It's coming 1/31-2/1

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Cmc very close

Yep

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i think this will be the potential track of the storm.  just an educated guess.  one or the other 

Neither of those tracks would be good for our area staying snow

[Franklin0529]

The CMC dropped 16" in 3hrs in Virginia 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Yep

35-40 inches in southern VA and Delaware

[Franklin0529]

Some day after Tommorow shit lol

[Winterweatherlover]

This feels like maybe a NYC western fringe storm while LI and ENE get bombed, we've it so much over the past 5-10 years but hopefully it trends west. 

[TriPol]

11 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i think this will be the potential track of the storm.  just an educated guess.  one or the other 

Great. Sandy without the hurricane.

[MJO812]

Gefs west of op with a west lean.

[mattinpa]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs west of op with a west lean.

Some progress tonight. Hopefully we see more tomorrow. 

[Jt17]

Ukie also close. Huge west shift from 12z


.

[SACRUS]

1/27 00Z GEFS

 

 

[Stormlover74]

We're going to need a track well inside the bm for a big hit away from the coast. Its almost wrapped up like a hurricane instead of an expansive precip shield

[Prue11]

13 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

This feels like maybe a NYC western fringe storm while LI and ENE get bombed, we've it so much over the past 5-10 years but hopefully it trends west. 

Fine by me! Central Suffolk crush job

[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Ukie also close. Huge west shift from 12z


.

 

[brooklynwx99]

this speaks for itself. insane to see this 6 days out

[Prue11]

13 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Great. Sandy without the hurricane.

The solution with the low going into Pa is highly unlikely 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

Yep different from the last storm, this one feels more all or nothing. The precip shield actually isn't that small on the current models but I could see it being even tighter as we get closer to the event.

[SACRUS]

1/27 00Z UKMET Total QPF

 

50 miles west would be a big deal

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

We're going to need a track well inside the bm for a big hit away from the coast. Its almost wrapped up like a hurricane instead of an expansive precip shield

I wonder if future runs will expand the precip shield. 

[Prue11]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this speaks for itself. insane to see this 6 days out

Do you really want to see a near perfect solution 6 days out?

[kat5hurricane]

19 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

This feels like maybe a NYC western fringe storm while LI and ENE get bombed, we've it so much over the past 5-10 years but hopefully it trends west. 

I have that feeling too for the same reasons you mentioned but it's close enough to keep our interest at the very least.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Do you really want to see a near perfect solution 6 days out?

Models are still east so there's no perfect solution on display. 

[NJwx85]

I’m kind of hoping this one misses. The piles at the end of my driveway are already shoulder high and I’m running out of room. With temps this week bitterly cold not much will melt. Starting to worry about my roof collapsing.

[Snowlover11]

Good trends, So close to something huge.

[Rjay]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

We're going to need a track well inside the bm for a big hit away from the coast. Its almost wrapped up like a hurricane instead of an expansive precip shield

Bc these runs tn are closed off so far south that its starts to occlude early and drift east.  I still think the models tn were a step in the right direction. 

[Snowlover11]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I’m kind of hoping this one misses. The piles at the end of my driveway are already shoulder high and I’m running out of room. With temps this week bitterly cold not much will melt. Starting to worry about my roof collapsing.

Not to be an ass, but your roof must be pretty unstable.  This is pure fluff for the time being.

[SnoSki14]

Actually think we're in a really good spot right now. Ridge out west is pretty far west giving us plenty of wiggle room to shift NW. 

And big storms almost always shift NW

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Bc these runs tn are closed off so far south that its starts to occlude early and drift east.  I still think the models tn were a step in the right direction. 

I kinda want to see my parents get a foot in SC 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Actually think we're in a really good spot right now. Ridge out west is pretty far west giving us plenty of wiggle room to shift NW. 

And big storms almost always shift NW

My main concern now is too much of a NW move down in the SE over time.  We don't want to see places like BHM/ATL/BNA getting accumulating snow from this, if that happens there would be a higher chance this has mixing issues up here.

[Nibor]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I’m kind of hoping this one misses. The piles at the end of my driveway are already shoulder high and I’m running out of room. With temps this week bitterly cold not much will melt. Starting to worry about my roof collapsing.

Everyone here always talks about getting crushed so take it as a win.