February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[Nibor]

 

[Wannabehippie]

37 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Get ready folks !

From where is this image?

[the_other_guy]

After all this we are going to put a near goose egg in the snowfall books for February? Is this really unfolding in front of us?

[SACRUS]

 

Chill Ice box 

 

2/7
EWR;  28 / 7 (-16) 
NYC:  27 / 6 (-17)
LGA;  28 / 7 (-17)
JFK:  28 / 6 (-16)

 

2/8:
EWR:  19 / 5 (-22)
NYC: 18 / 3 (-24)
LGA: 20 / 5 (-22)
JFK:  18 / 3 (-22)

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

After all this we are going to put a near goose egg in the snowfall books for February? Is this really unfolding in front of us?

I don't think we'll be completely shut out

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

After all this we are going to put a near goose egg in the snowfall books for February? Is this really unfolding in front of us?

Too much of a good thing (the cold)   Dry as a bone since the 1/25 storm

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Too much of a good thing (the cold)   Dry as a bone since the 1/25 storm

 

Lets hope when the forecasted proverbial flood gates open 2/15-2/16 we can hold onto the cold for some duration.

[SACRUS]

 

Most of this or nearly all of this is from 2/15 into 2/16 Sun / Mon 

[Intensewind002]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Too much of a good thing (the cold)   Dry as a bone since the 1/25 storm

Straight out of the 70s and 80s winters 

[NEG NAO]

23 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

After all this we are going to put a near goose egg in the snowfall books for February? Is this really unfolding in front of us?

FYI today is Feb. 9th - premature IMO to even entertain that thought sorry ! Reminds me of all the warmsters here back in early January 

[bluewave]

It’s par for the course after the 1995-1996 winter for consecutive 10”+ snowfall months to be followed by one under 10”. Very difficult to go 3 in a row in the this area. Snowy patterns have been difficult to sustain for more than a month or two around here. These are all the winters at ISP with 10”+ Decembers.
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY 10”+ months bolded 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2009-2010	0.0	25.3	6.4	21.7	0.4	0.0	53.8
2002-2003	1.0	16.0	2.6	26.3	3.7	5.0	54.6
2003-2004	0.0	15.5	19.1	1.1	5.7	0.0	41.4
2010-2011	T	14.9	34.4	3.9	2.1	T	55.3
1995-1996	3.0	13.3	20.2	19.0	12.0	9.6	77.1
2025-2026	T	12.5	14.9	1.2	M	M	28.6
1969-1970	T	12.0	7.0	7.0	1.0	T	27.0
1975-1976	T	11.0	7.8	7.5	3.9	0.0	30.2
1963-1964	T	11.0	11.7	16.0	1.0	0.0	39.7
2000-2001	0.0	10.8	9.2	8.6	10.3	T	38.9
2008-2009	T	10.4	8.9	3.3	13.6	T	36.2
1988-1989	0.0	10.4	4.4	1.2	3.0	T	19.0

[MANDA]

Two interesting videos:

https://x.com/i/status/2020641229676089405

 

https://x.com/i/status/2020626195717714010

 

[NyWxGuy]

32 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

After all this we are going to put a near goose egg in the snowfall books for February? Is this really unfolding in front of us?

Yes. Steve D from NYNJPA weather says we’re In a lose lose situation for the weekend. Trough digs too much in southeast so it’s a southern slider or the western trough digs too much so the storm amps up and cuts. No favorable pattern for snow for mid Atlantic for a while, he says. Our hopes for an average snowfall season will have to hinge on a March SSW I believe 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s par for the course after the 1995-1996 winter for consecutive 10”+ snowfall months to be followed by one under 10”. Very difficult to go 3 in a row in the this area. Snowy patterns have been difficult to sustain for more than a month or two around here. These are all the winters at ISP with 10”+ Decembers.
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY 10”+ months bolded 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2009-2010	0.0	25.3	6.4	21.7	0.4	0.0	53.8
2002-2003	1.0	16.0	2.6	26.3	3.7	5.0	54.6
2003-2004	0.0	15.5	19.1	1.1	5.7	0.0	41.4
2010-2011	T	14.9	34.4	3.9	2.1	T	55.3
1995-1996	3.0	13.3	20.2	19.0	12.0	9.6	77.1
2025-2026	T	12.5	14.9	1.2	M	M	28.6
1969-1970	T	12.0	7.0	7.0	1.0	T	27.0
1975-1976	T	11.0	7.8	7.5	3.9	0.0	30.2
1963-1964	T	11.0	11.7	16.0	1.0	0.0	39.7
2000-2001	0.0	10.8	9.2	8.6	10.3	T	38.9
2008-2009	T	10.4	8.9	3.3	13.6	T	36.2
1988-1989	0.0	10.4	4.4	1.2	3.0	T	19.0

NYC average snowfall for February is still under 10 inches - anything more is above average of course and not expected BUT not impossible

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, NyWxGuy said:

Yes. Steve D from NYNJPA weather says we’re In a lose lose situation for the weekend. Trough digs too much in southeast so it’s a southern slider or the western trough digs too much so the storm amps up and cuts. No favorable pattern for snow for mid Atlantic for a while, he says. Our hopes for an average snowfall season will have to hinge on a March SSW I believe 

Storm is not going to cut past the lower Ohio Valley because of all the blocking up north - it's going to be a Miller B where it reforms somewhere off the Mid- Atlantic coast and all the fine details are not obvious yet more questions than answers at the moment . As for Steve he has a knack for busts in his forecast just like many others online - not that there is anything wrong with that .

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said:

Yes. Steve D from NYNJPA weather says we’re In a lose lose situation for the weekend. Trough digs too much in southeast so it’s a southern slider or the western trough digs too much so the storm amps up and cuts. No favorable pattern for snow for mid Atlantic for a while, he says. Our hopes for an average snowfall season will have to hinge on a March SSW I believe 

What good is a March SSWE going to do? March is a spring month. There’s always a lag of weeks between when one happens and when it affects the tropospheric pattern. Met spring starts 3/1 and astronomical spring starts on 3/20. If you want a cold, wet/rainy spring then I guess you’d root for it…..

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

What good is a March SSWE going to do? March is a spring month. There’s always a lag of weeks between when one happens and when it affects the tropospheric pattern. Met spring starts 3/1 and astronomical spring starts on 3/20. If you want a cold, wet/rainy spring then I guess you’d root for it…..

yeah you need it by about 2/20 for it to pay any dividends.   March 2018 had the SSW in mid Feb and then we had the epic month

[the_other_guy]

30 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

FYI today is Feb. 9th - premature IMO to even entertain that thought sorry ! Reminds me of all the warmsters here back in early January 

yeah, but we could see out a week. So it’s really not February 9. We’re really up to February 15 in a 28 day month. 

 

All we know is we’re halfway with nothing

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

NYC average snowfall for February is still under 10 inches - anything more is above average of course and not expected BUT not impossible

We lost the snowy pattern back in late January. December was very unusual in that it was the first time we had two 4-8” clippers over such a short stretch for the month. It was the perfect 500mb pattern for maxing out the Northern Stream snowfall potential.

That pattern shifted in January which opened the door to our first widespread benchmark 10”+ snowstorm since 2022 as the forcing shifted east of the Dateline allowing the STJ to become active for a week.

The only time our area had multiple 10”+ snowstorms under 7 days apart was in February 1994. So that 2nd event which brought record snows to the Carolinas statistically would have been tough to pull off since we need more time for NESIS snowstorm patterns to reload here.

While we could have more accumulating snow before the season ends, this faster split flow regime probably won’t be able produce another widespread 10”+ benchmark event near the coast here. 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

After all this we are going to put a near goose egg in the snowfall books for February? Is this really unfolding in front of us?

it is looking that way. frankly, i'm sick of the frigid air and salt. 

[weatherpruf]

49 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Straight out of the 70s and 80s winters 

we had more rain

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We lost the snowy pattern back in late January. December was very unusual in that it was the first time we had two 4-8” clippers over such a short stretch for the month. It was the perfect 500mb pattern for maxing out the Northern Stream snowfall potential.

That pattern shifted in January which opened the door to our first widespread benchmark 10”+ snowstorm since 2022 as the forcing shifted east of the Dateline allowing the STJ to become active for a week.

The only time our area had multiple 10”+ snowstorms under 7 days apart was in February 1994. So that 2nd event which brought record snows to the Carolinas statistically would have been tough to pull off since we need more time for NESIS snowstorm patterns to reload here.

While we could have more accumulating snow before the season ends, this faster split flow regime probably won’t be able produce another widespread 10”+ benchmark event near the coast here. 

I have almost 31” for the season so I can’t call that a disappointment (even if it’s a little below normal for the season still) but it would be a major bummer still if we strike out on snow from here on out. Pretty confident though we can still get enough together to make it above average. Central Park is further away from normal 21”, it might be tough getting them to near 30” even though a couple events were undermeasured. 

[weatherpruf]

26 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Storm is not going to cut past the lower Ohio Valley because of all the blocking up north - it's going to be a Miller B where it reforms somewhere off the Mid- Atlantic coast and all the fine details are not obvious yet more questions than answers at the moment . As for Steve he has a knack for busts in his forecast just like many others online - not that there is anything wrong with that .

if there is one guy i wouldn't put much stock into, it is this guy. i've seen him hold onto forecasts when it was obvious he was wrong, and most others had abandoned ship.

[SACRUS]

 

Bright sunshine and to 22 here, what a difference when the winds calm ,almost shorts weather

 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

if there is one guy i wouldn't put much stock into, it is this guy. i've seen him hold onto forecasts when it was obvious he was wrong, and most others had abandoned ship.

But everything he says in this case makes sense

[snowman19]

23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah you need it by about 2/20 for it to pay any dividends.   March 2018 had the SSW in mid Feb and then we had the epic month

Correct. 2/21 is when winter really starts to wind down. “Prime” snow season for us is 12/20 - 2/20

[WX-PA]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

What good is a March SSWE going to do? March is a spring month. There’s always a lag of weeks between when one happens and when it affects the tropospheric pattern. Met spring starts 3/1 and astronomical spring starts on 3/20. If you want a cold, wet/rainy spring then I guess you’d root for it…..

There have been many snowstorms in March,some blizzards. Yes you can get temps in the 70's but the next day it can snow..March has always been that type of month here

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

I don't think we'll be completely shut out

How many times this meteorological winter will we say with confidence that this time there’s no way it’s going to snow meaningfully again looking out beyond ten days, only for a new threat to materialize immediately after.

[NEG NAO]

15 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

it is looking that way. frankly, i'm sick of the frigid air and salt. 

Roads around here are not blacktop anymore - they are grey/whitetop - pothole season right around the corner..........

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Roads around here are not blacktop anymore - they are grey/whitetop - pothole season right around the corner..........

I wouldn't mind if 2/15-16 is a driving rainstorm to wash it all away