“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[DJln491]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Do we even have a nickname for the RRFS yet? Seems we got one for all the others

Goofus- GFS
King/Dr.No- Euro
Reggie- RGEM
ICONic- ICON (Looking at you Astronomer)
Uncle- UKMET
Nammer- NAM
(And I personally call the GEM "Ol' Timbits")

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Rufus

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Do we even have a nickname for the RRFS yet? Seems we got one for all the others

Goofus- GFS
King/Dr.No- Euro
Skynet- EuroAI
Reggie- RGEM
ICONic- ICON (Looking at you Astronomer)
Uncle- UKMET
Nammer- NAM
(And I personally call the GEM "Ol' Timbits")

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Roofies

[dryslot]

Worthless 

[Baroclinic Zone]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Two aspects I don't have a problem with ... 

A,  giant QPF realization

B,  displacing transition zones to higher latitude, going from snow to dry IP falling thru low level aggregates like the latter are dodging being shattered by very proficiently froze bullets whizzing by them ... all under an exceptionally sloped winter sounding structure.  

A happens because this whole ordeals pulling up an unusually high PWAT source, and lobbing it over a near historically cold lower tropospheric slab of very fresh, nascent intrusion.  This rare as a set up... and precipitation anomaly results.  Fine.

As for B,  I actually don't have a problem with that happening ... to some degree.  Let's not get crazy.  I know I'm in the minority in this dopa crazed din of objective rationality ( haha) but the reason this storm is happening is because warm air is going over cold air. 

So...longer winded sermon:  we're having an arctic intrusion in temporal coincidence with a time-lagged MJO phase 6 STJ attempting to assert itself into the OV/TV regions with it's highly correlated warm anomaly.  Two titanic signals clashing... storm results.  It's really quite elegantly coherent like that - for me anyway.  But these opposing forces are exceedingly polarized.  The cold is ridic.  The warm correlation is fighting back - so to speak.. It's going to go over top because it physically can't go anywhere else ( btw ...I'm just writing all this for the art and fun of it - am aware you know all this).  That means this whole situation is uniquely set up to maximize the slopes of these sounding.  I could see it setting a record for synoptic difference between 700 mb over White Plains NY say, while it is 12 F at the surface.  This might be similar to 1994, 10,000K sleet column, only just a tad colder.    

So, using the NAM as proxy, the 860 mb is closed, weakly so...albeit still closed; it aligns an axis W-E just south of the Pike on this 12z rendition, at warmest synoptic pass.  That is about 50 mi N of where the model placed that same axis 12z yesterday.   It seems to me, the IP line is moving in concert with that repositioning, more so than the model just arbitrarily warming it aloft.   We can kind of get a sense of that repositioning below

The IP line is falling probably from an elevated layer above this... because it is actually below 0C at this 850 mb rendering down to the beaches of the south shores.  The 700mb level, meanwhile, remains open...  not closing, but flat.  That latter is a bit idiosyncratic, and will limit the IP line penetration in latitude, because it angle of ascent at that level is oriented more W-E.   It's like utterly locking the IP right where we see that black line.  If the flow between 850 and 700+ was more S... trust me, it would drive the IP line bodily N over this arctic air mass.  

Now ...this is the wholesale structure of the NAM.  The NAM could also redraw all this back to 12z yesterday's rendition, it would reposition the IP line back S.. and the variance in the total structure et al, like above?  it would almost be unnoticeable if not looking for it.  The NAM has a N-W bias over the eastern CONUS as an ongoing operational concern. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that we are just seeing that express. Probably have to now-cast that 

 

John

this is a great explanation of the mechanics. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Icon is a massive hit here 

[RDRY]

Why doesn't the ICON surface map show sleet? Is it a German thing?

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

NAM actually wasn't too bad with the sleet.

It was a bunch of wildness that settled down pretty quickly 

[ineedsnow]

This storm is going to be great here and for alot of others! 

[SouthCoastMA]

At this rate it's only going to snow like 7 hours here. going with 8-10" now vs 10"+

[ORH_wxman]

A lot of these recent runs are showing 1.5”+ QPF here….def getting more high end. Still think prob 12-18 but some 20 burgers aren’t out of question. 

[DomNH]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

This storm is going to be great here and for alot of others! 

Yeah I think 12-20'' is pretty fair for the Rt. 2/SNH region now that it looks like we'll definitely be able to wring out over 1'' of liquid. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

A lot of these recent runs are showing 1.5”+ QPF here….def getting more high end. Still think prob 12-18 but some 20 burgers aren’t out of question. 

We are starting to see some outlets and Mets take amounts up . More will likely follow suit later today 

[ROOSTA]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

This storm is going to be great here and for alot of others! 

85F here tomorrow. Down to a brutal of 65F Monday.

Sleet is becoming a concern especially Pike south...

[weatherwiz]

53 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What are we excited about here

Was looking at the omega 

[Prismshine Productions]

85F here tomorrow. Down to a brutal of 65F Monday.
Sleet is becoming a concern especially Pike south...

Have fun with that sunshine

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[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We are starting to see some outlets and Mets take amounts up . More will likely follow suit later today 

I’d still keep it 12-18 for here because I’m skeptical of 20+ if we aren’t getting more than an inch or two Monday. Our biggest thumps are typically in the 14-15” range (ala Mar 2017, Feb 5, 2014, etc)….if we messenger shuffle the low level circulations a bit over the next 24 hours, then maybe I’d consider going a little higher since that would make Monday look better. But the big snows are basically 10 hours…like 2pm-midnight. A little earlier for your area. So it’s hard to go too crazy given those facts. 

[dryslot]

Just need the goofus to move a tic or two north now.

[Go Kart Mozart]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Model sucks 

I hope so, because it shows me sleeting after 5" of snow.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d still keep it 12-18 for here because I’m skeptical of 20+ if we aren’t getting more than an inch or two Monday. Our biggest thumps are typically in the 14-15” range (ala Mar 2017, Feb 5, 2014, etc)….if we messenger shuffle the low level circulations a bit over the next 24 hours, then maybe I’d consider going a little higher since that would make Monday look better. But the big snows are basically 10 hours…like 2pm-midnight. A little earlier for your area. So it’s hard to go too crazy given those facts. 

Are you thinking Monday is light snow all day with an additional 1-3 for most and maybe more along coast and E facing hills?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Just need the goofus to move a tic or two north now.

Congrats you got it.

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Just need the goofus to move a tic or two north now.

congrats on continuous north tics until go time. 

[dryslot]

12z GFS with a couple tics north as well.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Are you thinking Monday is light snow all day with an additional 1-3 for most and maybe more along coast and E facing hills?

Prob not all day. Could be nothing for a few hours in the morning while we wait for the vortmax to roll through. If we keep the low level circulation further south then I could see steadier stuff most of the day. But the latest trends want to tick it a bit northeast. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Congrats you got it.

 

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

congrats on continuous north tics until go time. 

 

Just now, dryslot said:

12z GFS with a couple tics north as well.

Ha

[DJln491]

take em down for CT

[DomNH]

GFS another monster hit MHT south. >1.25'' of QPF most of SNE. 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah a tick north on gfs. 

[moneypitmike]

37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I grew up on the coast. Practically every huge storm had taint. Huge totals before taint.

I grew ip in New London.  Outside of ‘78, the only hit i recall was an 8” storm while in HS when i made  a lot of money shoveling walks.  The rest if my youth was crap.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

take em down for CT

Along and So84, yes, but just No84 may hit the higher end of the range.

[weatherwiz]

Still don't see sleet having a large (negative) impact on snow totals down here. Maybe towards the shoreline it knocks off a few inches or so but not inland.