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February 2026 OBS & Discussion


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1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Smithtown 8:30 pm 28/20  Flurries

Due to the developing flizzard emergency, we are suspending the hourly ISP 1978 re-enactment.  Here for your perusal is the complete set of metars (decoded) from that once in a lifetime event:

 

KISP - Islip, NY                                  
Date Time (EST) Temp   Dew Point   Humidity   Sea Level Pressure   Visibility   Wind Dir   Wind Speed   Gust Speed   Events
2/6/1978 12:00 AM 23.0   3.0   42   30.26   7.0   North   11.5   -    
2/6/1978 1:00 AM 26.1   1.9   35   30.20   7.0   NNE   17.3   -    
2/6/1978 2:00 AM 25.0   1.0   36   30.22   7.0   NNE   13.8   -    
2/6/1978 3:00 AM 25.0   19.9   81   30.19   2.0   NE   15.0   -   Snow
2/6/1978 4:00 AM 25.0   19.9   81   30.15   3.0   NE   16.1   -   Snow
2/6/1978 5:00 AM 25.0   21.0   85   30.12   2.0   NE   23.0   -   Snow
2/6/1978 6:00 AM 24.1   19.0   81   30.09   2.0   NNE   23.0   -   Snow
2/6/1978 6:25 AM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   30.08   1.0   NNE   23.0   -    
2/6/1978 7:00 AM 24.1   19.9   84   30.07   0.5   NNE   23.0   -   Snow
2/6/1978 8:00 AM 24.1   21.0   88   30.01   0.2   NE   25.3   -   Snow
2/6/1978 8:11 AM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   30.00   0.5   NE   20.7   -    
2/6/1978 9:00 AM 26.1   21.9   84   29.99   0.2   NE   21.9   -   Snow
2/6/1978 9:15 AM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   29.94   0.2   NE   19.6   34.5    
2/6/1978 10:00 AM 27.0   24.1   89   29.94   0.1   NE   23.0   34.5   Snow
2/6/1978 11:00 AM 27.0   25.0   92   29.88   0.1   NNE   25.3   40.3   Snow
2/6/1978 12:00 PM 27.0   25.0   92   29.78   0.1   NNE   23.0   34.5   Snow
2/6/1978 12:05 PM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   29.74   0.0   NE   29.9   39.1    
2/6/1978 1:00 PM 27.0   26.1   96   29.69   0.0   NNE   32.2   41.4   Snow
2/6/1978 2:00 PM 28.0   26.1   92   29.63   0.0   NE   32.2   40.3   Snow
2/6/1978 3:00 PM 28.9   28.0   96   29.54   0.0   NE   40.3   56.4   Snow
2/6/1978 4:00 PM 30.0   28.0   92   29.49   0.0   NE   46.0   59.8   Snow
2/6/1978 5:00 PM 30.0   27.0   88   29.46   0.0   NE   28.8   47.2   Snow
2/6/1978 6:00 PM 28.0   27.0   96   29.44   0.1   NE   34.5   -   Snow
2/6/1978 7:00 PM 27.0   26.1   96   29.40   0.0   NE   38.0   46.0   Snow
2/6/1978 8:00 PM 26.1   26.1   100   29.34   0.0   North   28.8   43.7   Snow
2/6/1978 9:00 PM 21.9   19.9   92   29.30   0.0   North   28.8   48.3   Snow
2/6/1978 10:00 PM 23.0   21.9   96   29.26   0.1   North   23.0   40.3   Snow
2/6/1978 10:30 PM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   29.24   5.5   NNE   23.0   40.3    
2/6/1978 11:00 PM 32.0   30.0   92   29.24   0.6   NNE   25.3   -   Snow
2/7/1978 12:00 AM 33.1   30.9   92   29.24   0.8   NNE   28.8   -   Snow
2/7/1978 1:00 AM 33.1   30.9   92   29.28   0.2   NE   18.4   -   Snow-Thunderstorm
2/7/1978 1:05 AM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   29.26   0.2   NE   19.6   27.6    
2/7/1978 2:00 AM 30.0   28.9   96   29.28   0.1   NNE   26.5   -   Snow
2/7/1978 3:00 AM 27.0   26.1   96   29.31   0.3   NNE   28.8   -   Snow
2/7/1978 4:00 AM 25.0   24.1   96   29.33   0.2   NNE   28.8   40.3   Snow
2/7/1978 5:00 AM 24.1   23.0   96   29.35   0.2   NNE   25.3   -   Snow
2/7/1978 5:05 AM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   29.35   0.4   North   23.0   34.5    
2/7/1978 6:00 AM 23.0   21.0   92   29.38   0.5   North   23.0   -   Snow
2/7/1978 7:00 AM 24.1   19.9   84   29.40   5.0   North   23.0   29.9   Snow
2/7/1978 8:00 AM 24.1   19.9   84   29.43   1.0   North   23.0   -   Snow
2/7/1978 9:00 AM 25.0   21.0   85   29.47   0.5   North   26.5   -   Snow
2/7/1978 9:10 AM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   0.00   0.1   NW   19.6   26.5    
2/7/1978 10:00 AM 24.1   21.0   88   29.50   0.1   NNW   20.7   27.6   Snow
2/7/1978 10:04 AM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   0.00   0.6   NNW   20.7   27.6    
2/7/1978 11:00 AM 24.1   21.0   88   29.52   0.1   NNW   20.7   -   Snow
2/7/1978 12:00 PM 24.1   21.9   91   29.55   0.1   NNW   25.3   35.7   Snow
2/7/1978 1:00 PM 25.0   21.9   88   29.57   0.2   NNW   20.7   35.7   Snow
2/7/1978 1:15 PM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   29.57   1.0   NW   23.0   36.8    
2/7/1978 2:00 PM 26.1   21.9   84   29.60   0.2   NNW   23.0   38.0   Snow
2/7/1978 3:00 PM 26.1   21.9   84   29.63   0.2   NNW   23.0   -   Snow
2/7/1978 3:30 PM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   0.00   3.0   NNW   23.0   32.2    
2/7/1978 4:00 PM 26.1   24.1   92   29.66   1.0   NW   20.7   -   Snow
2/7/1978 4:10 PM -9999.0   -9999.0             N/A   29.68   5.0   NW   20.7   -    
2/7/1978 5:00 PM 26.1   24.1   92   29.71   5.0   NNW   20.7   28.8   Snow
2/7/1978 6:00 PM 27.0   24.1   89   29.76   5.0   NNW   23.0   31.1   Snow
2/7/1978 7:00 PM 26.1   23.0   88   29.79   10.0   NW   17.3   -   Snow
2/7/1978 8:00 PM 26.1   21.9   84   29.83   10.0   NW   18.4   -    
2/7/1978 9:00 PM 26.1   23.0   88   29.86   10.0   NW   19.6   -    
2/7/1978 10:00 PM 26.1   23.0   88   29.90   10.0   NW   15.0   -    
2/7/1978 11:00 PM 26.1   21.9   84   29.94   10.0   NW   15.0   -    

 

                     

I experienced the storm in East Northport.  The things that I remember about it are the consistently low visibility that lasted through out that day.  It averaged between 1/8 to 1/4 mile sometimes less all day.  The flakes were quite small probably because of the strong winds whipping in off LI Sound.  I measured 30” in that storm.  I didn’t see a storm like that again until 2016 when I also measured 30” where I am in Bethlehem, PA.  

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2 hours ago, Tatamy said:

I experienced the storm in East Northport.  The things that I remember about it are the consistently low visibility that lasted through out that day.  It averaged between 1/8 to 1/4 mile sometimes less all day.  The flakes were quite small probably because of the strong winds whipping in off LI Sound.  I measured 30” in that storm.  I didn’t see a storm like that again until 2016 when I also measured 30” where I am in Bethlehem, PA.  

Thanks for sharing that memory.  Do you have any photos from that?  The ones I have are here:

https://www.northshorewx.com/19780207.html

The storm did a loop south of LI, but talk about a benchmark track:

blizzard1978-sat2.jpg

 

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17 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

26/23 at midnight S- pcpn very light.

0.3" new snow, Snow depth 8"

Question: do any of the short term models input any Nexrad data?

CAM models rely heavily on nexrad data to initialize their forecasts…whoops misread your question 

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On 2/5/2026 at 6:21 PM, NorthShoreWx said:

Its a huge trade-off when it is showing the 64th longest streak as the top 18.

To illustrate with an extreme example, imagine a series where all of the values were 100 except the latest, which was 10.  To say it is the second highest ever is not useful information.

NYC had gone 15 days so far not reaching 40°. That is the 14th longest streak for NYC no matter how many years tied since we are ranking the number of days and not the individual years. With the coming cold next several days this will result in the longest streak in 20 years. 
 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 40 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 35 1945-02-08
2 34 1886-02-08
3 33 1948-02-11
4 26 1879-01-17
5 25 1881-02-08
6 23 1940-01-13
- 23 1936-02-14
- 23 1885-02-09
7 22 1968-01-17
- 22 1924-02-25
- 22 1918-02-06
- 22 1912-02-15
- 22 1893-01-24
- 22 1883-01-17
- 22 1881-01-06
8 21 2004-02-03
- 21 2000-02-06
- 21 1978-02-16
- 21 1940-02-05
- 21 1901-02-15
- 21 1895-02-16
- 21 1877-01-06
9 20 1905-02-11
- 20 1902-02-22
- 20 1888-02-03
10 19 2003-02-01
- 19 1981-01-18
- 19 1977-01-09
11 18 1970-01-16
- 18 1914-02-25
- 18 1904-01-12
- 18 1887-01-12
12 17 2005-01-31
- 17 2001-01-05
- 17 1977-01-27
- 17 1966-02-07
- 17 1961-02-04
- 17 1948-01-08
- 17 1934-02-14
- 17 1918-01-11
- 17 1910-01-01
- 17 1875-01-21
13 16 2011-02-04
- 16 1963-12-25
- 16 1884-01-30
- 16 1870-03-09
14 15 2026-02-06
- 15 2018-01-08
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Binghamton NY is -3 F with NW winds gusting to 48 mph. Sustained wind is only 18 mph suggesting very squally conditions. Even at the lower wind speed wind chill there is -25 F, probably closer to -40 during stronger gusts, 

Expect a rapid increase in wind speeds in lower Hudson as gradient tightens, once the frontal boundary moves beyond the Berkshires.

 

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37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC had gone 15 days so far not reaching 40°. That is the 14th longest streak for NYC no matter how many years tied since we are ranking the number of days and not the individual years. With the coming cold next several days this will result in the longest streak in 20 years. 
 

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 40 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 35 1945-02-08
2 34 1886-02-08
3 33 1948-02-11
4 26 1879-01-17
5 25 1881-02-08
6 23 1940-01-13
- 23 1936-02-14
- 23 1885-02-09
7 22 1968-01-17
- 22 1924-02-25
- 22 1918-02-06
- 22 1912-02-15
- 22 1893-01-24
- 22 1883-01-17
- 22 1881-01-06
8 21 2004-02-03
- 21 2000-02-06
- 21 1978-02-16
- 21 1940-02-05
- 21 1901-02-15
- 21 1895-02-16
- 21 1877-01-06
9 20 1905-02-11
- 20 1902-02-22
- 20 1888-02-03
10 19 2003-02-01
- 19 1981-01-18
- 19 1977-01-09
11 18 1970-01-16
- 18 1914-02-25
- 18 1904-01-12
- 18 1887-01-12
12 17 2005-01-31
- 17 2001-01-05
- 17 1977-01-27
- 17 1966-02-07
- 17 1961-02-04
- 17 1948-01-08
- 17 1934-02-14
- 17 1918-01-11
- 17 1910-01-01
- 17 1875-01-21
13 16 2011-02-04
- 16 1963-12-25
- 16 1884-01-30
- 16 1870-03-09
14 15 2026-02-06
- 15 2018-01-08

But there have been 46 individual instances of longer periods. That would be a much better way to put it into historical context. 

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Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

But there have been 46 individual instances of longer periods. That would be a much better way to put it into historical context. 

But I like to rank the actual temperatures and not the instances. This is why there are multiple ways of sorting. But if you like to rank the instances then you are free to. My focus is more in the weather element than how many ties there have been. Both ways are technically correct. 

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