January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[87storms]

Upper level map really is a lot different on the gfs compared to the euro and cmc. Who knows. Gfs output kinda makes more sense given the pattern we’re in as opposed to some ramped up low. I think that would ultimately end up an easy warning level snow, but looks nothing like a hecs at 500mb. Model mayhem continues.

[LeesburgWx]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think they're actually doing the sampling tonight for the models to use tomorrow?

They are in there now, so using it tomorrow would be old data. I am pretty sure it’s for tonight but someone correct me if I’m wrong

[LordBaltimore]

5 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

It won’t even be in the 0Z tonight. It will be in tomorrow. 

 

7 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

None of the models today have incorporated the sampled data yet. 

This would be in PREPBUFR no? I'm almost bored enough to check

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

They are in there now, so using it tomorrow would be old data. I am pretty sure it’s for tonight but someone correct me if I’m wrong

Can’t imagine him using latency data

[GreyHat]

25 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS; ticked south

 

 

Didn't the GFS or one of the models show this output earlier before all the crazy ice started invading the area?

[mitchnick]

18z GGEM looks like it's getting all wound up at lonk below, but comparing it to the Rgem at 84hrs, Rgem with noticeably better confluence  fwiw.

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_gdps

[weathercoins]

The Wakefield discussion is a little weird, with repeated references to the storm beginning on Saturday, transitioning to a mix on Sunday, then turning to snow on “Monday morning,” and saying “precip will likely conclude by Monday evening.”  Seems late even for the coast.

[Darkstorm]

Just now, IronTy said:

Hey guys real quick, anybody know when the sampled data is integrated into the models?

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

For clarity sake

Data ingest is ONGOING and will be available for the 00z runs TONIGHT (00z 1/22)

There has been NO RECON DATA FOR TODAY (1/21). 
 

Thanks

[87storms]

22 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

All models going one way to more amped. Gfs heading toward the de amp lol. Better watch out leave any more of that SW behind it becomes a whiff to the south the some the ens had. But clearly I think the gfs is on crack. 

Yep, shows how easily this system could get bullied south and become a sheared out system. Seems like anything from amped to modest to even a two-part system is on the table.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

For clarity sake

Data ingest is ONGOING and will be available for the 00z runs TONIGHT (00z 1/22)

There has been NO RECON DATA FOR TODAY (1/21). 
 

Thanks

Thanks for the clarification! Leave it Zulu time to confuse the entire thread, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, 87storms said:

Yep, shows how easily this system could get bullied south and become a sheared out system. Seems like anything from amped to modest to even a two-part system is on the table.

Pretty sure sheared out is off the table here

[Terpeast]

When looking at the 00z runs tonight, pay attention to the difference in both waves out west between 0 hr in the new run vs 6 hr forecast in the previous run. That might give us clues IF there are any differences that stand out. 

[batmanbrad]

latest discussion from WPC:

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Jan 22 2026 - 00Z Sun Jan 25 2026

***Major Winter Storm To Bring Significant Impacts To The South
 Friday Through This Weekend, Expanding Up The East Coast Saturday
 Night Into Sunday***

...Southern Rockies, Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Mid-South,
Southern & Central Appalachians, & Mid-Atlantic...
Days 2-3...

The ingredients for the impending major winter storm begin to take
shape Thursday night. A broad upper trough located off Baja
California will work in tandem with a ridge axis near Mexico to
direct a rich plume of tropical East Pacific moisture into the
Southern Rockies and Plains. At the same time, an arctic front
ushers in the coldest temperatures this season across the Great
Plains with a highly anomalous dome of arctic high pressure
building in over the North Central U.S.. As high pressure rushes
south, easterly upslope flow induced between the high pressure to
the north and lower pressure near California will cause upslope
flow into the higher terrain of the CO and NM Rockies with lighter
snowfall in the central High Plains. WPC probabilities show high
chances (>70%) for snowfall above 9,000ft in the CO/NM Rockies
through Saturday afternoon.

Precipitation will blossom over much of KS, OK, and TX Friday,
starting as rain across much of TX initially, but look for precipitation to
transition to snow over KS, northern OK, and the TX Panhandle by
Friday afternoon and evening. Farther south, strengthening low-
level WAA will over-run the incoming sub-freezing layer in the
lowest 2,000ft of the atmosphere from West Texas to as far east as
the Mid-South. Sleet will become more prevalent over the Red River
Valley, north-central AR, and into western TN, while freezing rain
is the primary preip type from the TX Hill Country through the
ArkLaTex and as far east as the TN Valley. Heavy sleet is possible
in some of these areas with multiple inches of sleet possible
through Saturday. The slow progression of the upper trough over
Baja California and the bitterly cold arctic air-mass anchored
over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS is a recipe ripe for
prolonged freezing rain from central TX to as far east as the
southern Appalachians through 00Z Sunday. WPC probabilities show
concerningly high probabilities (50-70%) for ice accumulations
through 00Z Sunday over one-quarter inch. The areas of greatest
concern are over the ArkLaTx, southern AR, northern LA, northern
MS/AL, and southern TN where low-to-moderate chances (30-50%)
exist for over one-half inch of ice. While this discussion is
geared to the short term (ending 00Z Sunday) the ice in all these
areas are forecast to continue through Saturday night and even into
Sunday. There is great concern for extensive tree damage and power
outages from central TX on east through the Mid-South and into the
Southern Appalachians into Sunday.

Farther north, the air-mass through the depth of the atmospheric
column remains cold enough to support all snow from the Central
Plains on east through the Ozarks and across northern TN and much
of KY beginning Friday evening in the Plains, then into the TN/OH
Valleys Saturday morning. By midday and into Saturday afternoon,
periods of snow will reach the southern and central Appalachians
and potentially the VA/NC Piedmont. Snowfall rates topping 1"/hr
are likely in areas just north of the strongest 850-700mb FGEN
zone and vertical velocities are highest in a highly saturated
dendritic growth zone in the Central Plains and OH Valley. The
very cold temperatures over KS on east through MS and into the OH
Valley will cause SLRs to range anywhere from between 12-18:1 with
the higher SLRs over KS. WPC probabilities through 00Z Sunday
depict high chances (>70%) for >4" of snow over central and
southern KS, much of northern OK, the TX Panhandle, and into the
Ozarks of northern AR and southern MO. The best chances for >8" of
snowfall reside over the Ozarks where moderate chance probabilities
(40-60%) are present.

Similar to the ice, the snow will by no means be over given the
extensive plume of anomalous moisture emanating out of the East
Pacific. By Saturday night, southerly flow out of the Gulf will
continue to direct copious amounts of moisture into the eastern
U.S., resulting in a highly disruptive and dangerous winter storm
from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic. WPC continues to issue Key
Messages for this winter storm and a link to them can be found
below.

[konksw]

Is the amplification currently being shown something that can be overstated in a Niña year on modeling?

[CAPE]

GEFS in good agreement with the op if you use 10:1 like the ens. To be expected at this range.

[IronTy]

Just now, CAPE said:

GEFS in good agreement with the op if you use 10:1 like the ens. To be expected at this range.

Looks ideal.  This is where I'm gonna leave it and sign off for tonight.  At least until the euro runs.  

[WxUSAF]

So far it seems all the divergence in 18z model outcomes is based on the northern stream shortwave, not the Baja low. Maybe the recon has enough fuel to make it to northern Canada??

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GEFS in good agreement with the op if you use 10:1 like the ens. To be expected at this range.

Looks like GFS and ICON are outliers on opposite ends of the spectrum.

[mitchnick]

Didn't see it posted, pardon me if it was. The 12z Ukie ensembles.  Back to looking a lot like 0z with DCA/BWI being the bullseye.

[CAPE]

Perfect track so all in the region stays frozen- with just a bit of sleet around SBY. Ofc it probably wont work out this way.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

So far it seems all the divergence in 18z model outcomes is based on the northern stream shortwave, not the Baja low. Maybe the recon has enough fuel to make it to northern Canada??

Isn’t that the case usually?  When we see these shifts inside 100 hours it seems to usually be related to NS features which are harder to resolve anyways and are diving down from sparsely sampled regions. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, CAPE said:

Perfect track so all in the region stays frozen- with just a bit of sleet around SBY. Ofc it probably wont work out this way.

We want that coastal cranking and a quick handoff.

[mitchnick]

Speaking of ensembles, the 12z Canadians were in line with other ensembles too despite the operational.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

So far it seems all the divergence in 18z model outcomes is based on the northern stream shortwave, not the Baja low. Maybe the recon has enough fuel to make it to northern Canada??

Agree. Want some interaction but not a full phase- keep the flow flattish and cold.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Miller B 

That’s right and they don’t work and would be another terrible model miss if we turn into that .  1040 highs are hard to eradicate and this does  not look like a deep  low.  We need it to just move east and let the waa into this cold air.  I don’t care if a low ever forms on the coast but we certainly can’t have one at the PA/WV border 

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Wow, 18z and pretty much every global model is still giving us double digits.

[Wonderdog]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Perfect track so all in the region stays frozen- with just a bit of sleet around SBY. Ofc it probably wont work out this way.

Only has to hold for three and a half more days. What could go wrong?

[WxUSAF]

 

[WxUSAF]

Note Tomer’s EPS predominant precip plots are all snow for the metro areas. 

[WEATHER53]

58 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

It gets DC to about 1" QPF, all snow.  Kuceras are going to be large.

I’m trying to add all the panels and get 10” minimum 16” maximum thru 4 am Monday