January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[mitchnick]

6z Ukie ensembles convinced they were too warm.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

6z Ukie ensembles convinced they were too warm.

Do we have access to the 6z operational run? 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

6z Ukie ensembles convinced they were too warm.

Jeez, these are gaudy.  Is this an artifact of questionable precip algorithm or does it think that much snow for real?

[TSSN+]

Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Do we have access to the 6z operational run? 

Only goes up to 66hrs 

[clskinsfan]

7 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

EC continues to support initial snow thoughts on where the heaviest will occur. I may have to adjust my 10” line further southeast, but there’s time! 
 

I need to make it out to the WV Panhandle for this thing. It looks immaculate out there for this one. Anyone want to take in a meteorologist? I’ll bring some booze @clskinsfan ?  

Come on out brother. Would love to have you! Do you know how to use a snow shovel?

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Do we have access to the 6z operational run? 

Here. Only goes out to 66hrs at 6z and 18z however.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&rh=2026012206&fh=66&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[jayyy]

We’re roughly 56-60 hours from first flakes on some models. Let’s reel this bad boy in today.

[TSSN+]

In 48hours we will be staring this storm in the face heading our way. I’m excited. 

[high risk]

37 minutes ago, anotherman said:

It's just a blend of ALL the models.  Not sure how accurate it is, but I do know it includes some of the models we always make fun of.

So, you don’t actually know that.    The winter part of the NBM at this range only includes the NAM, GFS and its ensembles, and the Euro and its ensembles.   The para includes some of the Canadian system as well. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Too early for this I know and the mesos will do better but the soundings for DCA on the Euro look like heavily rimed snow to me for a lot of Sunday when we're under pink, only later on Sunday is it a clear ice sounding.  

[mitchnick]

Looking at the 6z Ukie, it's a little cooler at 66hrs than 0z at 72hrs thanks to some better confluence. May be a tad slower. Cooler is probably likely since ensembles responded.

[high risk]

46 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Anyone know what the accuracy skill is of the NBM?

I could tell you what its Critical Success Index value for 24h snowfall at Day 3 is, but what would you do with that number?         For the most part, it’s as good as the inputs it uses, but the operational version right now is running high, because it’s bias correcting QPF upward based on a very limited sample of recent significant QPF events in the very dry Mid-Atlantic.  

[Curlyq]

Watching the The Weather Channel this morning (don't berate me for that) they said that planes (hurricane hunter type) are going to where the LP is off the coast of CA and also to the Gulf of America to collect high resolution data that will feed the models.  My question to you guru's is how might that information affect the models?

[jayyy]

Watching the The Weather Channel this morning (don't berate me for that) they said that planes (hurricane hunter type) are going to where the LP is off the coast of CA and also to the Gulf of America to collect high resolution data that will feed the models.  My question to you guru's is how might that information affect the models?

More snow, of course.

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

I could tell you what its Critical Success Index value for 24h snowfall at Day 3 is, but what would you do with that number?         For the most part, it’s as good as the inputs it uses, but the operational version right now is running high, because it’s bias correcting QPF upward based on a very limited sample of recent significant QPF events in the very dry Mid-Atlantic.  

When this monster winter is over i need you to give me some classes, damn i wish i knew a tenth of what you do. 

[coastal front]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Looking at the 6z Ukie, it's a little cooler at 66hrs than 0z at 72hrs thanks to some better confluence. May be a tad slower. Cooler is probably likely since ensembles responded.

I think that’s an incredible trend for a model that still produced really well. Looks like a delayed phase since the northern piece pushed east a bit as well as more confluence 

[Negnao]

Surprised nobody mentioned how amped the 6z nam and 9z srefs are. 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I wonder if euro is overdoing the micro-climates using a resolution that is too coarse for that purpose.

Yeah. I have a hard time believing we are going to hit negative teens out here. But does it really matter when your temps are near zero anyways? Brutal cold regardless. 

[jayyy]

Surprised nobody mentioned how amped the 6z nam and 9z srefs are. 

9z sref for a storm 60+ hours away is diabolical.

[TSSN+]

Just now, Negnao said:

Surprised nobody mentioned how amped the 6z nam and 9z srefs are. 

 Nam Is always amped at range. Had that coastal last week coming way way a few runs. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, Negnao said:

Surprised nobody mentioned how amped the 6z nam and 9z srefs are. 

It was discussed a few pages ago.

[IUsedToHateCold]

1 minute ago, Negnao said:

Surprised nobody mentioned how amped the 6z nam and 9z srefs are. 

It's the NAM outside of useful range. 
Today basically comes down to the Euro vs. GFS. GFS gives us more snow and Euro gives us more ice. 

I wouldn't bet on the GFS. 

[mappy]

Yall, enough going on about the name of a body of water in this thread 

[BiffMcmuscles]

Forgive my ignorance (I’m just a long time lurker) but will winds pick up towards the tail end? As much as I would love to see blizzard warnings, not in this scenario where there is so much ice potential. I know there was discussion earlier about this but haven’t seen anything about it recently. Is it safe to assume they will have limited impact?

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

It's the NAM outside of useful range. 
Today basically comes down to the Euro vs. GFS. GFS gives us more snow and Euro gives us more ice. 

I wouldn't bet on the GFS. 

I'd bet on a compromise. We all still win. Lots of snow follow by a mini ice age, followed by lake effect quality cold smoke on the tail. I feel like this is a mini blizzard of 96 here in the lowlands. 

[Paleocene]

7 minutes ago, Negnao said:

Surprised nobody mentioned how amped the 6z nam and 9z srefs are. 

NAM is always amped, that's what the A stands for. 

[Paleocene]

3 minutes ago, BiffMcmuscles said:

Forgive my ignorance (I’m just a long time lurker) but will winds pick up towards the tail end? As much as I would love to see blizzard warnings, not in this scenario where there is so much ice potential. I know there was discussion earlier about this but haven’t seen anything about it recently. Is it safe to assume they will have limited impact?

I was wondering about this too and haven't seen it discussed much. The models all give a wind output, you can check them. For example this panel shows wind *gusts* above the surface when the low is forming off the coast sunday evening. Pretty breezy, but IDK if this would verify blizzard in the metros.   Worse to the east.

[WxWatcher007]

14 minutes ago, Curlyq said:

Watching the The Weather Channel this morning (don't berate me for that) they said that planes (hurricane hunter type) are going to where the LP is off the coast of CA and also to the Gulf of America to collect high resolution data that will feed the models.  My question to you guru's is how might that information affect the models?

Hey there--resident tropical weenie here. 

Recon can incredibly useful, as it provides hard observations for areas that may not be sampled as well as they would be over the U.S., which in turn makes the initial conditions the models rely on to make their projections more accurate. 

So here, since they're sampling that Baja energy, it'll probably aid in more precisely projecting its intensity and speed. We're so close to the event that I doubt it makes a huge difference, but it just closes off one of the unknowns. 

Hope that helps. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

45 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Euro def trending to a longer storm like gfs. The front end remains the same but getting closer with the tail end stuff 

 

as depicted here this would be heavy sleet/frz rain, this would really do a number on the roads to finish off the storm. As others have alluded to would be really nice to trend this whole coastal south 50-100 miles and have this be powder.  

[Warm Nose]

8 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

I was wondering about this too and haven't seen it discussed much. The models all give a wind output, you can check them. For example this panel shows wind *gusts* above the surface when the low is forming off the coast sunday evening. Pretty breezy, but IDK if this would verify blizzard in the metros.   Worse to the east.

I was just going to bring this up. Blizzard criteria is one thing, but wind + ice is the dangerous thing here. Tree loss and power outages will increase exponentially the more ice and wind you get. This could be a disaster for RIC on South. Maybe even EZF if the ice starts to pile up.