1/24-1/25 Major Winter Storm - S. IL, IN, and OH

[A-L-E-K]

33 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Lol

 

[largetornado]

RPDS says ky is a glacier 

[Harry Perry]

Hey we still have the new (but old) 00z RRFS on our side… 

[DocATL]

Latest from good ‘ol Tom. Good read.

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/16kZkzAXr1/?mibextid=wwXIfr

[RogueWaves]

On 1/21/2026 at 10:19 PM, McHenrySnow said:

I wasn't aware it had a good range.

36 hrs and under does p'good

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Final call 3.5 inches

[sbnwx85]

I think IWX upgrades watch to a warning then puts rest of its counties under an advisory for 3-6”. Although Berrien and Cass get that amount later with lake effect

[KeenerWx]

WWA issued locally for 4-7”. Tough forecast on the northern fringes, as alluded to in the LOT AFD. Lake influence will make it increasingly difficult to nail down. 

[Jackstraw]

If Lucy's dry air doesn't pull the ball we could be getting an honest to goodness Big Dog here. Earlier onset the better. My call for 7 looks money but odds are increasing for a bust high substantially. Models keep upping the saturation times little by little. Definitely our brethren just S look to go 12+. Some of these soundings from various models showing 15-18k ft deep DGZ's Sat evening. And man, if we can get  any  decent wind this stuffs gonna be white waves. Gonna be the kind of snow that stacks quick.

[King James]

If Lucy's dry air doesn't pull the ball we could be getting an honest to goodness Big Dog here. Earlier onset the better. My call for 7 looks money but odds are increasing for a bust high substantially. Models keep upping the saturation times little by little. Definitely our brethren just S look to go 12+. Some of these soundings from various models showing 15-18k ft deep DGZ's Sat evening. And man, if we can get  any  decent wind this stuffs gonna be white waves. Gonna be the kind of snow that stacks quick.

Enjoy it friend

[Chicago WX]

LOT goes WWA for a bigger chunk of the CWA than I expected. IKK zone text has 3-5" total. I guess its part good ratios and then banking on LES closer to the lake. 

NW ticks been the theme of the models since 18z yesterday. Even the 6z GFS/GEFS came in a bit farther northwest. I mean not wholesale changes, but decent increases on the northern fringes. I guess we'll see. 

[Cary67]

2 hours ago, KeenerWx said:

WWA issued locally for 4-7”. Tough forecast on the northern fringes, as alluded to in the LOT AFD. Lake influence will make it increasingly difficult to nail down. 

Lake bake making the cake

[Powerball]

Believe it or not, there are reports of LES in parts of DFW right now.

It has to be forming in the lowest 5,000ft (not impossible given how warm the local lakes are and how dense the low-level cold air is), because temps between 850mb and 700mb are still solidly above freezing.

The synoptic precip is predominately sleet. Fortunately, we've mostly avoided the freezing rain thus far.

[Baum]

29 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

LOT goes WWA for a bigger chunk of the CWA than I expected. IKK zone text has 3-5" total. I guess its part good ratios and then banking on LES closer to the lake. 

NW ticks been the theme of the models since 18z yesterday. Even the 6z GFS/GEFS came in a bit farther northwest. I mean not wholesale changes, but decent increases on the northern fringes. I guess we'll see. 

 

6” downtown chi 

[King James]

LOT goes WWA for a bigger chunk of the CWA than I expected. IKK zone text has 3-5" total. I guess its part good ratios and then banking on LES closer to the lake. 
NW ticks been the theme of the models since 18z yesterday. Even the 6z GFS/GEFS came in a bit farther northwest. I mean not wholesale changes, but decent increases on the northern fringes. I guess we'll see. 

I’m just a dude that follows my backyard and to me the models have kept us in the game since this thread was made. Models consistently show like 4-9 for our area.

[Frog Town]

Nice trends overnight!  This is all because MI was removed from the thread.  Mother Nature's humor..

[Stevo6899]

2 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Nice trends overnight!  This is all because MI was removed from the thread.  Mother Nature's humor..

Plus still no headlines from dtx. We always do well when they underestimate an event, which is often.

[Frog Town]

2 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Plus still no headlines from dtx. We always do well when they underestimate an event, which is often.

I suspect at least Monroe and Lenawee will be added once all the hi-res 12Z data is in.  

[sbnwx85]

7 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

I think IWX upgrades watch to a warning then puts rest of its counties under an advisory for 3-6”. Although Berrien and Cass get that amount later with lake effect

[mimillman]

Call looking good 

[Stebo]

12 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

I suspect at least Monroe and Lenawee will be added once all the hi-res 12Z data is in.  

It will be more than that but those 2 counties and Wayne might be warning criteria if the overnight models are to be believed, did have a positive shift back north some. 

[TheRegionRat]

34 minutes ago, Baum said:

 

6” downtown chi 

Well folks, when you're right 52% of the time....Smooth Jimmy Apollo. That bit cracked me up over 30 years ago and still gets me now. 

[AWMT30]

Yeah thinking Lenawee, Monroe, and Wayne should go Warning 

[Baum]

First nowcast report. Snow shield looks further north on radar than modeled. Des Moines reporting light snow. Yes, I’m that guy.

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, Baum said:

First nowcast report. Snow shield looks further north on radar than modeled. Des Moines reporting light snow. Yes, I’m that guy.

Nah this is a good point, any snow we get today will help keep the column moistened for the brunt of the storm tomorrow. With it so cold outside right now we will inevitably be fighting dry air.

[AWMT30]

NAM looks north again. 

[Frog Town]

6 minutes ago, AWMT30 said:

NAM looks north again. 

Phasing looks to be happening quicker leading to a slower coastal transfer.  Hi -Res should be the first to see this.  

[sbnwx85]

On 1/22/2026 at 11:42 AM, sbnwx85 said:

3” final call.

Call in real jeopardy now

[Stevo6899]

12 minutes ago, AWMT30 said:

NAM looks north again. 

This is one of those where josh could get 8 inches, while my backyard gets a dusting. You should do well.

[DocATL]

First nowcast report. Snow shield looks further north on radar than modeled. Des Moines reporting light snow. Yes, I’m that guy.

Will be interesting to see this sharp gradient play out for us.