“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup...great point. 

I'll say too...looking around at various locations, I would like to start seeing some stronger omega values popping up on some of these soundings. It's easy to get carried away with ratios given everything but we aren't going to automatically snag very high ratios because the DGZ is deep and its cold. There are really a ton of details to go over and analyze on this

It’s a big push of isentropic lift…more of a consistent upglide over the cold dome.

Sadly you can’t seem to find isentropic model maps anymore online. This would be a pretty cold isentropic surface to work with.

[BrianW]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

I'm stoked for this, but it's a trifle disappointing that even with a fantastic antecedent airmass we still can't seem to escape taint down here. It's been ages since we've had a bona fide major that stayed snow start to finish.

Hopefully you lived in Hamden in Feb 2013 for the 40 inches. My sister sent me this from her apartment there. 

 

 

[dendrite]

@weatherwiz do any of these work for you? I forgot this guy’s page even existed

https://www.wxcaster.com/isentropic.htm

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

A bit low

Nah, They can go up instead of going back, Going back is not a good look.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

@weatherwiz do any of these work for you? I forgot this guy’s page even existed

https://www.wxcaster.com/isentropic.htm

Nothing loads for me either  

I forgot all about his page...his site used to be my go to for soundings back in the day.

 

[lurker]

 

[dryslot]

The Monday stuff is a wild card in my opinion

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The Monday stuff is a wild card in my opinion

Yup, I don’t think that is pinned down yet

[Warwick WX]

That channel 7 weenie is trying to find paydirt via the three-way (RI/CT/MA border).

[Damage In Tolland]

I won’t be surprised if sleet makes it up to this area for an hour or two 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I won’t be surprised if sleet makes it up to this area for an hour or two 

Even if it does or won’t really cut back much. Just nice to sit back and enjoy this event and know that we have more potentially in the pipeline. All you can ask. 

[dendrite]

Nammy is coming in hot in the MidAtl

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Even if it does or won’t really cut back much. Just nice to sit back and enjoy this event and know that we have more potentially in the pipeline. All you can ask. 

Yeah, we’re about locked. Maybe coastal areas need to watch out for a marginal cut, but overall this should be a tremendous region wide high end event. First in a long long time. Big cold after. 

[WinterWolf]

Bottom line…gonna be a big storm and big hit. We take and enjoy.  12-18 is a good bet where we stand right now.  As others have said…whatever happens during the day Monday(if anything at all) will be the extra or not. Let’s enjoy this. It’s been a long time coming. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even if it does or won’t really cut back much. Just nice to sit back and enjoy this event and know that we have more potentially in the pipeline. All you can ask. 

Yeah it won’t make much difference. I’m pretty bullish on Monday. I’ve seen that look and flow enough times over the years. It’s gonna snow right into Monday night with that east inflow 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even if it does or won’t really cut back much. Just nice to sit back and enjoy this event and know that we have more potentially in the pipeline. All you can ask. 

Welcome back. Lets go!

[CoastalWx]

Nam might be a little less amped this run. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah it won’t make much difference. I’m pretty bullish on Monday. I’ve seen that look and flow enough times over the years. It’s gonna snow right into Monday night with that east inflow 

I'm not sure that you and I get much accumulating snow after 3PM or so on Monday.  Hopefully

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

I'm not sure that you and I get much accumulating snow after 3PM or so on Monday.  Hopefully

I could see our areas getting 3-6 “ during the day . Eastern areas more 

[dryslot]

12z Nam is a bit flat this run.

[weatherwiz]

Going to be a hellacious fronto band moving through 

[CoastalWx]

Nam is pound town here late Sunday aftn and evening.

[weatherwiz]

Oh here we go...northeast CT right along the RI border. This is it

[ORH_wxman]

Def a bit more confluence so far. But it was pretty jacked at 06z so not totally surprising. 

[The 4 Seasons]

45 minutes ago, dendrite said:

@weatherwiz do any of these work for you? I forgot this guy’s page even existed

https://www.wxcaster.com/isentropic.htm

jesus i remember this site from college - still called the ETA in the mid 2000s, haven't been there in years. Nothing loads though. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

So what’s everyone’s guess? Snowday monday, do some places cancel Tuesday too?

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam might be a little less amped this run. 

Looks like that energy ejecting out of the Baja is a little more south and neutered. It may be for the best on the S coast because it looked like thermals were running warmer DC-south. 

[CCHurricane]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam might be a little less amped this run. 

How long the primary system holds on over interior mid-Atlantic vs. transfer to the coast will be important for extreme southern New England areas. 
 

12z NAM seems to transfer to coast a bit quicker with primary not making it as nearly as far north —> flatter run

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Oh here we go...northeast CT right along the RI border. This is it

It’s being a little generous with the dgz there. -10C is out of the max dendritic zone.

[Spanks45]

Nam looks better down here....definitely pancaking the precip more, squeezing out a bunch too. Mixing doesnt make it to the CT coast this time