NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Snowing at NAM at 75. Mix line VA/NC border Still fine at 78. Mix line slowly pushing north, rates improving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Moderate snow at 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Precip looks like a 2 part deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Still fine at 78. Mix line slowly pushing north, rates improving Pummeled at 81 (or mod, if you want to be conservative about it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Thumping at 84...still all snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, stormtracker said: Surface maps don't look as bad as I thought so far.. About to get wrecked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 About 6” kuchera on the ground in DC by end of run with more to go. I’d lock it up now if I could 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Surface maps don't look as bad as I thought so far.. It’s lowkey good. Mix line actually stops advancing for a panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1041 HP over NY is big help. We get hammered up front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Terpeast said: The shaded colors illustrate it well. I think its an offset and they cancel each other out Yea I see several offsetting thing. Less amped phases STJ wave more a stronger NS vort. Slightly less confluence to our north but less ridging to our south and a slightly flatter flow heading in. There is more than one variable. Can’t make definitive conclusions based on what one variable does. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Snowing at NAM at 75. Mix line VA/NC border 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Still fine at 78. Mix line slowly pushing north, rates improving Looks like the sleet/mix line is in approximately the same area as it was at 18Z at the same time(s)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Nam lays down almost 8 inches with a more to come, wow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yea I see several offsetting thing. Less amped phases STJ wave more a stronger NS vort. Slightly less confluence to our north but less ridging to our south and a slightly flatter flow heading in. There is more than one variable. Can’t make definitive conclusions based on what one variable does. If we’re being honest with ourselves, the NAM is the solution we should all hope for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 WB 0Z 12K NAM at hr 84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: About 6” kuchera on the ground in DC by end of run with more to go. I’d lock it up now if I could Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Looks like its transferring off Wilmington, NC at H84? 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Southern vort slow to come out helps to keep it from going full phase on steroids and saves our butts. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I'll take the NAM and go to bed now happy. Looking forward to some dynamic changes with the injected data in the morning! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Absolute firehose just pumping in. Already at 1.07” by 84 hr mark with more to come. Unfortunately NAM wrecks us in the upper levels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Yeah would def take the NAM. Looks like it would have snowed for at least a few more hours and hard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Gimmme please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 From 75 to 84 the hp in NY doesnt move an inch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z 12K NAM at hr 84 Man that looks like a long duration event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea I see several offsetting thing. Less amped phases STJ wave more a stronger NS vort. Slightly less confluence to our north but less ridging to our south and a slightly flatter flow heading in. There is more than one variable. Can’t make definitive conclusions based on what one variable does. More upside with the latest NAM solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea I see several offsetting thing. Less amped phases STJ wave more a stronger NS vort. Slightly less confluence to our north but less ridging to our south and a slightly flatter flow heading in. There is more than one variable. Can’t make definitive conclusions based on what one variable does. Yep. Just wish we could get the less amped STJ wave without losing a bit of confluence which so far all runs have had happen at the same time. Either way Nam would be a sleet bomb and not a freezing rain bomb (for VA) which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Looks like its transferring off Wilmington, NC at H84? Yeah was looking at that, looks like it's popping a coastal and doesn't have a primary up in WV/PA. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 This is all snow north of about Henrico county ish 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just going through the memory bank of similar WAA-driven events, I recall how amped the NAM suite was for the Dec 16-17 2020 junction. Their first runs at range scoured out any cold air at 700/850mb well to the northeast, an extreme NW outlier. They were the first warning signs for that event, and while the other (less amped) guidance didn't completely cave to their long-range looks, they did conform to its depiction of warm quickly scouring out the relatively weak CAD signature. That makes me wonder if the 12k NAM isn't completely off its rocker with its current depiction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Imma leave this right here (0z vs 18z...stronger banana high and puts that TV low right in its place) 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Looks like its transferring off Wilmington, NC at H84? Unfortunately damage is probably done when it comes to mixing. I mean we have a closed 700mb low over Oklahoma! Though it is better than its 18z run no matter what. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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