January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[NorthArlington101]

Wait, people are complaining about this run?!!?   Jesus.  I pray it happens.  I'm just being realistic.  GFS usually is a follower, not a leader.

Post was in reference to a digital snow run that had 4” of sleet and not a lot of snow. 7 days ago that was an epic fantasy run. Now we’re all mad about it (not all, but ya know)

[Alfoman]

[Duca892]

I will play devil's advocate to play into the hopium. Didn't they say those soundings that got added into last nights runs for the GFS would take a few model suites to fully recognize the pattern and new data that was injected into it? 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

not a lot of snow

That Tuesday run they’re talking about had roughly 10” for the Baltimore area. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Duca892 said:

I will play devil's advocate to play into the hopium. Didn't they say those soundings that got added into last nights runs for the GFS would take a few model suites to fully recognize the pattern and new data that was injected into it? 

They said it started at 0z and hit full swing at 12z, so it’s in there now.

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I was hoping to see some more consensus with either gfs caving to other guidance, or both sides meeting in the middle. 

But they could not be further apart. We may have to wait until 0z tonight to see where this is heading. 

Here's hoping EURO will cave in an hour....

[baltosquid]

So at the 850 level, the rumblings of a cave might be there. Hr72. The closed 850 low at the 140 line is larger and a tick north. Low MSLP is broader up through the Appalachians as well, and the high to the north is splitting into two lobes. It looks like it really is close to going north but manages to kill the primary and transfer just in time. It also trended similarly from 06z to 12z. But it isn’t translating to a full cave yet. One or two more runs and it might finally stop killing the primary so nicely for us. 

[Chris78]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Here's hoping EURO will cave in an hour....

Even if they met in the middle that would be a nice improvement 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Here's hoping EURO will cave in an hour....

And not towards NAM/REGM

[schinz]

From JB 5 Minutes ago:

 

But a wild card here and maybe why the GFS MIGHT score a coup in the ne (was like PSU almost beating Indiana) is how cold the water is off the east coast. May retard warming a tad NJ north

SST anomalies

[balltermen]

column is borderline clean at 21z sunday...rates might matter a lot

[Imgoinhungry]

So GFS is showing both more total precipitation and less mixing than the euro? How much more qpf does it have than euro?


.

[baltosquid]

Well the UKMET definitely is not having what the GFS is having.

[Shad]

GFS flirting with something again Thursday

[MN Transplant]

3 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

So at the 850 level, the rumblings of a cave might be there. Hr72. The closed 850 low at the 140 line is larger and a tick north. Low MSLP is broader up through the Appalachians as well, and the high to the north is splitting into two lobes. It looks like it really is close to going north but manages to kill the primary and transfer just in time. It also trended similarly from 06z to 12z. But it isn’t translating to a full cave yet. One or two more runs and it might finally stop killing the primary so nicely for us. 

I don't know, I'm looking at West Virginia at 850 as a tell, and the area of above freezing 850s is consistent from 06z to 12z to 18z.  I'd expect to see that area larger on the west side of the Apps if it were trending toward keeping a stronger 850 low.  The timing is a bit off so you have to loop each of the runs rather than compare hour to hour.

[GreyHat]

25 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS

 

 

 

 

Good lord that's a lot of sleet in central Delaware,  at least there seems to be no freezing rain.

How up to date is the data being sampled by the players.

[baltosquid]

5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I don't know, I'm looking at West Virginia at 850 as a tell, and the area of above freezing 850s is consistent from 06z to 12z to 18z.  I'd expect to see that area larger on the west side of the Apps if it were trending toward keeping a stronger 850 low.  The timing is a bit off so you have to loop each of the runs rather than compare hour to hour.

I’m of course entirely happy if debunked, which is likely, for obvious reasons… 

[WeatherGeek2025]

 

 

[bringmesnow1]

3 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Good lord that's a lot of sleet in central Delaware,  at least there seems to be no freezing rain.

How up to date is the data being sampled by the players.

Well, it's 1.5" of sleet, so 0.5" qpf.  But that could have easily been another 5-8" of snow down there.

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It hasn't.  It's strange because it's usually playing catchup and never leading the way.  I expect a full cave tonight.

One thing to consider- that's some hella impressible Arctic air that's gonna be in place, so the primary shouldn't push too far north before redevelopment off the coast, then its a question of is it more likely to have a tucked coastal low further north, or a tad more south/off the coast in a situation like this? A legit case could be made for the GFS- and we arent talking worlds apart here.

[StormyClearweather]

GEFS 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said:

GEFS 

Ens members getting more useless now they mostly will mirror their op leader 

[WxUSAF]

More interesting question for GEFS: are they following the Op with that progression? How many look like other guidance?

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

More interesting question for GEFS: are they following the Op with that progression? How many look like other guidance?

Someone post the ind members 

[MN Transplant]

Well, the GFS is either going to score a coup or go down in flames.  I'm guessing we already know.  Play the game of spot the 850 low.

[clskinsfan]

24 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I was hoping to see some more consensus with either gfs caving to other guidance, or both sides meeting in the middle. 

But they could not be further apart. We may have to wait until 0z tonight to see where this is heading. 

I don't envy your job. It still comes down to "know your climo" in the end. 

[MN Transplant]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

More interesting question for GEFS: are they following the Op with that progression? How many look like other guidance?

 

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Someone post the ind members 

Looks like a mix

[300 square feet]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

I don't envy your job. It still comes down to "know your climo" in the end. 

I hate where this is headed. We all know the climo, and we know how it will pan out, but still, I’m hoping the GFS ends up victorious.  

[Amped]

Ecmwf, Rgem and even the Nam usually handle warm air aloft better than the GFS.

[wxdude64]

41 minutes ago, schinz said:

So this is the question I ask myself.  In the last 12 hours have all the other models started, in even the slightest way, to move towards the GFS, or has the GFS moved towards all the other models?

 

I don't think the GFS has moved 10 miles N, S, E or W last 2 or 3 runs. If anything, the Euro has slipped maybe 50 miles south?