Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

lol.

Wrt where most of us live— PWM, BOS, NY, Philly

This is about as locked and loaded as you can get at this lead time.

I found zero things to criticize 5 days out. Teles, GEFS and EPS guidance are frickin awesome.

And the persistence/side of things is great as well…

I'm not crazy about how far to the south it digs as presently depicted.

[HoarfrostHubb]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I want some of this snow to melt. Its a friggin mess to park. 

Alot of friends who are teachers are complaining this morning. The snow is concrete right now.

The end of my driveway was brutal because of the plow that came overnight. The snowblower took care of it.   But off to school I go. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

absolutely wild, so amped.. tucked in deep members, High probs for 6"+ for a good chunk of NE. 24"+ odds for southeast Mass. Still 5 days away so wild to see those kinds of odds

987mb mean

I'm not worried at all about this missing....probably going to want the cushion later this week. It's the evolution of the life cycle that troubles me more than the track at this point.

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

987mb mean

I'm not worried at all about this missing....probably going to want the cushion later this week. It's the evolution of the life cycle that troubles me more than the track at this point.

Couldn’t agree more. 

[mreaves]

This could be a dumb question but I still suffer PTSD from that huge storm in 2010 where NYC got pummeled with snow while NNE rained. Is there a chance this amps up and plows up the CT River Valley, producing similar outcomes?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Couldn’t agree more. 

Like Kev said, it's going to snow...but is it occluded garbage, or a bomb? I know people like seeing explosive runs, but if the bomb denotes far enough away it's just not as impactful.

[Chrisrotary12]

It’s definitely a unique setup. The vort max drops due south from Hudson Bay to Atlanta and detonates off Charleston, SC. 

[Chrisrotary12]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Like Kev said, it's going to snow...but is it occluded garbage, or a bomb? I know people like seeing explosive runs, but if the bomb denotes far enough away it's just not as impactful.

Yep. Give me a 990mb LP over a 960mb LP all day. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mreaves said:

This could be a dumb question but I still suffer PTSD from that huge storm in 2010 where NYC got pummeled with snow while NNE rained. Is there a chance this amps up and plows up the CT River Valley, producing similar outcomes?

I don't think it would get that far west given the NAO block, but it could certainly tuck into the cape or maybe even se MA.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, mreaves said:

This could be a dumb question but I still suffer PTSD from that huge storm in 2010 where NYC got pummeled with snow while NNE rained. Is there a chance this amps up and plows up the CT River Valley, producing similar outcomes?

There was this one as well. January 2000.

[40/70 Benchmark]

All ENS means are kind of a graze with major impacts confined to se MA, except for the GEFS.

[dryslot]

We truly do not want this vort to go digging for oil or it will never get up here.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

We truly do not want this vort to go digging for oil or it will never get up here.

It's very unlikely to play out like that. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh, 06z EPS has collapsed latitude, and weaker, both

[Snowcrazed71]

Not sure if this will trend back West. It's possible as it's only Tuesday. We just had an amazing storm, and I think we're all grateful for finally getting something that we all were able to cash in on. But I'm not going to lie, I wouldn't mind having a blizzard this weekend ( or next )

[Ginx snewx]

37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Couldn’t agree more. 

Unless you were in CT? We definitely benefit being south. These Miller A s death bands in occluded  situations like to set up across Southern SNE see 12/21/09

[Torch Tiger]

 the escape east we've all been waiting for.  Sucks

[Damage In Tolland]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Like Kev said, it's going to snow...but is it occluded garbage, or a bomb? I know people like seeing explosive runs, but if the bomb denotes far enough away it's just not as impactful.

Yeah that’s what I was getting at . Do we get a foot .. or can we get 4 feet?

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Unless you were in CT? We definitely benefit being south. These Miller A s death bands in occluded  situations like to set up across Southern SNE see 12/21/09

I wasn't talking about Miller A systems in general...I was referencing 1 4 2018.

[Prismshine Productions]

No EPS lows even came close

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[weatherwiz]

I still think this comes farther northwest. 

The 0z Euro was add to with the H5 vort. I don't think this vort is real...might be associated with convection and it seems the Euro then shifts the focus of evolution to this vort and results in south and east. 

[weatherwiz]

Keep in mind the struggle the models have with the shallow nature of Arctic airmasses. Where the GFS and even Euro are developing the sfc low off the Carolina coast...probably shift that 50-75 miles farther northwest along the with whole storm track. I think this one has a great chance of passing right over the benchmark. The only thing I don't want to see is this bomb to something into the 980's or lower. 

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, cut said:

Seeing this from you is a big nod to the likeliness here. Good to see.

That’s not how this works unfortunately. You see, when the Pope hates a set up, and tells everybody that it will never work etc etc..like he just did with this past one, that’s when we get the storm.  When he’s pumped like he is now, it’s pretty much a gonner.  We’ve even it many times sadly.  
 

So the only plus we have going right now, is that it’s still 5 days away.  But the pope being giddy is a bad sign for sure.  But maybe he proves his track record wrong(finds the nut) with this one.  But it’s not a good sign at all. 

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I still think this comes farther northwest. 

The 0z Euro was add to with the H5 vort. I don't think this vort is real...might be associated with convection and it seems the Euro then shifts the focus of evolution to this vort and results in south and east. 

That ridge out west(with its apex over the chimney of Idaho) in that depiction is in a perfect spot…we like to see that.  Hopefully it can get up here, and not slip OTS.  

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That ridge out west(with its apex over the chimney of Idaho) in that depiction is in a perfect spot…we like to see that.  Hopefully it can get up here, and not slip OTS.  

There isn't much I really see, at least on the large-scale, that indicates this would go out to sea. Now, that doesn't mean this can't end up tracking far enough away that it only grazes the coast but I don't see a totally OTS solution here. I like the building -NAO too, particularly west based. I guess ultimately it would be best to get the 500 energy to dig slightly more west into Alabama but not a big issue at this stage

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

There isn't much I really see, at least on the large-scale, that indicates this would go out to sea. Now, that doesn't mean this can't end up tracking far enough away that it only grazes the coast but I don't see a totally OTS solution here. I like the building -NAO too, particularly west based. I guess ultimately it would be best to get the 500 energy to dig slightly more west into Alabama but not a big issue at this stage

No doubt it’s a great looking set up…at least as it currently stands, but we all know these little things change as the said timeframe approaches, and that’s where the uncertainty lies.  Hopefully they change slightly in our favor. 

[Ginx snewx]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wasn't talking about Miller A systems in general...I was referencing 1 4 2018.

I was responding to Donnie 2 states.

[Typhoon Tip]

I think we got about 2 ...maybe 3 cycles remaining. After that, it's probably a consensus go or no go

[Ginx snewx]

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s not how this works unfortunately. You see, when the Pope hates a set up, and tells everybody that it will never work etc etc..like he just did with this past one, that’s when we get the storm.  When he’s pumped like he is now, it’s pretty much a gonner.  We’ve even it many times sadly.  
 

So the only plus we have going right now, is that it’s still 5 days away.  But the pope being giddy is a bad sign for sure.  But maybe he proves his track record wrong(finds the nut) with this one.  But it’s not a good sign at all. 

Tip started the thread.  Death Knoll. (Insert Psycho babble response) j/k John 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No doubt it’s a great looking set up…at least as it currently stands, but we all know these little things change as the said timeframe approaches, and that’s where the uncertainty lies.  Hopefully they change slightly in our favor. 

Agreed, my guess is we see changes in our favor.