bncho Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 minutes ago, Heisy said: That would be painful, euro Ai and gfs Ai delay the wave so much we lose 50/50 influence. It almost cuts it off from the flow @GreyHat thinks it’s light QPF, paltry at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Im trying to see my house behind that 19.8 It's right next to your outhouse with the half moon on the door. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, mitchnick said: It's right next to your outhouse with the half moon on the door. I waited until they got indoor plumbing to move here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 7 minutes ago, bncho said: It’s a slop storm verbatim. Probably around 5-8:1 ratios. Temps are around 35-38 in the metros. That qpf distribution though during our prime climo… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 22 minutes ago, bncho said: It’s a slop storm verbatim. Probably around 5-8:1 ratios. Temps are around 35-38 in the metros. Would be interesting to see what the ground effects would be with how cold it's been. Its going to warm up a little next week but it's literally a frozen tundra out there right now. Snowing at 34 degrees after the last few weeks should have a different effect than what we normally see around these parts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 33 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Im trying to see my house behind that 19.8 It won't look like that in a day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 30 minutes ago, bncho said: @GreyHat thinks it’s light QPF, paltry at best. Don’t let me get started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 The ai models aren’t meant for those details. Nothing is at this range frankly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Ahhh, why do I keep forgetting that. Can we trade him for GreyHat?I was focused on 95 SE hah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 The ai models aren’t meant for those details. Nothing is at this range frankly Yea def, only thing I would take away is the delay in the shortwave vs the OPs, but this thing is still really far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 WB 18Z AI EPS was basically a hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 End of OP euro trended towards the Ai with delaying the wave. Would have been a vastly different solution vs its 12z run which was kind of on its own vs other guidance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: End of OP euro trended towards the Ai with delaying the wave. Would have been a vastly different solution vs its 12z run which was kind of on its own vs other guidance So we WANT a delay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So we WANT a delay? Euro is waiting for Mr. Green to arrive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 25 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So we WANT a delay? Based on those maps, I think so yes. If no delay, the streams will phase too soon and cut. Instead the lead NS wave can reinforce cold air while the second wave approaches The other end of the spectrum is the wave getting delayed so much that confluence leaves and its too warm by the time it gets here. But i think thats less likely because the ao/nao seem to be trending more negative in recent runs. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 FIrst time in 2 weeks im actually gonna look at 00z guidance, lets get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 30 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Based on those maps, I think so yes. If no delay, the streams will phase too soon and cut. Instead the lead NS wave can reinforce cold air while the second wave approaches The other end of the spectrum is the wave getting delayed so much that confluence leaves and its too warm by the time it gets here. But i think thats less likely because the ao/nao seem to be trending more negative in recent runs. Agree with this take. Phasing both streams is how we get back to Jan 25th but now without the insane cold to keep us from raining. Instead, allowing the first NS to go by gives us 1. a chance for a light event 2. cold air. Then whatever happens out west happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 WB 0Z NBM para. Something to watch over the next week...(east of mountains this is all from upcoming Friday onward.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 hours ago, bncho said: It’s a slop storm verbatim. Probably around 5-8:1 ratios. Temps are around 35-38 in the metros. Awe, may not get GFS storm. With the 2m temps, 850mb temps, it might as well be a rain maker. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 hours ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, 6 to 10 is light. @AlexD1990, come get your boy. Oh no sir. You got me fucked up. As the original Delaware poster, we disown him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 53 minutes ago, GreyHat said: Awe, may not get GFS storm. With the 2m temps, 850mb temps, it might as well be a rain maker. That is a lot of temp maps 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 That is a lot of temp mapsNothing like looking under the hood at every level’s temps 11 days out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 This will shock you, but the h5 GFS is different than 18z and prob won't look the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Our storm is gone so far, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 This model sucks 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Don't even look at it yall 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 This model sucksUnusable 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Don't even look at it yall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Don't even look at it yall What’s worse…no storm or another Carolina crusher in the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Ai gfs is in Canada so there's that too? Really no consistency for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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