“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[SouthCoastMA]

WOTY 2026 vegas odds just posted, strong start for weathergeek

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

12z is better for CT

No it wasn’t. They aren’t that different but 06z was def a bit better. 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ll save you the time 

 

so nobody sees between 10-12? interesting...

I thought i was looking at a Rorschach test for a second

[Layman]

On a percentage basis, how likely is it that a system depicted like this at this lead time, can STB when all the guidance is honing in as it is now?

[WeatherGeek2025]

is there an app i could use to make a professional snowmap?

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

12z is better for CT

15 to 20

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ll save you the time 

 

You know it's bad when people save it...that's like the special Olympics for meteorology.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm curious whether they are going to host Winter Storm Watches later today even though it's early

Hoist these…

[Sey-Mour Snow]

The relative consistency run to run at 96 hours out is wild .. there are such small changes in qpf for all of the northeast if you toggle back the last 3 runs. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Thursday 4am earliest I’d say more likely Thursday PM watches

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No it wasn’t. They aren’t that different but 06z was def a bit better. 

Models locking in. Generation storm for the USA

[Henry's Weather]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

is there an app i could use to make a professional snowmap?

I used google drawings for a while

[mreaves]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ll save you the time 

 

Virgin Islands screwed again!

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

I used google drawings for a while

If have F5 model package, you can draw on their maps..that's what I use. 

[MegaMike]

11 minutes ago, Pennfisherman said:

Impressive. Does this use 10:1 or is this taking all models with all ratios into account.

It uses several different algorithms + a bunch of different modeling systems < https://vlab.noaa.gov/documents/6609493/6665561/NBM_v4.2_Eval_SlideDeck.pdf >. Definitely an improvement over the traditional, 10:1 methodology. 

[moneypitmike]

19 minutes ago, dryslot said:

0.75-1.0"+ on the Euro

Where?

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

qpf wise up here it was better then 06z.

We LOVE to see it. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Where?

Everywhere.

[ROOSTA]

I'm endorsing this 100%. I turn 68 on Monday.
ALL IN!

[ineedsnow]

probably the biggest storm since March 2023 here

[nbweather]

2 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

It uses several different algorithms + a bunch of different modeling systems < https://vlab.noaa.gov/documents/6609493/6665561/NBM_v4.2_Eval_SlideDeck.pdf >. Definitely an improvement over the traditional, 10:1 methodology. 

Having a dynamic SLR is great. I find it can still be a little high with cold environments, especially if lacking deep lift. There is also the thing with high ratio snows where compaction begin quite quickly as amounts increase. The resulting 6hr, 12hr, end of storm measurements, etc. can be quite different in these setups. 

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Friday the earliest

Yeah, watches typically go up 48 hrs out.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Everywhere.

Some of that is tonight too

[The 4 Seasons]

7 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

It's a great website and there's a lot provided! It's free and the HREF (and others) is available too. For the weenies: https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi/?x4dLocations=%5B%22City%22%5D&chart=x4d&lat=40&lon=-1[…]1dSingleField=t2&x1dGraphStyle=pdf&x2dGraphStyle=boxwhisker 

For now, I'd stick with BUFKIT although the NBM does incorporate the Cobb snowfall algorithm.

For S&Gs, the 13z NBM has ratios ~12-20:1 throughout the event. It's a bit early for this (and snowfall maps), but man... I miss following potential snow events.

Thanks for this! You've been super helpful with stuff over the years i really appreciate it.

50-80% probs of 12"+ across SNE on the NBM lol

 

[Henry's Weather]

Perfect, board-wide MECS that we have to hold for 3 days… what could go wrong?

[Cold Miser]

4 hours ago, TheSnowman said:

Models continue to push for an HECS Across the Middle and South of the country on Friday & Saturday, with a possible MECS here Sunday onward.  

“Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ..." by the Weather Poet with a keyboard, Typhoon Tip

 

 

Like I said a month ago.  Winter will start when I leave for the LA NAMM & Grammys Trip.  

 

If you didn't have that desire to sit next to Justin Timberlake at an awards show every February then you'd be home for a storm once in a while. 

 

[CoastalWx]

12z eps maybe a hair wetter be 6z. Pretty consistent through hr 108

[Sey-Mour Snow]

To me this looks like a hellacious thump to slot for 8-12 hours then maybe we can fill in some more snow Sunday overnight into Monday.

CNE and NNE may have longer duration. Moderate snow 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some of that is tonight too

Tonight's isn't squat really.

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

Tonight's isn't squat really.

 

Yeah true up there. Was looking at the stuff from Kev to ORH