Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[Ginx snewx]

So all kinds of low 500 mb heights expecting to be broken down south.  Reminds me of Jan 77

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

bye guys see you on the 14th!

I think you’re an AI Bot…sent to infiltrate. 

[ineedsnow]

if that Bahama low wasn't stronger than 12z I think this NAM run might have been really good for eastern areas

[CoastalWx]

3K tickling SE MA .

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

3K tickling SE MA .

something just feels off with this storm.. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

something just feels off with this storm.. 

These stupid lows keep messing up what could have been a decent warning event at least to BOS. But they might be real since you have tremendous instability and forcing over the gulf stream. Sometimes these have some near term surprises...but guidance is fairly locked in. 

[weathafella]

27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So all kinds of low 500 mb heights expecting to be broken down south.  Reminds me of Jan 77

Awful timing personally but we take what we get.   Hopefully it’s warmer the following week.

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't disagree with Scott's observations there; spoke similarly about the unusually rich volatile instability there being "too much of a good thing" yesterday

I'll just add that the convection itself is racing away along the streamlines out there.  We're lacking a lot of more typical curvature response to the convection exhaust in the escape orientation of the isohypses.  If we had that normalcy in place it would probably help contain and low further W and other feedbacks ... it's just idiosyncratic about this particular event to be missing that.   I think the speed of the flow is outpacing that response mechanism's ability to do so.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

These stupid lows keep messing up what could have been a decent warning event at least to BOS. But they might be real since you have tremendous instability and forcing over the gulf stream. Sometimes these have some near term surprises...but guidance is fairly locked in. 

That's the thing could models be overdoing it? models have been showing low development all over.. IDK seems we might have some surprises coming.. I also think we have to see where convection forms before models really latch on.. whether that means further OTS or further west.. we wait....

[DavisStraight]

10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

something just feels off with this storm.. 

It's a Miller A, that's what feels off. They screw us and even if they hit us, they screw us.

[SouthCoastMA]

Oh 3K NAM, how we wish you were a good model 

[ineedsnow]

18z HRRR took a huge jump west but was really far east at 12z.. If I was in eastern MA I would still be watching this closely for something bigger. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't disagree with Scott's observations there; spoke similarly about the unusually rich volatile instability there being "too much of a good thing" yesterday

I'll just add that the convection it's self is racing away along the streamlines out there.  We're lacking a lot of more typical curvature response to the convection exhaust in the escape orientation of the isohypses.  If we had that normalcy in place it would probably help contain and low further W and other feedbacks ... it's just idiosyncratic about this particular event to be missing that.   I think the speed of the flow is outpacing that response mechanism's ability to do so.

It's like a racing triple point moving ENE and lacking the good baroclinic response.

[Damage In Tolland]

Something tells me it wasn’t over when Germans bombed Pearl Harbor

[wxsniss]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

These stupid lows keep messing up what could have been a decent warning event at least to BOS. But they might be real since you have tremendous instability and forcing over the gulf stream. Sometimes these have some near term surprises...but guidance is fairly locked in. 

ngl, I (and I'm sure most here) check every NAM run for hint of a surprise, even though we've declared this dead.

Without those runaway lows... you look at H5 and surface at 6z Sunday and think how can this miss a better hit on eastern areas.

One thing that keeps me intrigued: yes the convection and buckshot lows further east are consistently run after run spoiling a hit, but where that convection and lows pop up is pretty inconsistent.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's like a racing triple point moving ENE and lacking the good baroclinic response.

Right!

[Spaizzo]

Um

Sorry I didn’t have my coffee nor my glasses on I read if I unpin it…. lol


.

[ineedsnow]

About a 25 mile shift west on the ICON cape looks good

[Damage In Tolland]

Les get some snow back to the river ! Still 36-48 hours !

[Kitz Craver]

33 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

About a 25 mile shift west on the ICON cape looks good

25 mile shift east on GFS however 

[Kitz Craver]

Man this could have been so sick. Best runs, besides the ones when the thread was started, were when it was teasing the Fuji right off SNE coast couple days ago. But that was like the all time needle threader solution 

[Roger Smith]

If anyone from NS looks in, BOOM !!!! 40-60 cm potential, the low explodes and tracks ideally to bring S++ bands across the province. Cape Breton could see highest totals. Parts of Newfoundland could see 20-40 cm. 

These amounts will be wind-blown by northeast 70-110 km/hr winds. Temps near -5 C. 

At this late hour I still think there is some potential for the outer bands of this storm to back into parts of e MA, there has been a trend towards a deeper-digging 500 mb low over SC now, and you have to wonder if there might be a slow last-minute trend towards backbuilding this storm slightly, but wow such a waste of excellent ingredients unless you are of course in Nova Scotia (Sunday night into Monday Feb 2nd).