February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[MJO812]

Eps

[RU848789]

CMC looks good and the Euro is a monster with phasing and dynamic cooling ftw (along with EPS and AIFS-EPS and the AIFS jumped 100-150 miles north), but not the UK/GFS.  I think we now have something legitimate to track, at least, even if the setup is still pretty marginal for snow in these parts.  Ya never know and it seems like it's been a long time since we had a marginal pattern/setup deliver a threaded needle for us.  

 

[MJO812]

Feeding my newborn and watching the models. He smiled when I showed him the euro.

[NEG NAO]

6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Feb is typically our snowiest month but so far and as far as we can see it’s a strikeout. Maybe something will happen by the end of the month but it’s not promising right now. I don’t think this winter is a failure by any means like the last few but if we strike out on snow from here it’ll be average or a little better in general because of the cold. But that’s my opinion. 

C

[NEG NAO]

If the Euro and Canadian show a similar snowy solution at 12Z - this snowstorm potential is real IMO since it would be only a few days away - hard to believe the current GFS would lead the way on this. The northern stream relaxing a little is key to prevent suppression. Also this time of the year you can get a snowstorm around here with marginal cold enough air and with the water temps in the lower to some mid 30's that helps also.......

[RU848789]

Well, most of NNJ/CNJ (along/N of 78)/SENY just got some freezing rain over the last couple of hours, so those advisories were well placed. Everything here is coated with a thin glaze of ice, although salted paved surfaces are fine, but unsalted ones are a bit slick and probably worse along/N of 78 where more freezing rain fell. Temps don't go above 32F for most until 7-9 am, so be careful if you're an early riser.

[SnoSki14]

No chance in hell the Euro verifies 

Cold source is minimal. If there's a storm it will be more like the Icon and rain 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

No chance in hell the Euro verifies 

Cold source is minimal. If there's a storm it will be more like the Icon and rain 

LOL

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

No chance in hell the Euro verifies 

Cold source is minimal. If there's a storm it will be more like the Icon and rain 

If the detail about the cold source being minimal is true, especially after the cold streak that just happened, then the winter is just about over. The beginning of March is going to really torch, and by the time we get below average temperatures again (if we even do), it will be too late for snow.

[steve392]

Soo did it rain, sleet, freezing rain, snow?  Everything is a sheet if ice by me. 

[ag3]

Icy here as well. Garbage.

[TriPol]

PD Storm III. 

No one start a thread until Saturday.

[qg_omega]

Must have poured freezing rain wow insane

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, WX-PA said:

Most storms in any winter are supressed. cutters ect. If it wasn't NYC would have 100 inches of snow every winter.Reason February has been snowless is because of arctic high pressure over us.We were too cold..Still have the rest of February and March. I think this winter will have above normal snow in NYC. Many area's have already achieved it. Wouldn't lump this winter with the awful years of 2018-2025

Most storms since 2018-2019 have been cutters, huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. We have also had numerous hugger gradients where the low was south but the mixing line pushed into the I-78 to I-84 corridor due to lack of cold high pressure over New England and an amped Southeast Ridge.

January 2026 was our first 10”+ benchmark snowstorm from EWR to ISP and nearby suburbs since January 2022. 

From 2010 to 2018 we had a record number of benchmark 10”+ snowstorm tracks. During the 2002 to 2009 period we also had more benchmark storm tracks.

From 1993 there to 2001 we had a blend of storm tracks including the Miller A track east of the APPS which used to give Central and Eastern PA the record snows those years. That track has mostly been missing over the last 20 years.

The 1960s to 1980s featured more of a blend of storm tracks.

So there haven’t  been any years since the mid 90s that the coastal areas from EWR to ISP didn’t reach 25” without at least one major 10”+KU benchmark snowstorm. Prior to the mid 90s we had a wider variety of the storm tracks so we didn’t have to exclusively rely on 10”+ major benchmark snowstorm tracks to get to 25” from EWR to ISP.

[jm1220]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Feeding my newborn and watching the models. He smiled when I showed him the euro.

The Little Metfan storm? 

[jm1220]

5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

C

If it happens awesome. 138 hours left. 

[donsutherland1]

From last night's light freezing rain:

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

C

And its AI cousin says:

[WestBabylonWeather]

5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

C

Not where I wanna be this far out. Was a decent winter. If it happens it happens. Doubt it 

[Tatamy]

06z Euro - the coast rains

 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Not where I wanna be this far out. Was a decent winter. If it happens it happens. Doubt it 

Even if we get a good track we have to deal with marginal cold at best. Of course we might finally get the storm but now the cold is gone. 

[Nibor]

Haven't seen the Euro AI make this big of a shift within 7 days in a while.

[nycsnow]

26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Even if we get a good track we have to deal with marginal cold at best. Of course we might finally get the storm but now the cold is gone. 

Ya 6z euro shows that. Monster rainstorm. Hopefully not 

[nycsnow]

Euro ai eps north

[nycsnow]

Regular eps

[EastonSN+]

21 hours ago, WX-PA said:

Most storms in any winter are supressed. cutters ect. If it wasn't NYC would have 100 inches of snow every winter.Reason February has been snowless is because of arctic high pressure over us.We were too cold..Still have the rest of February and March. I think this winter will have above normal snow in NYC. Many area's have already achieved it. Wouldn't lump this winter with the awful years of 2018-2025

I just see a repeat of my childhood. From 1970 to 1999 it seemed to always change to rain, suppressed, clippers etc. There is a reason CPK only had 4 above average snowfall seasons inb30 years. 1994 was extremely frustrating outside of a couple storms as it was colder than this year and we still repeatedly changed to ice and rain. 

 

[nycsnow]

Hopefully the water temps being 31-35 degrees help out keeping things cool

[Wxbear25]

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Hopefully the water temps being 31-35 degrees help out keeping things cool

Won’t matter if the mid-levels are toasty

we really need that northern stream involvement to help inject some cold air into the equation, or else you get what the 6z Euro shows which is a pounding rainstorm with a very, very small area of snow on the northernmost fringe

[MJO812]

Wow what a turnaround 

[nycsnow]

4 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

Won’t matter if the mid-levels are toasty

we really need that northern stream involvement to help inject some cold air into the equation, or else you get what the 6z Euro shows which is a pounding rainstorm with a very, very small area of snow on the northernmost fringe

I guess I rather track something than a southern slider