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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2


mappy
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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Euro still has that warm nose at 700-850 gets up to me by Sunday afternoon 

Pretty wild the warm nose makes it to your neck of the woods. From what I remember you’re northernmost portion of the forum. 

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Pretty wild the warm nose makes it to your neck of the woods. From what I remember you’re northernmost portion of the forum. 

I am but due north of Baltimore so I usually flip, while those west of me don’t 

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Really glad to see the Euro held overnight and even ticked south. Seems like things are starting to solidify for I-95 for 6-12 inches depending on the mixing. Would take a drastic shift to go under 6 inches IMO. Freezing rain could make things ugly though. Especially since temps crash afterwards. Really hope the back end stuff on the GFS verifies. 

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3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

True glacier by Tuesday am; very rare to have extended cold after a snow storm.

IMG_7613.png

I wonder if euro is overdoing the micro-climates using a resolution that is too coarse for that purpose.

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2 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Really glad to see the Euro held overnight and even ticked south. Seems like things are starting to solidify for I-95 for 6-12 inches depending on the mixing. Would take a drastic shift to go under 6 inches IMO. Freezing rain could make things ugly though. Especially since temps crash afterwards. Really hope the back end stuff on the GFS verifies. 

With the sleet/ice, it will be a much higher impact than a pure 6-12" snowfall and remain that way for a good while due to temps afterward,

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1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said:

ptxKAZ6.png

Ice accretion NOT QPF

hopefully most of this is sleet, but if it's not, that's going to be absolutely crippling

Euro can’t display sleet correctly. A decent amount of the northern part of that zr is likely sleet. But still lot of zr coming for some in VA and NC. 

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1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Why’s the euros sleet output so bad? Model struggles at showing sleet. 

Wondering that too, poked around some Sim soundings in Hughesville and saw more of a sleet signal 

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5 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

We really need that back end to be IP instead of ZR. I don’t need an extended power outage. It’s going to be really bad South of I64. 

I’m really beginning to wonder though if the Euro is way overdoing it on the ZR potential? Maybe I end up being wrong but I feel a sleet fest inbound. 

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

06z GFS is a historic snowfall for many. Wow.

No doubt. Praying it is right but I know better. Just have to hope the Euro is wrong with the warm nose. Hopefully, the NAM can help us figuring TThat out as we get closer.

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