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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!


SnowenOutThere
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4 minutes ago, H2O said:

It just brought a tear to my eye. Like watching a baby bird leave the nest, a baby walk for the first time, a driver use their turn signal. 

lol I can be cool too 

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The huge question this morning is, how much warming aloft on Sunday.

The EURO is off the wall with possibilities for Augusta County.  The Euro deterministic gives me 9.8" of snow, .89" of freezing rain and 1.5" of sleet.  I simply don't believe that as it has no support with upper level thermals from the EPS, AI or AI ens. The AI ens. gives me 15.7" of snow with 850 temperatures at least 5 degrees colder...  .89" freezing rain is hugely inflated over all other models that indicate zr amounts.

12z will be interesting. 

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17 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Time to go plant this bad boy in the yard

Screenshot_20260122_075417_Photos.jpg

Mine is good for 3 feet, but there’s room for more if needed.  
The solar light on top was an addition this year.  Good for seeing depth at night from the window.

IMG_4114.thumb.jpeg.dbf8784ed297f1808be6e2bd9710cfa0.jpeg

 

 

 

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With the watches going up overnight it hit me this morning that this is the first real biting storm with both of the girls not here. One in Southern PA on campus and the other in DC off campus. My mom mind kicked in and have been talking with both of them this morning about what to have on hand. Rightfully so the DC kid brought up the possibility of loosing power. And for that matter I also told the PA kid that could be a possibility. 

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Got a solid 9hrs of sleep last night.  Woke up, ingested some coffee and am ready to track again.  Model trends this morning look good.  I'm leaving for DCL this evening with plans to drive back down from there to Calvert early Sunday morning.  I have a colonoscopy scheduled for Tuesday morning but that may end up getting canceled.  

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3 minutes ago, catoctin wx said:

Love this.  Just went to amazon to see if I could get a similar one quickly but none of them get here before Sunday :cry:

Justin Berk asked for my address and told me he was sending me an official Justin Berk snow stick because I sent him 4 days of LES chase video. Still waiting lol

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Just now, IronTy said:

Got a solid 9hrs of sleep last night.  Woke up, ingested some coffee and am ready to track again.  Model trends this morning look good.  I'm leaving for DCL this evening with plans to drive back down from there to Calvert early Sunday morning.  I have a colonoscopy scheduled for Tuesday morning but that may end up getting canceled.  

You're gonna drive clear across our subforum during the peak of this storm?  Driving in this area with 1 to 2 inch per hour snow rates is taking your life in your hands lol.  I don't trust anyone around here in snow to drive safely. 

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13 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said:

So, explain to this dum-dum lollipop here, how would we have freezing rain if ground temps are around 20? I understand warm air aloft and all, but wouldn't it still just become sleet at that point?

In other words, how the heck do we get that much freezing rain in the teens/low 20s?

It depends on the depth of the warm air aloft and how far it is from the surface.  

image.thumb.png.ec0424c04a456af9a27376dbc818b450.png

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16 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said:

So, explain to this dum-dum lollipop here, how would we have freezing rain if ground temps are around 20? I understand warm air aloft and all, but wouldn't it still just become sleet at that point?

In other words, how the heck do we get that much freezing rain in the teens/low 20s?

Freezing rain can definitely happen at those temps, but you need a crazy strong and shallow inversion aloft (I.e., very warm air just above the surface). We’ll see on Saturday what soundings look like. I think our area will mostly mix wirh sleet and maybe go to freezing drizzle at the end (which often happens as storms wind down and dry air starts moving in aloft).

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21 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said:

So, explain to this dum-dum lollipop here, how would we have freezing rain if ground temps are around 20? I understand warm air aloft and all, but wouldn't it still just become sleet at that point?

In other words, how the heck do we get that much freezing rain in the teens/low 20s?

In 1994 we had a devastating ice storm with 2 inches of solid ice.  At times, we had moderate rain and 18 degrees!  It was due to the cold layer being shallow enough for the rain to reach the ground as liquid despite such low surface temps.  I this upcoming storm, hopefully the cold layer is thick enough to freeze the raindrops into sleet!

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5 minutes ago, 2015Wrx said:

When will the main thread be locked down to storm mode? I learn a lot reading on here but it’s difficult scrolling through meaningless posts.


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Maybe after the 12z it will be started.  I'll get on my bat phone and call the powers that be.  Trust me, mods are trying to limit banter posts.  But a lot of y'all(not you) are a bunch of chatty mutherfuckers and can't show any self control with posting in the correct thread.

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Maybe after the 12z it will be started.  I'll get on my bat phone and call the powers that be.  Trust me, mods are trying to limit banter posts.  But a lot of y'all(not you) are a bunch of chatty mutherfuckers and can't show any self control with posting in the correct thread.

It’s all good, I appreciate the analysis and maps everyone provides. Also thanks to the Mods for doing everything they can. Here’s to a bunch more FOLKS the next days.


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