“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[TheSnowman]

Models continue to push for an HECS Across the Middle and South of the country on Friday & Saturday, with a possible MECS here Sunday onward.  

 

Like I said a month ago.  Winter will start when I leave.  

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

This thread will have 500 posts in 30 minutes, lol.

[Layman]

Thank you for leaving so we can all enjoy this potentially massive storm.  Your service is appreciated!

[Prismshine Productions]

Biggest three storms of my life:

4/4/24 (10")
2/16/25 (9" SN, not counting IP&ZR)
2/10-11/10 (South Carolina, 8.5")

This could podium easily

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Biggest three storms of my life:

4/4/24 (10")
2/16/25 (9" SN, not counting IP&ZR)
2/10-11/10 (South Carolina, 8.5")

This could podium easily

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Wow that's horrible.. You need to see a 30"+ burger, hits different - I've had that in 96 and 2013..  20" a bit more common about 5 of those in my life.. 

[TalcottWx]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Wow that's horrible.. You need to see a 30"+ burger, hits different - I've had that in 96 and 2013..  20" a bit more common about 5 of those in my life.. 

Oxford is in a good spot for this one.

[Prismshine Productions]

Hr84 Reggie

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[Prismshine Productions]

Iconic doing Iconic things @ineedsnow

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[Prismshine Productions]

Solid

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[tunafish]

Models and mets are significantly underestimating this thing.  

[The 4 Seasons]

Lock this.

[The 4 Seasons]

55 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Biggest three storms of my life:

4/4/24 (10")
2/16/25 (9" SN, not counting IP&ZR)
2/10-11/10 (South Carolina, 8.5")

This could podium easily


 

I'm not far behind 16" is where i cap off from Feb 2001, Mar 2001, Feb 2021, some day. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I wish these event specific threads would lead off with something more substantive....  It should be a requirement.  

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wish these event specific threads would lead off with something more substantive....  It should be a requirement.  

You mean like this: 

"Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ..." by Typhoon Tip

[Kitz Craver]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wish these event specific threads would lead off with something more substantive....  It should be a requirement.  

For this event I agree, it’d be nice to start with an overall synopsis 

[cleetussnow]

29 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Solid

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I'm solid.

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

You mean like this: 

"Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ..." by Typhoon Tip

I know you're referring to the lead post, i was just going back looking at this storm and i remember that insanely long title for the thread and thought it was funny. 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I know you're referring to the lead post, i was just going back looking at this storm and i remember that insanely long title for the thread and thought it was funny. 

LOL... 

not meaning to be a dink or cast shade, just sayn'  

[tunafish]

Delete this and someone with some cred start a new one with a synopsis. Please and thanks.

[TheSnowman]

31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wish these event specific threads would lead off with something more substantive....  It should be a requirement.  

You are the Greatest Writer there’s ever been Tip.  Tell me what you want, and I’ll edit it in with your Name.  

[TheSnowman]

1 minute ago, tunafish said:

Delete this and someone with some cred start a new one with a synopsis. Please and thanks.

The History of this online weather world from Eastern to American has Never been “Only a Pro can start weather threat threads.”   You simply don’t like my ranting or me  .  

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

The History of this online weather world from Eastern to American has Never been “Only a Pro can start weather threat threads.”   You simply don’t like my ranting or me  .  

The other option is that a lot of us are superstitious and are always searching for the combination of correct thread start timing and thread starter to bring sufficient luck.  I'm not sure who has the most recent batch of mojo when it comes to thread starting.  Maybe @Baroclinic Zone?  I wouldn't take it personally.

[Torch Tiger]

mentally checked out from this one....over-exposure/fatigue while also knowing its going to be a very boring, vanilla outcome.

Good luck

 

[tunafish]

6 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

The History of this online weather world from Eastern to American has Never been “Only a Pro can start weather threat threads.”   You simply don’t like my ranting or me  .  

I said cred, not pro!

How'd (A)I do?

1/25–26 Coastal Storm Thread: Deep Cold + Moisture Feed = High-Impact Ceiling (Still Volatile)

Big picture: We’re heading into a major arctic outbreak with a cold high pressing across the northern tier, while a frontal zone + subtropical moisture plume sets up to our south. Guidance supports a significant winter storm from the southern tier into the Mid-Atlantic, with increasing signals that SNE is now in the envelope. 

Over the last ~48h, there’s been a notable north shift in many solutions, tied to greater interaction/phasing between southern-stream energy and northern-stream energy over the Plains → deeper trough → stronger downstream ridging → farther north storm track. WPC notes this shift is broadly reflected across deterministic/ensembles/AI guidance, but also warns the unanimity could be partly a mirage due to unresolved shortwave details. 

SNE baseline expectation (as of 1/21):

• Snow looks increasingly likely late Sunday into Monday, but exact track/gradient still low confidence. 

• Ensemble spread still supports anything from “a few” to “10+” depending on where the coastal low tracks relative to the benchmark. 

• With the arctic air mass in place, SLRs could be higher than climo for much of the region where snow verifies. 

 Things to watch:

• Track vs benchmark (suppressed / benchmark / inside runner)

• Degree of phasing (deformation/banding ceiling vs quick hitter)

• Coastal front placement (I-95 jackpot potential vs sharp cutoff)

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Watch this become a SWFE lol 

It has that look on some modeling already.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Watch this become a SWFE lol 

It pretty much is on the gfs and icon. That definitely puts a ceiling on this. Not that it won’t be good 

[CoastalWx]

Slight tick south of GEFS?

[Wxbear25]

For those super amped solutions you really need that northern energy to pinch off. Slows everything down, allows heights to recover and acts as a fulcrum for the shortwave to rotate around

things like the GFS show it being still entrained in the long wave trough and actually pressing down on heights over SE Canada resulting in a more sheared system that transfers faster

For my neck of the woods, I’m personally pulling for the GFS, but I want everyone to win

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Slight tick south of GEFS?

Yes it does look slightly south of 06z. 

[weathafella]

Uncle still at the bar-late today