Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I mean, at the time, it was a miss for all. This isn’t even in the same stratosphere though. I guess when you’re constantly calling for event to come back or to hit or whatever, you’re bound to run into a few 

Im not calling for this to come back…I wasn’t calling for that to come back..was just pointing out that this one would not take much for you to get a decent snow out of it.  And that you say this about almost every single threat.  You said it last week. You says it the week before too. Both times it snowed on you.  You’re in a good spot. 
 

See here’s your problem…you’re so anti/and negative all the dam time, that when others say it needs to be watched(being that it’s a close call) at 2-3 days out, you misconstrue that idea,  with your misconception that it is coming back. Nobody said it’s coming back. They said it needs to be watched.  And for your area especially, it does. 

[Great Snow 1717]

Nearly 75 pages on this lol....

[Lava Rock]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Nearly 75 pages on this lol....

on to Feb....

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Guess we'll just call this the storm that could have been. I for sure thought this was going to come up the coast days ago but totally wrong on that. dendrites post this morning illustrated why it wasn't happening and those signals with trough, dPVA, and dynamics were there the whole time to tell the story. 

Ah... there's multiple reasons why this thing's behaving the way it is in the guidance - not one silver bullet.

Having a S/W cresting the western ridge, doing so at a fast rate of speed is giving this thing on the east coast an non-linear negative interference ... ( transitive destructive - ).  Some of this is going on, but not the whole story.  What Brian was discussing certainly contributes, too. 

Then there's the convection.  It occurs to me that there is an anomalously intense B-C axis in that vicinity down there.  There really has to be, when there's been days of -3 SD air mass near-by a hotter than normal SW Atlantic OHE for the past 10 years.  Ha.  I mean Jesus... the convective potential is so extreme - if that metric were kept track of, it's probably historically volatile.   Really, the expression "too much of a good thing" keeps hittin' at me.  You can't exceed a threshold of potential in convection.   Have you ever heard of the "K Index"?  It's number that describes the general convective response once trigger has taken place.   For example... in the Plains, a low K index with a very high CAPE and CIN collapse produces low counts of CB but huge super cells.  If the K Index is high... the whole region erupts all at once and kills the organized super cells... etc.   Something similar - this is where it's supposition but the more I look at this I suspect it to be so ... - is taking place where there is a high potential for convective response, with no inhibition...  The whole region is igniting pretty far ahead of the trough... and there is so much potential due to the extremes of air mass over hot water ( relatively speaking) that the convective processing is blowing a hole in the troposphere and creating a new closed 500 surface out ahead of the real tough.  That's why we are seeing this shit..

If you follow this 84 hour NAM chart back in time, you can see how the convection is evolving it's own S/W presence and then taking over...   It's like a Miller B at 500 mb level.

[ineedsnow]

FWIW the 18z ICON has some closer members compared to 12z

[SouthCoastMA]

RGEM is now a modest hit for the Cape, perhaps advisory upper/mid cape and warning level outer cape/ACK. I know, exciting for all on here. 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

RGEM is now a modest hit for the Cape, perhaps advisory.  I know, exciting for all on here. 

That was actually a pretty big shift though

[Amped]

Its essentially just an ocean effect snow event now.

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

FWIW the 18z ICON has some closer members compared to 12z

Yes, overall it was an increase in precip for se areas. Will need all guidance to start moving towards Euro by 0z, if the 18z run doesn't fold. 

[Torch Tiger]

even the ICON isn't budging from it's solution last night.  very very consistent with a cape scraper enroute

[Damage In Tolland]

Solid trends so far kicking off 18 Zed

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

I know I'm not the only one thinking this but even if this one does miss us, I really hope that we can at least score another moderate or major event before the winter ends. It would be nice. Why cant Feb 2015 be the climo norm every winter? lol

[NeonPeon]

GFS a complete whiff.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, NeonPeon said:

GFS a complete whiff.

Yup meh

[weathafella]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm getting my first colonoscopy Monday (true story)....it won't be very pleasurable, but I'll be fascinated by tracking every twist and turn of the scope on it's journey!

You’ll be asleep as it enters the coast so to speak.  

[weathafella]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Solid trends so far kicking off 18 Zed

Good ole 18 Zulu

[SouthCoastMA]

GFS focuses on the seaward low. Ass

[weathafella]

Ray will spend Sunday evacuating.  

[kdxken]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Solid trends so far kicking off 18 Zed

 

5 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

GFS a complete whiff.

Hmmm

[DavisStraight]

23 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

I know I'm not the only one thinking this but even if this one does miss us, I really hope that we can at least score another moderate or major event before the winter ends. It would be nice. Why cant Feb 2015 be the climo norm every winter? lol

Looks active, we should get another decent hit.

[kdxken]

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

14 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

GFS focuses on the seaward low. Ass

I’ll be honest, I’ll be surprised if there is measurable snow off the cape. That’s just my take. I feel like the very far outer cape could get a decent event, but the cutoff is going to be hefty 

[Ginx snewx]

On to Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 

[ineedsnow]

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

On to Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 

that sounds terrible I'm already buried as it is at work 

[CTSkywarn]

Posted just 4 hours ago by the legendary Matt Scott here in Connecticut. Perhaps still a tiny glimmer of hope left for Eastern CT and Mass?

Sent from my motorola edge plus 2023 using Tapatalk

[ineedsnow]

We just need one of those 2015 runs that comes back.. I remember looking at the Euro and thought I clicked wrong and was looking at a day 10 map 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

We just need one of those 2015 runs that comes back.. I remember looking at the Euro and thought I clicked wrong and was looking at a day 10 map 

I really thought that was happening yesterday . Still giving it till 12z tomorrow especially with the EPS improved today 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I really thought that was happening yesterday . Still giving it till 12z tomorrow especially with the EPS improved today 

curious to see what 18z shows in 45 minutes or so..

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

curious to see what 18z shows in 45 minutes or so..

I have always hated off hr runs. They are wonky but they can be a clue

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

We just need one of those 2015 runs that comes back.. I remember looking at the Euro and thought I clicked wrong and was looking at a day 10 map 

We just had one of those two weeks ago on Friday night/Saturday morning, when the euro brought back that moderate event on Martin Luther king weekend.  So Not impossible, but unlikely obviously.