint its a tick west, lol

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Not really much change through 36 hr

Some ass hair ticks at 54..lobe is just slightly west, but meh so far

[Cobalt]

AI GFS looks a tick Northwest? At least at h500 and with that initial slug of precip.

[Terpeast]

25 minutes ago, bncho said:

Which is the more plausible option in your opinion? Trending the "kicker" wave far enough apart or trending the "kicker" wave close enough to phase?

Pacific flow is too fast to back the kicker vort off, so might as well bring it closer and phase to bring that sucker up north.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

AI GFS looks a tick Northwest? At least at h500 and with that initial slug of precip.

yea def a tick east

[jgentworth]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Some ass hair ticks at 54..lobe is just slightly west, but meh so far

Does the low being closed off over lake michigan on 12z at 60 as opposed to being more oblong and extended in the 06z make a difference or are those just lines and shapes at this point

[Nomz]

Now its an asshair east but more mature who knows

[clskinsfan]

GFS is closing off at 500 early as well. Not sure what that means though. 

[wxmeddler]

I remember when I first started tracking these things 84hrs was just getting into "what the **** are we dealing with range" not "ass hair ticks" range. Oh how times have changed, and yet I'd love to still be surprised Jan '00 style.

[Ji]

Just now, Nomz said:

Now its an asshair east but more mature who knows

its east but more north at that time frame lol...maybe it wont dig so far south?

[stormtracker]

Its about to same.  Hair flatter in front

[Ji]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

GFS is closing off at 500 early as well. Not sure what that means though. 

it means were screwed either way somehow

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

it means were screwed either way somehow

Yes.  If anything, the sfc map is east of 6z