Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Some AM local station updates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Moral of the story after 12z for south Coast, thump is heavier, but shorter. Likely evens out if we get some crazy rates for a few hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Along and So84, yes, but just No84 may hit the higher end of the range. Looks like we are going to battle here, Im just north and you are just south....we went from wiffing to sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: congrats on continuous north tics until go time. He’s been rooting against us the whole time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Some nice goodies on Monday on gfs. That’s high ratio fluff looking at soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: He’s been rooting against us the whole time lol That’s what they do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 What happened to that dude that lived in Weha Ice1976 or something like that used to post drunk after bottles of Gin late nights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah a tick north on gfs. Thermals look pretty steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Congrats you got it. Horrible trends for us today. One more bump and its sleets to Boston (a possibility at this point). Bad mood so... . Tomorrow disappointment 4 to 8 and a lot of sleet. Cold and dry for 7 days. Warm up and rain from a coastal hugger with a stale airmass. SSWE fails and everyone blames GW and says in 1900 we would have had 150 inches in the same setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Goodness the QPF uptick Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Some nice goodies on Monday on gfs. That’s high ratio fluff looking at soundings. Snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 That said gfs is a massive thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, CoastalWx said: That’s what they do When I woke up to find the last 4 pages mainly comprised of posts by primshine, dryslot, dendrite and mpm, I knew the North trend had continued 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 So ...question for ..I don't know whom. These Kuchera charts, I guess a few minutes with Ghat GPT is all that is needed to get a reasonable model of how exactly they are coming up with the graphics. But assuming that they are really just using the 10:1 ratios applied to modeled QPF ? In a situation with 15:1 below the DGZ regions, not being intruded by a warm layer.... does that imply adding to the Kuchera output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, CoastalWx said: That said gfs is a massive thump It is. Just shorter duration for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 That GFS is pure nudity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Boston Jax? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Some nice goodies on Monday on gfs. That’s high ratio fluff looking at soundings. Yeah noticed that. Hangs back a band through here on Monday after ramping up QPF for the thump. That's how we'd do 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Dryslot Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 arw's are not particularly amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 36 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Do we even have a nickname for the RRFS yet? Seems we got one for all the others Goofus- GFS King/Dr.No- Euro Skynet- EuroAI Reggie- RGEM ICONic- ICON (Looking at you Astronomer) Uncle- UKMET Nammer- NAM (And I personally call the GEM "Ol' Timbits") Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk It can get a nickname when it actually goes operational. The RRFS A on Pivotal has already been deemed a “failure” by NOAA and will never be used for official forecasts. All the FV3 (of which RRFS is one) based models are going to be replaced, unless I’m misunderstanding what I have read. The next version based on different physics is still considered even more experimental. So maybe the nickname should be “cancelled”? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, radarman said: Yeah noticed that. Hangs back a band through here on Monday after ramping up QPF for the thump. That's how we'd do 18" Drop a couple tenths on Monday with those soundings. You could grab 3-5” of fluff with that. I hope it’s right but it’s not every model. Icon and NAM were less. Maybe a tenth at most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: arw's are not particularly amped Yeah..tossing those for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masswx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 As soon as I get a storm that would be good here Im probably gonna get screwed by sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masswx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 In other words was not looking for a big north tick on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateMA Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Masswx said: In other words was not looking for a big north tick on gfs You are going to get crushed, dont stress. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masswx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, ScituateMA said: You are going to get crushed, dont stress. I really hope so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Dryslot Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The fronto is north of HFD/PVD by the time it starts snizzling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: So ...question for ..I don't know whom. These Kuchera charts, I guess a few minutes with Ghat GPT is all that is needed to get a reasonable model of how exactly they are coming up with the graphics. But assuming that they are really just using the 10:1 ratios applied to modeled QPF ? In a situation with 15:1 below the DGZ regions, not being intruded by a warm layer.... does that imply adding to the Kuchera output? The method uses like an average temperature of the lower troposphere to determine a snow ratio. I think in these situations with the very cold llvls below an above warm layer, yes the Kuchera method would "inflate" the output. The Kuchera method is so terrible...equally as worse as 10:1 maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, Masswx said: As soon as I get a storm that would be good here Im probably gonna get screwed by sleet As some others have posted, we are lucky we are getting this much for a SWFE. Ordinarily they do not perform well in coastal plain, and they often end as rain, not sleet, for those closer to the south coastal areas. I’ve seen as much as 6-8” wash away to nothing or almost nothing at the end in some of the more potent ones. 8-12” with sleet at the end isn’t the end of the world. Canada actually being cold again has been the key this year. We have seen more favorable setups in previous seasons but no cold to tap into and we end up with mostly slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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