jayyy Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Even if we were to try and extrapolate past 84 you don't think that could climb the coast? Low looks tucked in a good bit at the end of it's run. Maybe i'm pulling at straws.I don’t think it would have gotten it done. Better than 6z but not there. As Randy said, h5 didn’t look quite right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Even though it is a whiff, you have to admire a 500 low track of Minneapolis to St Louis to Atlanta on the RDPS. That's a unique one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Even though it is a whiff, you have to admire a 500 low track of Minneapolis to St Louis to Atlanta on the RDPS. That's a unique one. Is that even possible with were it closed off? Seems weird to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Even though it is a whiff, you have to admire a 500 low track of Minneapolis to St Louis to Atlanta on the RDPS. That's a unique one. Helluva block 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Overall the ICON-EPS moves east and looks suppressed, although there are some definite tucks in there too. Hopefully the GFS up next doesn’t nod to the Germans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 46 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Here is my pro forecaster analysis of what I want the NAM to look like instead of what it looked like. Move that trough west 100 miles, and tilt it neg. Biggest issue I see is the lack of a return flow out of the gulf ahead of this system. Not really sure a north trend of the ull will accomplish much aside from being a clean clipper unless we get some kind of a norlun trough involved. The best runs were mostly throwing moisture back from the Atlantic…which would be awesome but basically requires bombogenesis. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 GOOFUS time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: GOOFUS time 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 15 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Based on all these posts about the kicker kicking the ULL out to sea, I think there's a bit of a misunderstanding of what a "kicker" really is and what role it plays. Some extra vorticity behind the main low doesn't really act to "kick" it east. The main issue is wave spacing. If spaced far enough apart, there's little or no effect... the ULL is on its own and may or may not close/neg tilt depending on the overall trough/ridge orientation and/or any upstream blocking if any. If spaced close enough though, they begin to phase and pull the ULL north, as has happened on 1/25/00. But if they are closely spaced but not close enough to phase, i.e. poor wave spacing, the flow becomes flattened in between, making it harder for the ULL to deepen. I think we've went over this before. It's not so much of a "kicker" but wave spacing. We have failed many times in the past with wave spacing issues. I believe more so in a complicated Nina Northern stream dominated pattern. Thanks for the detailed explanation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, Paleocene said: GOOFUS time 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Seems like a poor choice to berate the model which bestows hope upon you. It too can send the storm to the fish whom are hungry for it. Let us be kind to our model friends ... Keep the hope alive GFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Imagine what life would be like without the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, bncho said: Imagine what life would be like without the GFS A lot easier and less misleading. 2 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, bncho said: Imagine what life would be like without the GFS More productive? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Not really much change through 36 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Last 5 runs of the Euro. Oldest top, new 06z bottom. to me screams trend is back and i'm back on the train. I think we go back to at least a 6-12 inches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 10 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Overall the ICON-EPS moves east and looks suppressed, although there are some definite tucks in there too. Hopefully the GFS up next doesn’t nod to the Germans. We might need a 950 low to get moisture back to Frederick with so much dry air in place: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=Td2m&runtime=2026012806&fh=99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 If I squint its a tick west, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Not really much change through 36 hr Some ass hair ticks at 54..lobe is just slightly west, but meh so far 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 AI GFS looks a tick Northwest? At least at h500 and with that initial slug of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 25 minutes ago, bncho said: Which is the more plausible option in your opinion? Trending the "kicker" wave far enough apart or trending the "kicker" wave close enough to phase? Pacific flow is too fast to back the kicker vort off, so might as well bring it closer and phase to bring that sucker up north. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: AI GFS looks a tick Northwest? At least at h500 and with that initial slug of precip. yea def a tick east 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgentworth Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Some ass hair ticks at 54..lobe is just slightly west, but meh so far Does the low being closed off over lake michigan on 12z at 60 as opposed to being more oblong and extended in the 06z make a difference or are those just lines and shapes at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Now its an asshair east but more mature who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 GFS is closing off at 500 early as well. Not sure what that means though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I remember when I first started tracking these things 84hrs was just getting into "what the **** are we dealing with range" not "ass hair ticks" range. Oh how times have changed, and yet I'd love to still be surprised Jan '00 style. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, Nomz said: Now its an asshair east but more mature who knows its east but more north at that time frame lol...maybe it wont dig so far south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 Its about to same. Hair flatter in front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, clskinsfan said: GFS is closing off at 500 early as well. Not sure what that means though. it means were screwed either way somehow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, Ji said: it means were screwed either way somehow Yes. If anything, the sfc map is east of 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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