“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Masswx said:

As soon as I get a storm that would be good here Im probably gonna get screwed by sleet

Just tossing everything I taught  you 

[ScituateMA]

4 minutes ago, Masswx said:

I really hope so

Latest GFS has you getting 18-19" and 12z HRRR has you at 14" with 10:1 ratios. Its very likely the storm will deliver 12:1 ratios for you overall. Just my guess ofcourse. I am not a MET or expert.

12-24 with high probability is something to celebrate in this day and age. Its been a rough stint.

[WxWatcher007]

Will reevaluate after euro 

[FXWX]

42 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Two aspects I don't have a problem with ... 

A,  giant QPF realization

B,  displacing transition zones to higher latitude, going from snow to dry IP falling thru low level aggregates like the latter are dodging being shattered by very proficiently froze bullets whizzing by them ... all under an exceptionally sloped winter sounding structure.  

A happens because this whole ordeals pulling up an unusually high PWAT source - benefiting winter enthusiasts, happenstance lobbing it over a near historically cold lower tropospheric slab of very fresh, nascent intrusion.  The former is usual transport set up... and so positive precipitation anomaly results.  Fine.

As for B,  I actually don't have a problem with that happening ... to some degree.  Let's not get crazy.  I know I'm in the minority in this dopa crazed din of objective rationality ( haha) but the reason this storm is happening is because warm air is going over cold air. 

So...longer winded sermon:  we're having an arctic intrusion in temporal coincidence with a time-lagged MJO phase 6 STJ attempting to assert itself into the OV/TV regions with it's highly correlated warm anomaly.  Two titanic signals clashing... storm results.  It's really quite elegantly coherent like that - for me anyway.  But these opposing forces are exceedingly polarized.  The cold is ridic.  The warm correlation is fighting back - so to speak.. It's going to go over top because it physically can't go anywhere else ( btw ...I'm just writing all this for the art and fun of it - am aware you know all this).  That means this whole situation is uniquely set up to maximize the slopes of these sounding.  I could see it setting a record for synoptic difference between 700 mb over White Plains NY say, while it is 12 F at the surface.  This might be similar to 1994, 10,000K sleet column, only just a tad colder.   All I'm saying is that there's conceptual plausibility to an IP carpet bombing.  

So, using the NAM as proxy, the 860 mb is closed, weakly so...albeit still closed; it aligns an axis W-E just south of the Pike on this 12z rendition, at warmest synoptic pass.  That is about 50 mi N of where the model placed that same axis 12z yesterday.   It seems to me, the IP line is moving in concert with that repositioning, more so than the model just arbitrarily warming it aloft.   We can kind of get a sense of that repositioning below

The IP line is falling probably from an elevated layer above this... because it is actually below 0C at this 850 mb rendering down to the beaches of the south shores.  The 700mb level, meanwhile, remains open...  not closing, but flat.  This latter circumstance is a bit idiosyncratic, and would limit the IP line penetration in latitude, given this NAM solution - its angle of ascent at that level is oriented more W-E.   It's like utterly locking the IP right where we see that black line.  If the flow between 850 and 700+ was more S... trust me, it would drive the IP line bodily N over this arctic air mass.  

Now ...this is the wholesale structure of the NAM.  The NAM could also redraw all this back to 12z yesterday's rendition, it would reposition the IP line back S.. and the variance in the total structure et al, like above?  it would almost be unnoticeable if not looking for it.  The NAM has a N-W bias over the eastern CONUS as an ongoing operational concern. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that we are just seeing that express. Probably have to now-cast that 

 

We are reaching the point in time with this event that we have to settle into to doing more meteorology, and a bit less model-olgy...  I am not saying stop looking at the models, but starting spending some time comparing short-range model trends with what the actual surface and upper-level plots re showing?   Take a look at SPC meso plots every couple of hours and see how those plots align with the modeling solutions for the same time; note trends and differences between the actual data plots and the modeled solutions, at several levels (sfc to 500 mb).

As it relates to the sleet issue, the one thing I have learned over the decades, is the strength of arctic air masses is often under-played by the modeling; the attack and overwhelming of the air mass is often over-played.  That is often the case with arctic air masses of less intensity than this one!   

So yes, enjoy looking at all the new runs of the model suites, but pretty soon you (everyone, this not meant for Tip) need to start checking on real-time trends not only across New England, but also the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Deep South areas, and see if the reality of the current weather jives with the modeled solutions...  The bottom line is, enjoy this event...

 

 

[Digityman]

I'm really liking NH/ME border up to Brunswick over to Dryslot with these north ticks.  

[weatherwiz]

This is going to be amazing. I don't want to use the T word but can it happen?

[Damage In Tolland]

Hi Res Reggie keeps sleet confined to far S coast . This is the farthest north it gets . NAM may be too warm 

[ScituateMA]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

We are reaching the point in time with this event that we have to settle into to doing more meteorology, and a bit less model-olgy...  I am not saying stop looking at the models, but starting spending some time comparing short-range model trends with what the actual surface and upper-level plots re showing?   Take a look at SPC meso plots every couple of hours and see how those plots align with the modeling solutions for the same time; note trends and differences between the actual data plots and the modeled solutions, at several levels (sfc to 500 mb).

As it relates to the sleet issue, the one thing I have learned over the decades, is the strength of arctic air masses is often under-played by the modeling; the attack and overwhelming of the air mass is often over-played.  That is often the case with arctic air masses of less intensity than this one!   

So yes, enjoy looking at all the new runs of the model suites, but pretty soon you (everyone, this not meant for Tip) need to start checking on real-time trends not only across New England, but also the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Deep South areas, and see if the reality of the current weather jives with the modeled solutions...  The bottom line is, enjoy this event...

 

 

The amount of times people have begged for an arctic air mass this strong ahead of an event is numerous. Will be fun to watch the battle on mesomaps.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Hi Res Reggie keeps sleet confined to far S coast . This is the farthest north it gets . NAM may be too warm 

I noted that it was one of the coldest solutions, along with UKIE, at 6z. my guess is that comes north 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

We are reaching the point in time with this event that we have to settle into to doing more meteorology, and a bit less model-olgy...  I am not saying stop looking at the models, but starting spending some time comparing short-range model trends with what the actual surface and upper-level plots re showing?   Take a look at SPC meso plots every couple of hours and see how those plots align with the modeling solutions for the same time; note trends and differences between the actual data plots and the modeled solutions, at several levels (sfc to 500 mb).

As it relates to the sleet issue, the one thing I have learned over the decades, is the strength of arctic air masses is often under-played by the modeling; the attack and overwhelming of the air mass is often over-played.  That is often the case with arctic air masses of less intensity than this one!   

So yes, enjoy looking at all the new runs of the model suites, but pretty soon you (everyone, this not meant for Tip) need to start checking on real-time trends not only across New England, but also the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Deep South areas, and see if the reality of the current weather jives with the modeled solutions...  The bottom line is, enjoy this event...

 

 

100%

And speaking of that, the snow side of things is overperforming in parts of the South, particularly Arkansas at least

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hi Res Reggie keeps sleet confined to far S coast . This is the farthest north it gets . NAM may be too warm 

6z

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

6z

Yup

[Masswx]

Aren’t sending Reggie out?

[mahk_webstah]

8 minutes ago, Masswx said:

I really hope so

Get your rest and weenie out Sunday night.  You’re gonna get a great thump!

[Baroclinic Zone]

[Torch Tiger]

14 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Yeah..tossing those for now. 

misspoke...they are very juicy.  lol  i meant not too progressive or north with the sleet/mix line. that's a good sign.  through 12z Mon

 

[dryslot]

20 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

He’s been rooting against us the whole time lol

 

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s what they do 

Take 2 there small 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

[Kitz Craver]

There is much to suggest Boston is getting a burial, lotta maxes out that way

[metagraphica]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hi Res Reggie keeps sleet confined to far S coast . This is the farthest north it gets . NAM may be too warm 

That'll be right on my doorstep.  We'll see what it does. Still looking forward to a big 12" here.

[Kitz Craver]

Besides the sleet discussion, any discernible trends with the Monday reach around at 12z?

[Baroclinic Zone]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is going to be amazing. I don't want to use the T word but can it happen?

Local PVD station MET did not rule out thunder snow.

[weatherwiz]

12z NAM bufkit BDL....LG....LFG. Look at that thump. And we get consistently good lift through the DGZ for the duration 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Uncle:

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z Ukie looks pretty close to 06z run. Bumping up QPF some as well.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

12z Ukie looks pretty close to 06z run. Bumping up QPF some as well.

[Damage In Tolland]

Noyes / One Degree Outside 

 

 

[moneypitmike]

If I really squint, i can see a tinge of pink on mi casa on the GFS qpf map.

 

keep nudging.

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[JKEisMan]

Hours 12-36 of href