Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[grhqofb5]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

HRRR likes the idea the possibility of some thundersnow (and then thundersleet) right before the changeover.

Gotta love this. What are chances that a weather model is going to be able to identify a 15 mile wide strip of land where “thundersnow” will occur 36 hours before a storm starts?

[SnowenOutThere]

53 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is a snap shot of what I was talking about with the freezing rain sounding. This was near the beltway in PG county. You definitely don’t want this sounding to come to fruition. 
 

Icon for some reason is way way warmer in the mid levels than everyone else. I assume it’s just a thing it does? Even in Cvill most soundings show sleet besides it. 

35 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This might just be vibes but in my head I could make a compelling case the GEM suite has been the most consistent the last 48 hours. I feel like it shot things way north first but still always have DC-north a compelling 6-10” floor. Idk what 500mb looks like

CMC and RGEM have lead the way with this storm since Monday. We all laughed at the CMC mixing back then but lo and behold it was right! 

[snowfan]

This front is no joke.

Frederick: 41

State College: 16

Bradford, PA: 0

[konksw]

Maybe the GFS is just right?

[Solution Man]

Just now, snowfan said:

This front is no joke.

Frederick: 41

State College: 16

Bradford, PA: 0

[Eskimo Joe]

Mesonet stations out west showing temps really diving. Frostburg down to 20°, Bittinger down to 18°, with single digit wind chills.

[Wetbulbs88]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z 12K NAM and GFS showing the synoptic differences.  Hope GFS is correct.

This is utterly wild. 

[balltermen]

18 minutes ago, bncho said:

The GFS is 14" of snow + sleet for DC.

more like 10-12" using liquid for immediate DC metro.  we get dry slotted a bit  

.7 at 12:1

.7 at 3:1 

[MillvilleWx]

12 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

I think that's now the 8th run in a row of the GFS showing 18"+ (Kuchera) for the eastern panhandle of WV

This is correct. Wildly consistent

[Amped]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z 12K NAM and GFS showing the synoptic differences.  Hope GFS is correct.

Nam and gfs are both outliers in opposite ends of the spectrum. If you average them they cancel out and you get a decent solution.

[JenkinsJinkies]

18z and still no cave? Papers are going to be written about this…

[snowfan]

Out of the area but related to the cold air funneling in.....wind chills tmrw for KMWN are going to approach -90.

[mitchnick]

Longer range Rap currently updating is colder and wetter. Of course, there's the range issue, but it's better than warmer/dryer.

[balltermen]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

18z and still no cave? Papers are going to be written about this…

The GFS has trouble with east coast snowstorms. especially with a tricky northern stream 

Some people have drawn similarities to 2/12/14.  The GFS wasn't on board until like 12 hours out. 

Which is to say.  i think its too cold 

[Amped]

The rgem solution is what Im hoping for. You get a death band over I95 before the changeover. Thats our best hope getting higher totals to verify.

 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Longer range Rap currently updating is colder and wetter. Of course, there's the range issue, but it's better than warmer/dryer.

Purchase at your own risk.

[ChillinIt]

18z HRPS is a beatdown!!

[bncho]

1 minute ago, ChillinIt said:

18z HRPS is a beatdown!!

(there's more for baltimore north)

[ChillinIt]

[Solution Man]

Just now, bncho said:

That’s the end of run or precip

[Eskimo Joe]

Find the cold front!

[MillvilleWx]

Internal model snow ratio map is even better than Kuchera. It’s very hefty with the front end thump. Wish it wasn’t at range, but something we’ll be monitoring is the QPF distribution on guidance to the lead up. If they stay juiced, that will be a major plus for snowfall and beating back the mixing line due to evaporative cooling in the layer between 850-700mb. 

[NorthArlington101]

Internal model snow ratio map is even better than Kuchera. It’s very hefty with the front end thump. Wish it wasn’t at range, but something we’ll be monitoring is the QPF distribution on guidance to the lead up. If they stay juiced, that will be a major plus for snowfall and beating back the mixing line due to evaporative cooling in the layer between 850-700mb. 

LWX practically states this in their disco but assuming that their better access to internal snow model ratios is part of the reason they are perhaps more aggressive than some of us think they should be? Fairly “simple” boom scenario compared to 10:1 maps of initially really strong ratios, heavy WAA precip, and a slightly too aggressive warm nose? Realize that’s all a lot to ask for

[clskinsfan]

GFS is stubborn as my father in law. 

Temps dropping like a rock out here. Already down to 33.

[WEATHER53]

45 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Was gonna say you could argue a sliiiightly faster flip. But all in all you have to call it a hold. 

To me its6-11” by 10am Sunday 

[Eskimo Joe]

Cold means business. This is what happens when you advect arctic air over frozen Great Lakes and ground. Minimal airmass modification.

[Solution Man]

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Purchase at your own risk.

Not saying it’s right but the range thing isn’t why because it does things that lead to this result in just 24 hours. Now the it sucks issue might be why. 

[mitchnick]

Ukie 18z. It is over at this point.

[T. August]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie 18z. It is over at this point.

I imagine that’s worse? but didn’t see 12z