DDweatherman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Having map issues at the moment, so I'll give point forecast and ranges, I feel there will be a tight gradient on this one and the mix line will push north up through DC relatively quick but not all the way to PA with that much vigor. DC: 4-6" (closer to 6 in NW DC) Annapolis: 4-6" Baltimore: 6-8" Frederick: 7-10" Westminster: 7-10" Bel Air: 7-10" Winchester: 7-10" Hagerstown: 9-13" (right on the border of 7-10/9-13) York: 9-13" Gettysburg: 9-13" 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 WB OZ HRRR: By 2pm, sleet everywhere but far NW MD, and rain SE of DC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 The soundings for the couple hours before we flip are nuts. Literal baseballs are gonna be falling for a while tomorrow morning. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, clskinsfan said: The soundings for the couple hours before we flip are nuts. Literal baseballs are gonna be falling for a while tomorrow morning. Huge DGZ for us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 15.1 dp is still -3 Humidity ticked up 3% in the last hour to 43% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I literally laughed my ass off. You are gonna get your 6 inch storm brother. It is happening. The ring around the moon- its proven bigtime snow is on the way when you see that. 4 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: If the current conditions persist I can make up some ground quick. High ratio stuff falling right now and I lost another degree and down to 15. I'm honestly surprised with both. I figured my yard would underperform in both categories. Snow growth at the beginning was terrible. I think salt has a higher ratio lol. Can you share how this continues on and your perceptions of outcome versus a variety of expectations developed from today and even 3 days back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 28 minutes ago, bncho said: can you show soil temps? Here's the site to explore! https://mesonet.umd.edu/index.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Guess I’m staying up until 1 or 2 since it will flip by 4am here. Nothing falling on the drive home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Another possible undiscussed interest is that since it’s not warm air aloft at the start, the -5 dews and 20F temps might have a good evap meeting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: The soundings for the couple hours before we flip are nuts. Literal baseballs are gonna be falling for a while tomorrow morning. NW crew should like trends. Not even looking at Model or Kuchera ratios, QPF is between 0.65 to 1.1 inches prior to flip. Average and NBM put Winchester through Berkeley/Jefferson Counties in WV around 0.75-0.9” of precip with a vast majority falling between 11-18z. Ratios will be very high overnight and slowly fall after 11z, but still easily 13-16:1 throughout most of the event. Unless NAM’s win on thermal progression (they could), I think 7-10” is very plausible at the low end with 10-14” very much in the range if the rates come to fruition. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB OZ HRRR: By 2pm, sleet everywhere but far NW MD, and rain SE of DC. Wow look at that rain. Dam there is going to be some serious ice when that freezes as the storm passes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, MillvilleWx said: NW crew should like trends. Not even looking at Model or Kuchera ratios, QPF is between 0.65 to 1.1 inches prior to flip. Average and NBM put Winchester through Berkeley/Jefferson Counties in WV around 0.75-0.9” of precip with a vast majority falling between 11-18z. Ratios will be very high overnight and slowly fall after 11z, but still easily 13-16:1 throughout most of the event. Unless NAM’s win on thermal progression (they could), I think 7-10” is very plausible at the low end with 10-14” very much in the range if the rates come to fruition. Don't you dare talk that dirty talk to me friend Where did you decide on setting up? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The soundings for the couple hours before we flip are nuts. Literal baseballs are gonna be falling for a while tomorrow morning. Neat trivia.... largest snowflake ever recorded is 15" in width, observed in Fort Keough, MT, in 1887. I want those. I bet those were some incredible ratios! 3 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, MillvilleWx said: NW crew should like trends. Not even looking at Model or Kuchera ratios, QPF is between 0.65 to 1.1 inches prior to flip. Average and NBM put Winchester through Berkeley/Jefferson Counties in WV around 0.75-0.9” of precip with a vast majority falling between 11-18z. Ratios will be very high overnight and slowly fall after 11z, but still easily 13-16:1 throughout most of the event. Unless NAM’s win on thermal progression (they could), I think 7-10” is very plausible at the low end with 10-14” very much in the range if the rates come to fruition. Wow! That's super bullish! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 12 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Qpf trend on hrrr before the flip is not good. Bro… DC area gets 6-7” at 10:1 then 3” of sleet. That’s legit. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 IAD Soundin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
understudyhero Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, GreyHat said: Wow look at that rain. Dam there is going to be some serious ice when that freezes as the storm passes Is that rain or freezing rain, how do you tell the difference without looking at a sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 15 minutes ago, Demeter said: I don’t feel so bad having my real tree still up lol. My cats love it and I keep it up as long as possible. we have a fake one and ours is still up. Christmas used to end at Candlemas after all (Feb 2). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, DDweatherman said: Don't you dare talk that dirty talk to me friend Where did you decide on setting up? Chilling 6 miles east of MBG, between there and Shepardstown! Southern Berkeley county. Good spot imo for this one 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: NW crew should like trends. Not even looking at Model or Kuchera ratios, QPF is between 0.65 to 1.1 inches prior to flip. Average and NBM put Winchester through Berkeley/Jefferson Counties in WV around 0.75-0.9” of precip with a vast majority falling between 11-18z. Ratios will be very high overnight and slowly fall after 11z, but still easily 13-16:1 throughout most of the event. Unless NAM’s win on thermal progression (they could), I think 7-10” is very plausible at the low end with 10-14” very much in the range if the rates come to fruition. Super-happy you found a place to chase -- welcome to WV. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, bncho said: Wow! That's super bullish! That’s actually model output my friend!! Ratios out here average 11-12:1 on a normal setup. Welcome to the great NW (Crew) lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Final call pre precip in DC, sticking with the 6-10" (including sleet) forecast that I've had since Thursday AM. Unfortunately, staying conservative was the right move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, MountainGeek said: Super-happy you found a place to chase -- welcome to WV. Beautiful out here! I wouldn’t mind living in the Panhandle. Long commute, but man! It’s so pretty 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 18F/-3 Winds ENE 7 Humidity 51 as it starts to climb Pressure 30.46 Samuel Adams on duty 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncletim Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 18/-6 at the bottom of the Grand Canyon of the Rock Creek. My dp seems low compared to other stations reporting nearby. Most are reporting -1 or -2. Similar temps though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Chilling 6 miles east of MBG, between there and Shepardstown! Southern Berkeley county. Good spot imo for this one Great spot indeed, similar zone to my yard. I had us basically at the border of 7-11 & 9-13, so our calls line up well. Definitely has some boom potential if we get the QPF outputs of the 18z suite. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 17 minutes ago, Demeter said: I don’t feel so bad having my real tree still up lol. My cats love it and I keep it up as long as possible. I was gonna take it down this trip up here but I think I'll wait til the end of February. Goes well with the snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Chilling 6 miles east of MBG, between there and Shepardstown! Southern Berkeley county. Good spot imo for this one Post pics! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 WB OZ HRRR 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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