NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Wait, people are complaining about this run?!!? Jesus. I pray it happens. I'm just being realistic. GFS usually is a follower, not a leader.Post was in reference to a digital snow run that had 4” of sleet and not a lot of snow. 7 days ago that was an epic fantasy run. Now we’re all mad about it (not all, but ya know) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I will play devil's advocate to play into the hopium. Didn't they say those soundings that got added into last nights runs for the GFS would take a few model suites to fully recognize the pattern and new data that was injected into it? 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: not a lot of snow That Tuesday run they’re talking about had roughly 10” for the Baltimore area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Duca892 said: I will play devil's advocate to play into the hopium. Didn't they say those soundings that got added into last nights runs for the GFS would take a few model suites to fully recognize the pattern and new data that was injected into it? They said it started at 0z and hit full swing at 12z, so it’s in there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I was hoping to see some more consensus with either gfs caving to other guidance, or both sides meeting in the middle. But they could not be further apart. We may have to wait until 0z tonight to see where this is heading. Here's hoping EURO will cave in an hour.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 So at the 850 level, the rumblings of a cave might be there. Hr72. The closed 850 low at the 140 line is larger and a tick north. Low MSLP is broader up through the Appalachians as well, and the high to the north is splitting into two lobes. It looks like it really is close to going north but manages to kill the primary and transfer just in time. It also trended similarly from 06z to 12z. But it isn’t translating to a full cave yet. One or two more runs and it might finally stop killing the primary so nicely for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Weather Will said: Here's hoping EURO will cave in an hour.... Even if they met in the middle that would be a nice improvement 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Weather Will said: Here's hoping EURO will cave in an hour.... And not towards NAM/REGM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 From JB 5 Minutes ago: But a wild card here and maybe why the GFS MIGHT score a coup in the ne (was like PSU almost beating Indiana) is how cold the water is off the east coast. May retard warming a tad NJ north SST anomalies 1 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 column is borderline clean at 21z sunday...rates might matter a lot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 So GFS is showing both more total precipitation and less mixing than the euro? How much more qpf does it have than euro?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Well the UKMET definitely is not having what the GFS is having. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 GFS flirting with something again Thursday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, baltosquid said: So at the 850 level, the rumblings of a cave might be there. Hr72. The closed 850 low at the 140 line is larger and a tick north. Low MSLP is broader up through the Appalachians as well, and the high to the north is splitting into two lobes. It looks like it really is close to going north but manages to kill the primary and transfer just in time. It also trended similarly from 06z to 12z. But it isn’t translating to a full cave yet. One or two more runs and it might finally stop killing the primary so nicely for us. I don't know, I'm looking at West Virginia at 850 as a tell, and the area of above freezing 850s is consistent from 06z to 12z to 18z. I'd expect to see that area larger on the west side of the Apps if it were trending toward keeping a stronger 850 low. The timing is a bit off so you have to loop each of the runs rather than compare hour to hour. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 25 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS Good lord that's a lot of sleet in central Delaware, at least there seems to be no freezing rain. How up to date is the data being sampled by the players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I don't know, I'm looking at West Virginia at 850 as a tell, and the area of above freezing 850s is consistent from 06z to 12z to 18z. I'd expect to see that area larger on the west side of the Apps if it were trending toward keeping a stronger 850 low. The timing is a bit off so you have to loop each of the runs rather than compare hour to hour. I’m of course entirely happy if debunked, which is likely, for obvious reasons… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 ScreenRecording_01-22-2026 17-27-23_1.mov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bringmesnow1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, GreyHat said: Good lord that's a lot of sleet in central Delaware, at least there seems to be no freezing rain. How up to date is the data being sampled by the players. Well, it's 1.5" of sleet, so 0.5" qpf. But that could have easily been another 5-8" of snow down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 22 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It hasn't. It's strange because it's usually playing catchup and never leading the way. I expect a full cave tonight. One thing to consider- that's some hella impressible Arctic air that's gonna be in place, so the primary shouldn't push too far north before redevelopment off the coast, then its a question of is it more likely to have a tucked coastal low further north, or a tad more south/off the coast in a situation like this? A legit case could be made for the GFS- and we arent talking worlds apart here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 GEFS 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: GEFS Ens members getting more useless now they mostly will mirror their op leader 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 More interesting question for GEFS: are they following the Op with that progression? How many look like other guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: More interesting question for GEFS: are they following the Op with that progression? How many look like other guidance? Someone post the ind members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Well, the GFS is either going to score a coup or go down in flames. I'm guessing we already know. Play the game of spot the 850 low. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 24 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I was hoping to see some more consensus with either gfs caving to other guidance, or both sides meeting in the middle. But they could not be further apart. We may have to wait until 0z tonight to see where this is heading. I don't envy your job. It still comes down to "know your climo" in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: More interesting question for GEFS: are they following the Op with that progression? How many look like other guidance? 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Someone post the ind members Looks like a mix 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
300 square feet Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, clskinsfan said: I don't envy your job. It still comes down to "know your climo" in the end. I hate where this is headed. We all know the climo, and we know how it will pan out, but still, I’m hoping the GFS ends up victorious. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Ecmwf, Rgem and even the Nam usually handle warm air aloft better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 41 minutes ago, schinz said: So this is the question I ask myself. In the last 12 hours have all the other models started, in even the slightest way, to move towards the GFS, or has the GFS moved towards all the other models? I don't think the GFS has moved 10 miles N, S, E or W last 2 or 3 runs. If anything, the Euro has slipped maybe 50 miles south? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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