February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[the_other_guy]

34 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

California getting 15 feet this week

It has been hot and cold there too in terms of snow. but you know that

[WeatherGeek2025]

19 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

Agreed. I’ll throw out a Facebook post after the 12z runs tomorrow if at least 75% of the models/ensembles are still showing the storm as a “lookout Sunday/Monday for something” without overhyping it. I’d probably throw in daily updates after 12z runs everyday and wouldn’t even throw out a first call on amounts until after Friday night’s 0z runs. If you call for a foot of snow a week out and it ends up being 45 and sunny, then no one will take you or your posts seriously on social media

great points i appreciate it and I will take that advice. Thanks guys

[qg_omega]

Just now, the_other_guy said:

It has been hot and cold there too in terms of snow. but you know that

Been terrible but now into March April looks good for them

[MJO812]

Here comes the gfs

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Here comes the gfs

I was going to say Incoming!

[WeatherGeek2025]

looks like a 3-6 inch snow event on the GFS, much weaker and southeast of last run!

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

looks like a 3-6 inch snow event on the GFS, much weaker and southeast of last run!

At least its there. Nice run.

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Been terrible but now into March April looks good for them

too little too late for most ski resorts-was in CO a couple weeks ago it was awful and alot of people canceled their trips

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

looks like a 3-6 inch snow event on the GFS, much weaker and southeast of last run!

Too far out to micro manage this storm its still where we want it - its all frozen - not cutting west of us

[MJO812]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Too far out to micro manage this storm its still where we want it - its all frozen - not cutting west of us

AI Gfs is a big coastal hugger 

[SnoSki14]

The only model I'm watching is the Euro AI

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AI Gfs is a big coastal hugger 

good thing is the water temps are only a few degrees close to 32- I think the AI is overdone if there is no support- but too far out still

[Snowguy66]

I would argue. DT just sucks.  He's been wrong so many times and in years where there hasn't been a shut down.   Just DT being DT.  He is a train wreck.

[Snowguy66]

How soon we forget.  The models were all over the place last year.  Did we all forget that?

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

How soon we forget.  The models were all over the place last year.  Did we all forget that?

they are usually all over the place especially more then 5 days out thats why creating a storm thread now is not a good idea - I am really interested in what the Canadian has at 0Z - it had nothing but a LP in the Great Lakes at 12Z basically with all the southern energy and precip swinging through to its south like a front

[SnowGoose69]

AIGFS is like a 2/1995 redux.  ICON was going to be well south and flat this run.

[NEG NAO]

11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

AIGFS is like a 2/1995 redux.  ICON was going to be well south and flat this run.

Snow storm, February 3-4, 1995 - Storm Summary

[WeatherGeek2025]

30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The only model I'm watching is the Euro AI

it seems like the Euro AI has more or less been 100% this winter! Best performing model hands down!! I don't think it missed one storm

[WeatherGeek2025]

Gfs AI is full of precip at least we won't be in drought anymore if that verified!

[NEG NAO]

32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The only model I'm watching is the Euro AI

yes always good idea to put all your eggs into one basket

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

yes always good idea to put all your eggs into one basket

if they're organic I would!

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it seems like the Euro AI has more or less been 100% this winter! Best performing model hands down!! I don't think it missed one storm

Inside 120, beyond 120 its been overall not great.  It was not too good on this last event, had us getting almost nothing til 2 days ago.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will see highs reach the middle 40s. Some rain showers or a period of rain is likely on Wednesday into perhaps early Thursday as a system streaks rapidly from Minnesota across central New York State and into New England. Parts of central New York State and southern/central New England, including Boston, could see some accumulating snow.

Additional precipitation could arrive Friday or Saturday. Highs will likely reach the 40s through Saturday. 

A few ensemble members (20% EPS members at 2/16 12z with 6" or more snow) and occasional operational runs (2/16 6z GFS and 12z Icon) have continued to suggest the potential for a significant or major snowstorm some time in the February 21-24 timeframe. More evidence in the form of model consensus and support from a large number of individual ensemble members will be needed before there can be reasonable confidence in such a solution. For now, one is dealing with a low probability but high-impact scenario.

An AO-/PNA- pattern, which is forecast for the timeframe involved, has seen a number of significant or major snowstorms during the second half of February. Since 1950, New York City has seen four 6" or above snowstorms during such patterns, including the 1979 President's Day blizzard (12.7") and the February 25-26, 2010 snowstorm (20.9"). In contrast, during AO+/PNA- patterns, New York City has seen just one 6" or above snowstorm. Details should start to become clearer by Wednesday or Thursday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will develop during the close of winter.

The SOI was +10.90 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.799 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8 below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

[Nibor]

AI euro would end the winter with a bang. 

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will see highs reach the middle 40s. Some rain showers or a period of rain is likely on Wednesday into perhaps early Thursday as a system streaks rapidly from Minnesota across central New York State and into New England. Parts of central New York State and southern/central New England, including Boston, could see some accumulating snow.

Additional precipitation could arrive Friday or Saturday. Highs will likely reach the 40s through Saturday. 

A few ensemble members (20% EPS members at 2/16 12z with 6" or more snow) and occasional operational runs (2/16 6z GFS and 12z Icon) have continued to suggest the potential for a significant or major snowstorm some time in the February 21-24 timeframe. More evidence in the form of model consensus and support from a large number of individual ensemble members will be needed before there can be reasonable confidence in such a solution. For now, one is dealing with a low probability but high-impact scenario.

An AO-/PNA- pattern, which is forecast for the timeframe involved, has seen a number of significant or major snowstorms during the second half of February. Since 1950, New York City has seen four 6" or above snowstorms during such patterns, including the 1979 President's Day blizzard (12.7") and the February 25-26, 2010 snowstorm (20.9"). In contrast, during AO+/PNA- patterns, New York City has seen just one 6" or above snowstorm. Details should start to become clearer by Wednesday or Thursday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will develop during the close of winter.

The SOI was +10.90 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.799 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8 below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

Some folks here have suggested you start the storm thread when and if  the time is right - some of the info you just provided can be included ?

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

AI euro would end the winter with a bang. 

 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Some folks here have suggested you start the storm thread when and if  the time is right - some of the info you just provided can be included ?

Even if I don't start the storm thread (and I hope we will have a storm to track), people can feel free to use any information I post. 

[greenmtnwx]

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Bozeman today. looks and feels like summer here. sunny and 60. not a flake of snow.

 

Jives with my last few SLC trips. Under an inch for season.

Devastating winter out west and a summer water crisis coming

My son lives in Bozeman and goes to MSU. The winter they have had has made the people out there reconsider what winter is. They are blown away by how warm and dry it has been and are very concerned about fire season. Most days this winter he’s worn a T-shirt and shorts, it’s been in the 50s and 60s. A lot of unhappy locals who live there for the skiing and the outdoor recreation in winter. Rough year. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

euro ai 18z is a NUKE

 

[cleetussnow]

18 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

My son lives in Bozeman and goes to MSU. The winter they have had has made the people out there reconsider what winter is. They are blown away by how warm and dry it has been and are very concerned about fire season. Most days this winter he’s worn a T-shirt and shorts, it’s been in the 50s and 60s. A lot of unhappy locals who live there for the skiing and the outdoor recreation in winter. Rough year. 

Their turn in the barrel.