“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[Baroclinic Zone]

Some AM local station updates. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Moral of the story after 12z for south Coast, thump is heavier, but shorter. Likely evens out if we get some crazy rates for a few hours 

[Spanks45]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Along and So84, yes, but just No84 may hit the higher end of the range.

Looks like we are going to battle here, Im just north and you are just south....we went from wiffing to sleet

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

congrats on continuous north tics until go time. 

He’s been rooting against us the whole time lol

[ORH_wxman]

Some nice goodies on Monday on gfs. That’s high ratio fluff looking at soundings. 
 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

He’s been rooting against us the whole time lol

That’s what they do 

[Damage In Tolland]

What happened to that dude that lived in Weha Ice1976 or something like that used to post drunk after bottles of Gin late nights? 

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah a tick north on gfs. 

Thermals look pretty steady

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Congrats you got it.

Horrible trends for us today.

One more bump and its sleets to Boston (a possibility at this point).

Bad mood so... .

Tomorrow disappointment 4 to 8 and a lot of sleet.

Cold and dry for 7 days.

Warm up and rain from a coastal hugger with a stale airmass.

SSWE fails and everyone blames GW and says in 1900 we would have had 150 inches in the same setup. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Goodness the QPF uptick

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[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some nice goodies on Monday on gfs. That’s high ratio fluff looking at soundings. 
 

Snowy 

[CoastalWx]

That said gfs is a massive thump 

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That’s what they do 

When I woke up to find the last 4 pages mainly comprised of posts by primshine, dryslot, dendrite and mpm, I knew the North trend had continued

[Typhoon Tip]

So ...question for ..I don't know whom. 

These Kuchera charts, I guess a few minutes with Ghat GPT is all that is needed to get a reasonable model of how exactly they are coming up with the graphics.  But assuming that they are really just using the 10:1 ratios applied to modeled QPF ?  

In a situation with 15:1 below the DGZ regions, not being intruded by a warm layer.... does that imply adding to the Kuchera output?   

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That said gfs is a massive thump 

It is. Just shorter duration for some. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

That GFS is pure nudity.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Boston Jax?

[radarman]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some nice goodies on Monday on gfs. That’s high ratio fluff looking at soundings. 
 

Yeah noticed that.  Hangs back a band through here on Monday after ramping up QPF for the thump.  That's how we'd do 18"

[CT Valley Dryslot]

[Torch Tiger]

arw's are not particularly amped

[bristolri_wx]

36 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Do we even have a nickname for the RRFS yet? Seems we got one for all the others

Goofus- GFS
King/Dr.No- Euro
Skynet- EuroAI
Reggie- RGEM
ICONic- ICON (Looking at you Astronomer)
Uncle- UKMET
Nammer- NAM
(And I personally call the GEM "Ol' Timbits")

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It can get a nickname when it actually goes operational. The RRFS A on Pivotal has already been deemed a “failure” by NOAA and will never be used for official forecasts. All the FV3 (of which RRFS is one) based models are going to be replaced, unless I’m misunderstanding what I have read. The next version based on different physics is still considered even more experimental.

So maybe the nickname should be “cancelled”? LOL

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, radarman said:

Yeah noticed that.  Hangs back a band through here on Monday after ramping up QPF for the thump.  That's how we'd do 18"

Drop a couple tenths on Monday with those soundings. You could grab 3-5” of fluff with that. I hope it’s right but it’s not every model. 
 

Icon and NAM were less. Maybe a tenth at most. 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

arw's are not particularly amped

Yeah..tossing those for now. 

[Masswx]

As soon as I get a storm that would be good here Im probably gonna get screwed by sleet

[Masswx]

In other words was not looking for a big north tick on gfs

[ScituateMA]

Just now, Masswx said:

In other words was not looking for a big north tick on gfs

You are going to get crushed, dont stress.

[Masswx]

Just now, ScituateMA said:

You are going to get crushed, dont stress.

I really hope so

[CT Valley Dryslot]

The fronto is north of HFD/PVD by the time it starts snizzling.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So ...question for ..I don't know whom. 

These Kuchera charts, I guess a few minutes with Ghat GPT is all that is needed to get a reasonable model of how exactly they are coming up with the graphics.  But assuming that they are really just using the 10:1 ratios applied to modeled QPF ?  

In a situation with 15:1 below the DGZ regions, not being intruded by a warm layer.... does that imply adding to the Kuchera output?   

The method uses like an average temperature of the lower troposphere to determine a snow ratio. I think in these situations with the very cold llvls below an above warm layer, yes the Kuchera method would "inflate" the output. The Kuchera method is so terrible...equally as worse as 10:1 maps

[bristolri_wx]

5 minutes ago, Masswx said:

As soon as I get a storm that would be good here Im probably gonna get screwed by sleet

As some others have posted, we are lucky we are getting this much for a SWFE.

Ordinarily they do not perform well in coastal plain, and they often end as rain, not sleet, for those closer to the south coastal areas.

I’ve seen as much as 6-8” wash away to nothing or almost nothing at the end in some of the more potent ones.

8-12” with sleet at the end isn’t the end of the world.

Canada actually being cold again has been the key this year. We have seen more favorable setups in previous seasons but no cold to tap into and we end up with mostly slop.