February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

That would be painful, euro Ai and gfs Ai delay the wave so much we lose 50/50 influence. It almost cuts it off from the flow

@GreyHat thinks it’s light QPF, paltry at best.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Im trying to see my house behind that 19.8

It's right next to your outhouse with the half moon on the door.

[aldie 22]

Just now, mitchnick said:

It's right next to your outhouse with the half moon on the door.

I waited until they got indoor plumbing to move here 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

7 minutes ago, bncho said:

It’s a slop storm verbatim. Probably around 5-8:1 ratios. Temps are around 35-38 in the metros. 

That qpf distribution though during our prime climo…

[Chris78]

22 minutes ago, bncho said:

It’s a slop storm verbatim. Probably around 5-8:1 ratios. Temps are around 35-38 in the metros. 

Would be interesting to see what the ground effects would be with how cold it's been. Its going to warm up a little next week but it's literally a frozen tundra out there  right now.

Snowing at 34 degrees after the last few weeks should have a different effect than what we normally see around these parts. 

[winter_warlock]

33 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Im trying to see my house behind that 19.8

It won't look like that in a day lol

[Solution Man]

30 minutes ago, bncho said:

@GreyHat thinks it’s light QPF, paltry at best.

Don’t let me get started 

[psuhoffman]

The ai models aren’t meant for those details. Nothing is at this range frankly 

[Heisy]

Ahhh, why do I keep forgetting that.   Can we trade him for GreyHat?

I was focused on 95 SE hah

[Heisy]

The ai models aren’t meant for those details. Nothing is at this range frankly 

Yea def, only thing I would take away is the delay in the shortwave vs the OPs, but this thing is still really far out.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z AI EPS was basically a hold.  

[Heisy]

End of OP euro trended towards the Ai with delaying the wave. Would have been a vastly different solution vs its 12z run which was kind of on its own vs other guidance

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

End of OP euro trended towards the Ai with delaying the wave. Would have been a vastly different solution vs its 12z run which was kind of on its own vs other guidance

So we WANT a delay?

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So we WANT a delay?

Euro is waiting for Mr. Green to arrive 

[Terpeast]

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So we WANT a delay?

Based on those maps, I think so yes. If no delay, the streams will phase too soon and cut. Instead the lead NS wave can reinforce cold air while the second wave approaches

The other end of the spectrum is the wave getting delayed so much that confluence leaves and its too warm by the time it gets here. But i think thats less likely because the ao/nao seem to be trending more negative in recent runs. 

[Jake Wx]

FIrst time in 2 weeks im actually gonna look at 00z guidance, lets get it 

[SnowenOutThere]

30 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Based on those maps, I think so yes. If no delay, the streams will phase too soon and cut. Instead the lead NS wave can reinforce cold air while the second wave approaches

The other end of the spectrum is the wave getting delayed so much that confluence leaves and its too warm by the time it gets here. But i think thats less likely because the ao/nao seem to be trending more negative in recent runs. 

Agree with this take. Phasing both streams is how we get back to Jan 25th but now without the insane cold to keep us from raining. Instead, allowing the first NS to go by gives us 1. a chance for a light event 2. cold air. Then whatever happens out west happens. 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z NBM para.  Something to watch over the next week...(east of mountains this is all from upcoming Friday onward.)

[GreyHat]

2 hours ago, bncho said:

It’s a slop storm verbatim. Probably around 5-8:1 ratios. Temps are around 35-38 in the metros. 

Awe, may not get GFS storm. With the 2m temps, 850mb temps, it might as well be a rain maker.

 

[AlexD1990]

4 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, 6 to 10 is light.

@AlexD1990, come get your boy.

Oh no sir. You got me fucked up.

As the original Delaware poster, we disown him.

[Interstate]

53 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Awe, may not get GFS storm. With the 2m temps, 850mb temps, it might as well be a rain maker.

 

That is a lot of temp maps

[jayyy]

That is a lot of temp maps

Nothing like looking under the hood at every level’s temps 11 days out

[stormtracker]

This will shock you, but the h5 GFS is different than 18z and prob won't look the same

[stormtracker]

Our storm is gone so far, lol

[stormtracker]

This model sucks

[stormtracker]

Don't even look at it yall

[Ji]

This model sucks

Unusable

[Solution Man]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Don't even look at it yall

[LP08]

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Don't even look at it yall

What’s worse…no storm or another Carolina crusher in the CMC

[Inudaw]

Ai gfs is in Canada so there's that too?    Really no consistency for anything.