January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage OBS Thread!

[DDweatherman]

Having map issues at the moment, so I'll give point forecast and ranges, I feel there will be a tight gradient on this one and the mix line will push north up through DC relatively quick but not all the way to PA with that much vigor. 

DC: 4-6" (closer to 6 in NW DC) 

Annapolis: 4-6"

Baltimore: 6-8"

Frederick: 7-10" 

Westminster: 7-10"

Bel Air: 7-10" 

Winchester: 7-10" 

Hagerstown: 9-13" (right on the border of 7-10/9-13) 

York: 9-13"  

Gettysburg: 9-13"

 

 

[Weather Will]

WB OZ HRRR: By 2pm, sleet everywhere but far NW MD, and rain SE of DC.

[clskinsfan]

The soundings for the couple hours before we flip are nuts. Literal baseballs are gonna be falling for a while tomorrow morning. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

The soundings for the couple hours before we flip are nuts. Literal baseballs are gonna be falling for a while tomorrow morning. 

Huge DGZ for us. 

[midatlanticweather]

15.1 dp is still -3

Humidity ticked up 3% in the last hour to 43%

 

 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I literally laughed my ass off. You are gonna get your 6 inch storm brother. It is happening. 

The ring around the moon- its proven bigtime snow is on the way when you see that. 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

If the current conditions persist I can make up some ground quick.  High ratio stuff falling right now and I lost another degree and down to 15. I'm honestly surprised with both. I figured my yard would underperform in both categories. Snow growth at the beginning was terrible. I think salt has a higher ratio lol. 

Can you share how this continues on and your perceptions of outcome versus a variety of expectations developed from today and even 3 days back? 

[Kay]

28 minutes ago, bncho said:

can you show soil temps?

Here's the site to explore! 

https://mesonet.umd.edu/index.html

[Rhino16]

Guess I’m staying up until 1 or 2 since it will flip by 4am here. Nothing falling on the drive home.

[WEATHER53]

Another possible undiscussed  interest is that since it’s not warm air aloft at the start, the -5 dews and 20F temps might have a good evap meeting 

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

The soundings for the couple hours before we flip are nuts. Literal baseballs are gonna be falling for a while tomorrow morning. 

NW crew should like trends. Not even looking at Model or Kuchera ratios, QPF is between 0.65 to 1.1 inches prior to flip. Average and NBM put Winchester through Berkeley/Jefferson Counties in WV around 0.75-0.9” of precip with a vast majority falling between 11-18z. Ratios will be very high overnight and slowly fall after 11z, but still easily 13-16:1 throughout most of the event. Unless NAM’s win on thermal progression (they could), I think 7-10” is very plausible at the low end with 10-14” very much in the range if the rates come to fruition. 

[GreyHat]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB OZ HRRR: By 2pm, sleet everywhere but far NW MD, and rain SE of DC.

Wow look at that rain. Dam there is going to be some serious ice when that freezes as the storm passes 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

NW crew should like trends. Not even looking at Model or Kuchera ratios, QPF is between 0.65 to 1.1 inches prior to flip. Average and NBM put Winchester through Berkeley/Jefferson Counties in WV around 0.75-0.9” of precip with a vast majority falling between 11-18z. Ratios will be very high overnight and slowly fall after 11z, but still easily 13-16:1 throughout most of the event. Unless NAM’s win on thermal progression (they could), I think 7-10” is very plausible at the low end with 10-14” very much in the range if the rates come to fruition. 

Don't you dare talk that dirty talk to me friend  Where did you decide on setting up? 

[EastCoast NPZ]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The soundings for the couple hours before we flip are nuts. Literal baseballs are gonna be falling for a while tomorrow morning. 

Neat trivia.... largest snowflake ever recorded is 15" in width, observed in Fort Keough, MT, in 1887.  I want those.  I bet those were some incredible ratios!

[bncho]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

NW crew should like trends. Not even looking at Model or Kuchera ratios, QPF is between 0.65 to 1.1 inches prior to flip. Average and NBM put Winchester through Berkeley/Jefferson Counties in WV around 0.75-0.9” of precip with a vast majority falling between 11-18z. Ratios will be very high overnight and slowly fall after 11z, but still easily 13-16:1 throughout most of the event. Unless NAM’s win on thermal progression (they could), I think 7-10” is very plausible at the low end with 10-14” very much in the range if the rates come to fruition. 

Wow! That's super bullish!

[T. August]

12 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Qpf trend on hrrr before the flip is not good. 

Bro… DC area gets 6-7” at 10:1 then 3” of sleet. That’s legit.

[Random Chaos]

IAD Soundin

[understudyhero]

Just now, GreyHat said:

Wow look at that rain. Dam there is going to be some serious ice when that freezes as the storm passes 

Is that rain or freezing rain, how do you tell the difference without looking at a sounding?

[Wxtrix]

15 minutes ago, Demeter said:

I don’t feel so bad having my real tree still up lol. My cats love it and I keep it up as long as possible. 

we have a fake one and ours is still up. Christmas used to end at Candlemas after all (Feb 2).

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Don't you dare talk that dirty talk to me friend  Where did you decide on setting up? 

Chilling 6 miles east of MBG, between there and Shepardstown! Southern Berkeley county. Good spot imo for this one 

[MountainGeek]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

NW crew should like trends. Not even looking at Model or Kuchera ratios, QPF is between 0.65 to 1.1 inches prior to flip. Average and NBM put Winchester through Berkeley/Jefferson Counties in WV around 0.75-0.9” of precip with a vast majority falling between 11-18z. Ratios will be very high overnight and slowly fall after 11z, but still easily 13-16:1 throughout most of the event. Unless NAM’s win on thermal progression (they could), I think 7-10” is very plausible at the low end with 10-14” very much in the range if the rates come to fruition. 

Super-happy you found a place to chase -- welcome to WV.  

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Wow! That's super bullish!

That’s actually model output my friend!! Ratios out here average 11-12:1 on a normal setup. Welcome to the great NW (Crew) lol  

[Nomz]

Final call pre precip in DC, sticking with the 6-10" (including sleet) forecast that I've had since Thursday AM. Unfortunately, staying conservative was the right move.

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, MountainGeek said:

Super-happy you found a place to chase -- welcome to WV.  

Beautiful out here! I wouldn’t mind living in the Panhandle. Long commute, but man! It’s so pretty 

[GreyHat]

18F/-3

Winds ENE 7

Humidity 51 as it starts to climb

Pressure  30.46

Samuel Adams on duty 

[uncletim]

18/-6 at the bottom of the Grand Canyon of the Rock Creek. My dp seems low compared to other stations reporting nearby. Most are reporting -1 or -2. Similar temps though.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Chilling 6 miles east of MBG, between there and Shepardstown! Southern Berkeley county. Good spot imo for this one 

Great spot indeed, similar zone to my yard. I had us basically at the border of 7-11 & 9-13, so our calls line up well. Definitely has some boom potential if we get the QPF outputs of the 18z suite. 

[IronTy]

17 minutes ago, Demeter said:

I don’t feel so bad having my real tree still up lol. My cats love it and I keep it up as long as possible. 

I was gonna take it down this trip up here but I think I'll wait til the end of February.  Goes well with the snow.  

[EastCoast NPZ]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Chilling 6 miles east of MBG, between there and Shepardstown! Southern Berkeley county. Good spot imo for this one 

Post pics!

[Weather Will]

WB OZ HRRR