Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

WTTTE

Never had a feel for this like I did last week. 

[CoastalWx]

What a waste of an explosive setup. Back to Steinangle season. 

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

This thing is cooked. Multiple lows suck, always screws a good event.

I was really hoping we would get to stack another 10-15 or possibly more on top of the 15" or so thats OTG. How often does that happen in CT? Virtually never. Last time was like 2011 when there was 3-4 feet OTG. Even another low end warning event 6-8" would have been sick. What a waste of a good setup and frigid airmass. oh well..

[SouthCoastMA]

So the ICON schooled the Euro after all, if this holds. shrug.

Still so close to something bigger here..we wait for 12z

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I was really hoping we would get to stack another 10-15 or possibly more on top of the 15" or so thats OTG. How often does that happen in CT? Virtually never. Last time was like 2011 when there was 3-4 feet OTG. Even another low end warning event 6-8" would have been sick. What a waste of a good setup and frigid airmass. oh well..

Yup my sentiments exactly. I was hoping  to go back to back for something historic. It would have been sweet to double down on this pack or even just refresh it with a 6-8 type deal, that would have been awesome.

[moneypitmike]

SE Mass might still score......but enjoy the cirrus everyone else.  Congrats Nova Scotia.

[Kitz Craver]

Every models has this stupid appendage/second low that forms way NE and it just chases right behind it out to sea. lost that dumbbell Fuji look from yesterday that pulled us all in.

[Chrisrotary12]

4 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Every models has this stupid appendage/second low that forms way NE and it just chases right behind it out to sea. lost that dumbbell Fuji look from yesterday that pulled us all in.

Too bad it’s probably real and we’re cooked. 

[CoastalWx]

34 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

great consistency.

sometimes i think we should have stuck to having it run 2X/day, same with the GFS. The mesos can run 4X so we have more up to the hour information getting close to a storm <60hrs or so. 

 

Glue factory 

[Kitz Craver]

I was holding out hope for at minimum a scrape 1-3” but this could be a clean whiff for the region, possibly including the cape

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

kevin will hold on to the sinking ship to the bitter end though 

Just got back from my run. Just to understand .. you are forecasting no snowfall in CT right. Zero snow?

[Lava Rock]

SE Mass might still score......but enjoy the cirrus everyone else.  Congrats Nova Scotia.

Would've been awesome to have scored 1-2'. Imagine the pack.

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[Kitz Craver]

A sliver of hope perhaps. I was looking at the 3k NAM thinking it has a better handle with all of the convection with this and I will say it can’t resolve where to place the SLP. Each frame it’s jumping like 50-100 miles. Maybe wait until it can resolve the multiple lows. 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just got back from my run. Just to understand .. you are forecasting no snowfall in CT right. Zero snow?

you want to know if its all or nothing? I never said zero snow, the threat for a plowable real storm is virtually gone. Maybe eastern CT gets clipped with some light snow. But the plug has been pulled on a snowstorm for CT. 

No advisory level or higher snowfall for CT, anywhere,  thats what id say right now. A flurry or some light snshrs perhaps. 

[SouthCoastMA]

No reports about 6z euro yet. must be worse 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

you want to know if its all or nothing? I never said zero snow, the threat for a plowable real storm is virtually gone. Maybe eastern CT gets clipped with some light snow. But the plug has been pulled on a snowstorm for CT. 

No advisory level or higher snowfall for CT, anywhere,  thats what id say right now. A flurry or some light snshrs perhaps. 

Ok so no chance that something doesn’t happen like some of the analog storms of that size and strength and position had that dropped 3-6. No chance the globals are missing some heavier banding getting thrown way NW of storm and the hi res won’t pick that up as we get into range? If so, then no reason to check the models anymore . For me, I’ll wait until 12z tomorrow .

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

No reports about 6z euro yet. must be worse 

Not out 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

great consistency.

sometimes i think we should have stuck to having it run 2X/day, same with the GFS. The mesos can run 4X so we have more up to the hour information getting close to a storm <60hrs or so. 

 

Is that really *that* big of an error margin at that lead time though?

Has huge impacts for an area of population but it’s like 50 miles between BOS and ORH… is getting like 50-100 mile swings on 126 to 150 hour total maps all that surprising?

Its frustrating but seems within reason… 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not out 

Scooter quit eh. Ĥmmm.

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

Yeah I mean, considering some of the S Tier analogs that were on the table several days ago its definitely disappointing that we could be looking at a whiff. I mean even scoring a few inches would be nice. Just goes to show how unreliable those early models are. Hopefully we can get some positive last minute trends.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

No reports about 6z euro yet. must be worse 

Slightly worse than 00z. You are still in the game but the rest of us are prob done

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ok so no chance that something doesn’t happen like some of the analog storms of that size and strength and position had that dropped 3-6. No chance the globals are missing some heavier banding getting thrown way NW of storm and the hi res won’t pick that up as we get into range? If so, then no reason to check the models anymore . For me, I’ll wait until 12z tomorrow to make that call 

You are playing the semantics game, you asked me what my forecast is right now, i told you. Of course theres a chance, theres always a chance even after 12Z tomorrow. Crazier things have happened in very close range. 

I'm always the first one to say that, its never 100% done. It's just extremely low right now. For far SE MA id still be interested, but thats about it. That's where i stand

[mahk_webstah]

This would be so much worse if we hadn’t just gotten a great regionwide storm, and if the pattern for February wasn’t looking so ripe with possibilities.  Always sucks to miss a coastal bomb, but if February brings us over running and maybe the occasional Miller B we’d all probably do better anyhow. Coastals are always dicey.

[The 4 Seasons]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Is that really *that* big of an error margin at that lead time though?

Has huge impacts for an area of population but it’s like 50 miles between BOS and ORH… is getting like 50-100 mile swings on 126 to 150 hour total maps all that surprising?

Its frustrating but seems within reason… 

not really, no, you're right. It's just the off-hour waffling that's annoying and seems to be a frequent thing with 6/18Z EC especially. If it were 5 years ago and all we had was the 00Z/12Z Euro it would appear much more consistent at this range. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Scooter quit eh. Ĥmmm.

It’s pretty much done

[Hoth]

A whiff is a lot easier to digest when you've already got heavy snow cover and consistent subfreezing temps.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

You are playing the semantics game, you asked me what my forecast is right now, i told you. Of course theres a chance, theres always a chance even after 12Z tomorrow. Crazier things have happened in very close range. 

I'm always the first one to say that, its never 100% done. It's just extremely low right now. For far SE MA id still be interested, but thats about it. That's where i stand

Don’t engage in the game. He’s trying to get someone to tell him this could come back or even where it’s at, that Central CT will see snow.

People obviously know you can’t rule out flurries or something. But outside of the cape, this threat is over 

[ineedsnow]

EPS close to the same as 0z maybe slightly east

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The writing was on the wall when the AI’s started ticking se.

[NeonPeon]

I'm still going to watch this, even though I think it's more likely it keeps trending worse at this point.

What else am I going to do, face the finality of death?