January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Snowing at NAM at 75. Mix line VA/NC border 

Still fine at 78. Mix line slowly pushing north, rates improving 

[stormtracker]

Moderate snow at 81

[mitchnick]

Precip looks like a 2 part deal.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Still fine at 78. Mix line slowly pushing north, rates improving 

Pummeled at 81 (or mod, if you want to be conservative about it)

[stormtracker]

Thumping at 84...still all snow

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Surface maps don't look as bad as I thought so far..

About to get wrecked 

[NorthArlington101]

About 6” kuchera on the ground in DC by end of run with more to go. I’d lock it up now if I could 

[T. August]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Surface maps don't look as bad as I thought so far..

It’s lowkey good. Mix line actually stops advancing for a panel.

[clskinsfan]

1041 HP over NY is big help. We get hammered up front.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Terpeast said:

The shaded colors illustrate it well. I think its an offset and they cancel each other out

Yea I see several offsetting thing. Less amped phases STJ wave more a stronger NS vort. Slightly less confluence to our north but less ridging to our south and a slightly flatter flow heading in. There is more than one variable. Can’t make definitive conclusions based on what one variable does. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Snowing at NAM at 75. Mix line VA/NC border 

 

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Still fine at 78. Mix line slowly pushing north, rates improving 

Looks like the sleet/mix line is in approximately the same area as it was at 18Z at the same time(s)?

[Solution Man]

Nam lays down almost 8 inches with a more to come, wow

[Quasievil]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I see several offsetting thing. Less amped phases STJ wave more a stronger NS vort. Slightly less confluence to our north but less ridging to our south and a slightly flatter flow heading in. There is more than one variable. Can’t make definitive conclusions based on what one variable does. 

If we’re being honest with ourselves, the NAM is the solution we should all hope for. 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z 12K NAM at hr 84

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

About 6” kuchera on the ground in DC by end of run with more to go. I’d lock it up now if I could 

Yes

[nj2va]

Looks like its transferring off Wilmington, NC at H84?

[mitchnick]

Southern vort slow to come out helps to keep it from going full phase on steroids and saves our butts.

[IronTy]

I'll take the NAM and go to bed now happy.  Looking forward to some dynamic changes with the injected data in the morning!  

[Buddy1987]

Absolute firehose just pumping in. Already at 1.07” by 84 hr mark with more to come. Unfortunately NAM wrecks us in the upper levels. 

[baltosquid]

Yeah would def take the NAM. Looks like it would have snowed for at least a few more hours and hard.

[Solution Man]

Gimmme please

[Ralph Wiggum]

From 75 to 84 the hp in NY doesnt move an inch

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z 12K NAM at hr 84

Man that looks like a long duration event

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I see several offsetting thing. Less amped phases STJ wave more a stronger NS vort. Slightly less confluence to our north but less ridging to our south and a slightly flatter flow heading in. There is more than one variable. Can’t make definitive conclusions based on what one variable does. 

More upside with the latest NAM solution?

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I see several offsetting thing. Less amped phases STJ wave more a stronger NS vort. Slightly less confluence to our north but less ridging to our south and a slightly flatter flow heading in. There is more than one variable. Can’t make definitive conclusions based on what one variable does. 

Yep. Just wish we could get the less amped STJ wave without losing a bit of confluence which so far all runs have had happen at the same time. Either way Nam would be a sleet bomb and not a freezing rain bomb (for VA) which is good.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Looks like its transferring off Wilmington, NC at H84?

Yeah was looking at that, looks like it's popping a coastal and doesn't have a primary up in WV/PA.

[nj2va]

This is all snow north of about Henrico county ish

[Cobalt]

Just going through the memory bank of similar WAA-driven events, I recall how amped the NAM suite was for the Dec 16-17 2020 junction. Their first runs at range scoured out any cold air at 700/850mb well to the northeast, an extreme NW outlier. They were the first warning signs for that event, and while the other (less amped) guidance didn't completely cave to their long-range looks, they did conform to its depiction of warm quickly scouring out the relatively weak CAD signature. That makes me wonder if the 12k NAM isn't completely off its rocker with its current depiction.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Imma leave this right here (0z vs 18z...stronger banana high and puts that TV low right in its place)

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Looks like its transferring off Wilmington, NC at H84?

Unfortunately damage is probably done when it comes to mixing. I mean we have a closed 700mb low over Oklahoma! Though it is better than its 18z run no matter what.