Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

My call before the flip-over:
Southern MD & Eastern Shore: 6-10"
I-95 Corridor: 8-12"
Parr's Ridge and NW: 10-14"
Allegany & Garrett: 12-16" (Unlikely to Flip)

The way you been talking the last 12hour I thought I was getting 2" lol

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I cannot wait to see the snow depth map from this event on the mesonet website.

I cant wait to see the satellite images of the country on Monday. A 2000 mile swath of white is coming to the country. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z para

[wxmeddler]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

To me, this does look like freezing rain at 00z Monday but someone much smarter could correct me.

That would be FZRA. A "rule of thumb" is if you integrate the area above 0c vs below 0c and compare the "area". If Above 0C > Below 0C then FZRA. 

[clskinsfan]

I dont know what the NSSL MPAS HTPO model is. But I am in love with it. 

[mikeg0305]

That would be FZRA. A "rule of thumb" is if you integrate the area above 0c vs below 0c and compare the "area". If Above 0C > Below 0C then FZRA. 

Well then what does sleet look like?

[wxmeddler]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

The way you been talking the last 12hour I thought I was getting 2" lol

?? Last time I posted prior to that one was last night.

 

Anyway. I'm still very much concerned about the sleet. I've been fairly adamant  / confident that the sleet line would make it to the M/D Line. Still expecting a major sleet fest come Sunday Mid-Morning lasting through evening. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

?? Last time I posted prior to that one was last night.

 

Anyway. I'm still very much concerned about the sleet. I've been fairly adamant  / confident that the sleet line would make it to the M/D Line. Still expecting a major sleet fest come Sunday Mid-Morning lasting through evening. 

Ok last 2 days haha. I am just messing with you. I was not expecting you to got that high for me. 

[SnowenOutThere]

@bncho @Maestrobjwa @baltosquid @flanvil 

Hi guys! I made a video going over some basic atmospheric principles from Atmospheric thickness/geopotential height to divergence/convergence aloft based on super/sub geostrophic wind balance. Hopefully it can help out some people trying to learn more about this storm/atmospheric setups! I do apologize as I haven't done anything like this before so its a bit rough but hopefully helpful regardless. Let me know if anyone wants a video applying these topics to a real world example. 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I dont know what the NSSL MPAS HTPO model is. But I am in love with it. 

Looks like the gfs only the CAM version 

[wxmeddler]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ok last 2 days haha. I am just messing with you. I was not expecting you to got that high for me. 

I can go lower if u want.. 

Trend last 12 hours seems fairly clear that the cold front is over-performing a bit. Not too surprising, but even an hour or three of extra CAD really bumps the totals up when you're dealing with up to 2" hr rates.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ok last 2 days haha. I am just messing with you. I was not expecting you to got that high for me. 

@wxmeddler I think bc you let us know about the Dr U convo you were gonna be low. I sorta expected that too, unfairly. 

[aldie 22]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z para

This is a nice storm for a lot of people let's wrap it up

[katabatic]

31 minutes ago, H2O said:

There is something to be said about how once cold air gets anchored it can overperform.  

And there is a lot of it! Hi this morning was 28 and it's now 11 imby (was 18 around 5:30). 

[stormtracker]

53 minutes ago, H2O said:

If I get 8” snow/sleet we meeting up for quiche and white wine in DC

 

6:30 obs- 40.5/11.5 and windy. The cold has arrived. 

You white as hell

[Interstate]

Throw the RAP out 

[jayyy]

Throw the RAP out 

Which one lol

[wxmeddler]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@wxmeddler I think bc you let us know about the Dr U convo you were gonna be low. I sorta expected that too, unfairly. 

Louis was nervous about the inland sfc low tracking to Cleveland. I was never that far-out but I was very much on the "850 Low to the OHV" Train, which... ya know.

[Eskimo Joe]

Sub-zero dew points coming into western MD. Cold, dry air.

[SnowenOutThere]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Looks like the gfs only the CAM version 

I'm more partial to the GSL MPAS-G which is still finishing its 12z run

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

Louis was nervous about the inland sfc low tracking to Cleveland. I was never that far-out but I was very much on the "850 Low to the OHV" Train, which... ya know.

Cool to see how it exactly follows the thermal gradient. 

[midatlanticweather]

28.9 and dropping steadily. DP 6

[wxmeddler]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Cool to see how it exactly follows the thermal gradient. 

Trust the Synoptics

[Bob Chill]

My yard will be a good barometer for my northern friends. Time spread for the models with my flip to sleet is as early as 1am or as late as 7am (as it stands right now). Onset right around 6pm or so. Range of snow amounts before the flip is 3-7". If I'm awake lol I'll post my snow totals and flip time. 

My gut guess is 4-5" of snow, 2-3" of sleet, and .25zr. Anything less than 3" of snow would be a bar buster but 3" or more of sleet would make up for it lol

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

My yard will be a good barometer for my northern friends. Time spread for the models with my flip to sleet is as early as 1am or as late as 7am (as it stands right now). Onset right around 6pm or so. Range of snow amounts before the flip is 3-7". If I'm awake lol I'll post my snow totals and flip time. 

My gut guess is 4-5" of snow, 2-3" of sleet, and .25zr. Anything less than 3" of snow would be a bar buster but 3" or more of sleet would make up for it lol

Hope you boom, Bob. We're all counting on you.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

My yard will be a good barometer for my northern friends. Time spread for the models with my flip to sleet is as early as 1am or as late as 7am (as it stands right now). Onset right around 6pm or so. Range of snow amounts before the flip is 3-7". If I'm awake lol I'll post my snow totals and flip time. 

My gut guess is 4-5" of snow, 2-3" of sleet, and .25zr. Anything less than 3" of snow would be a bar buster but 3" or more of sleet would make up for it lol

I'll be the poster up next after you (if I don't go back to NOVA). My guess is 5-9" of snow 1-3" sleet and 0-.3" freezing rain. Considering driving back up but man I have no idea when the roads will be decent besides I think my home up there has a forecast of 7-11" snow 1-2" sleet and maybe a bit of freezing rain which isn't a huge difference. 

[katabatic]

30 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

My call before the flip-over:
Southern MD & Eastern Shore: 6-10"
I-95 Corridor: 8-12"
Parr's Ridge and NW: 10-14"
Allegany & Garrett: 12-16" (Unlikely to Flip)

I'm hoping you're expertise is spot on because I think I'm going to flip for a while as the primary knocks on my door (I'm in Oakland, MD, west of the Allegheny Front). This is my 4th winter and  the first time people have panicked shopped - the Oakland Wal-Mart is sold out of quite a bit of fresh/frozen foods. We get 10-11 inch snowfalls (what the NWS has as our forecast) on a fairly regular basis so I guess the hype is simply contagious. Other than the hype, for us, this storm is honestly nbd.

[pazzo83]

37 minutes ago, nj2va said:

For sure, here’s our Deep Creek temp.  Down to 8 degrees.

Hey Siri, when did the front come through? 

[Roger Smith]

It has begun -- moderate snow at Dodge City KS, temp zero F. Moderate sleet near Wichita Falls TX, temp 27 F.

My current take is very sharp snowfall cutoff close to I-95, hope I am wrong by 25-50 miles (south) but somewhere in that general area, gradients of 2 or 3 inches total snowfall every 10 miles until you reach an all-snow zone something like Frederick to York to Allentown. North of that, 12-16 local 20. 

So across DC region, it could be 8" south to 12" north, or just as easily 4" to 8". I will go with median values there and say 6" near DCA and 10" near IAD. Around 8-10" BWI to 12-15" Westminster. 

Would love to see this verify along GFS lines instead but often, the result of model disparity and model range is a weighted consensus. If the ECM stays near average of GFS and NAM output, then it will most likely do better than both of them. 

Should be a very impactful storm regardless of details. Expect thunder-snow or sleet mid-afternoon Sunday about when coastal begins to deepen. 

[wxmeddler]

6 minutes ago, katabatic said:

I'm hoping you're expertise is spot on because I think I'm going to flip for a while as the primary knocks on my door (I'm in Oakland, MD, west of the Allegheny Front). This is my 4th winter and  the first time people have panicked shopped - the Oakland Wal-Mart is sold out of quite a bit of fresh/frozen foods. We get 10-11 inch snowfalls (what the NWS has as our forecast) on a fairly regular basis so I guess the hype is simply contagious. Other than the hype, for us, this storm is honestly nbd.

Yeah, it will be interesting for you. Redhouse will likely switch over. Good news is that if it does flip over, it will be towards the end and 90% of your precip will have already fallen as Snow.