Heisy Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 and were back.............................till the dr says noI put more stock into the GFS Ai vs the OP so this gives me a little hope. Been saying since yesterday this is a pretty simple setup. Could all go to crap, but I feel pretty confident with this.18z gfs backed up the western ridge, I bet it shows a strong event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 9 minutes ago, Heisy said: 18z gfs ai, this is almost the perfect mid Atlantic track Where's the precip map? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, stormtracker said: Where's the precip map? it’s not as pretty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 minutes ago, T. August said: it’s not as pretty Figured 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Figured It's still 5-10". 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, bncho said: It's still 5-10". Wait, what? And he called that not pretty??? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Verification scores coming in for ai-gfs and its ensembles, ai is doing better than their dynamic counterparts. But that’s not saying much. I’d say its middle of the pack on par with op euro and geps, with ai euro leading the pack. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Wait, what? And he called that not pretty??? It precipitates for like 48 hours with no panel getting over .1” lol. Yeah technically it is indeed half an inch of liquid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 After the GFS with this last storm, I will find it hard to believe for quite a long time. Trash model. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, T. August said: It precipitates for like 48 hours with no panel getting over .1” lol. Yeah technically it is indeed half an inch of liquid. In this famine, I'd take it 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, T. August said: It precipitates for like 48 hours with no panel getting over .1” lol. Yeah technically it is indeed half an inch of liquid. That seems to be an AI thing. I've been noticing that on a number of both AI runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That seems to be an AI thing. I've been noticing that on a number of both AI runs. Agreed… too much smoothing. Almost ensemble-esque 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 I know verbatim the gfs didn’t work out, but it did trend like the Ai, slowing down the wave and shifting ridge W. If this thing is going to come up the coast that’s a good way to start so I’ll take it as a positive overall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Agreed… too much smoothing. Almost ensemble-esqueThe Ai models shouldn’t really be used for QPF for this reason. H5? Different story. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 15 minutes ago, T. August said: It precipitates for like 48 hours with no panel getting over .1” lol. Yeah technically it is indeed half an inch of liquid. AI models don't do particularly well with QPF. They get a general shape of the field but struggle to resolve amounts and detail. I'd focus far more on 500 heights and SLP. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 The drought returns for the next 15 days according to the latest GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 51 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Where's the precip map? Well, lets just say that isn't even close to perfect for the MA. He gets over excited anytime he sees a piece of digging vorticity, regardless of its orientation or location, or whether its sharp or a lobe that wont do anything at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 30 Author Share Posted January 30 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Well, lets just say that isn't even close to perfect for the MA. He gets over excited anytime he sees a piece of digging vorticity, regardless of its orientation or location, or whether its sharp or a lobe that wont do anything at the surface. Not being critical but asking, would you want an intense lobe back about 200 miles over KY/ TN moving eastward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 I don't look at the AI models very often, and I don't think I am missing anything very insightful most of the time. Mostly seems like a desperation thing when the physics based models aren't advertising what we want. They aren't quite there yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Not being critical but asking, would you want an intense lobe back about 200 miles over KY/ TN moving eastward? Not a broad lobe, but a sharp shortwave that is neutral/ going negative, well sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 hours ago, Fozz said: That’s because 2013-14 (especially early on) was very frustrating for the immediate metros while those who live N/W kept getting buried. Hmmm, I don’t remember it like that and I lived right on 95. I remember it being freezing cold and constant overperforming storms and nonstop tracking. The big storm in February was the only disappointing part because areas NW got almost two feet of snow while I got maybe a foot that compacted and melted to like four inches by the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Wait, what? And he called that not pretty??? The expectation is to see 20+ inch snow total maps across a wide swath of the DMV in some minds lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 30 Author Share Posted January 30 WB 18Z AI EURO came North with midweek threat compared to 12Z. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 I don't look at the AI models very often, and I don't think I am missing anything very insightful most of the time. Mostly seems like a desperation thing when the physics based models aren't advertising what we want. They aren't quite there yet.Might be overdoing the praise for the AIFS in some cases but its pretty darn compelling, imo. At least equal to the EURO in terms of midrange synoptics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 AIFS much better. Where is @stormtracker to unpanic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 12 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z AI EURO came North with midweek threat compared to 12Z. Give me 25-40 miles north and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 So AI jumps north from 12z with Wednesday threat and the plays the disappearing act with the 4-6" event it had for next weekend. So much for the notion of AI being consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Remember when everyone was calling this threat dead at 12z. Good times. Seriously though we gotta see how our current failure plays out to know what this one will do so we got at least two more days of model swinging. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, high risk said: AI models don't do particularly well with QPF. They get a general shape of the field but struggle to resolve amounts and detail. I'd focus far more on 500 heights and SLP. 34 minutes ago, mitchnick said: So AI jumps north from 12z with Wednesday threat and the plays the disappearing act with the 4-6" event it had for next weekend. So much for the notion of AI being consistent. AIFS has done particularly well with verification on the lower end of QPF distribution (<= 0.25") and has a good indication of the coverage within those bounds. It still struggles with higher QPF allotments, especially anything with convective backgrounds. Might get the areal extent of the "where" right, but magnitude is going to struggle. This has been the case for the past few years of evaluations. Totally agree with the SLP and 5H outputs being the areas it does the best with. I have noticed it tends to waver outside the D5 window, which is the case with next weeks system as well, but it will slowly move and hold firm between the D3-5 window before usually settling within the bounds of a solution. Atmospheric complexities are still prevalent within the grand scheme and the AI models will still be subject to variability at leads due to the complex variables at hand. They are a useful tool and one that helps aid in medium and short range forecasting. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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