Tatamy Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 36 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: ICON says who’s panicking! The RDPS is also holding serve. The RRFA-S is actually improved over its 0z run. The only bad boy from 06z so far has been the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 We are still in the flip flop stage. Every model outside the NAM has gotten a bit colder at 6z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said: When the NAM shows a midlevel warm nose, definitely believe it. That’s literally the ONLY thing it’s good for and it has been schooling all the global models and the other meso models for years with it. It is a huge mistake to write off the NAM when it shows a warm nose. People have been burned time and time again when they ignore it 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: We are still in the flip flop stage. Every model outside the NAM has gotten a bit colder at 6z. Yeah GFS held or even ticked a bit colder. Rgem was colder, Icon too. Nam still drops 6-8" before any flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 06z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, snowman19 said: When the NAM shows a midlevel warm nose, definitely believe it. That’s literally the ONLY thing it’s good for and it has been schooling all the global models and the other meso models for years with it. It is a huge mistake to write off the NAM when it shows a warm nose. People have been burned time and time again Once it gets under 48hrs we'll pay attention. Even so it still has the 6-8" front end dump before any changeover. That's pretty much the floor with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: When the NAM shows a midlevel warm nose, definitely believe it. That’s literally the ONLY thing it’s good for and it has been schooling all the global models and the other meso models for years with it. It is a huge mistake to write off the NAM when it shows a warm nose. People have been burned time and time again Snowman - Totally agree. I am following the RDPS closely as that is another good Meso. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Once it gets under 48hrs we'll pay attention. Even so it still has the 6-8" front end dump before any changeover. That's pretty much the floor with this. Yep just expect 6-12 for the metro. Still a good storm . Once again the mid levels are ruining it for us. It all depends how fast the sleet comes in. The later the better. Who knows , maybe it will the models will be wrong and never turns to sleet. It has happen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: When the NAM shows a midlevel warm nose, definitely believe it. That’s literally the ONLY thing it’s good for and it has been schooling all the global models and the other meso models for years with it. It is a huge mistake to write off the NAM when it shows a warm nose. People have been burned time and time again when they ignore it Nam jumps around alot. Thats why people ignore it. I do agree with you though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: When the NAM shows a midlevel warm nose, definitely believe it. That’s literally the ONLY thing it’s good for and it has been schooling all the global models and the other meso models for years with it. It is a huge mistake to write off the NAM when it shows a warm nose. People have been burned time and time again when they ignore it I gotta agree. Watching the NAM closely and not ignoring it. To blindly write it off as wrong is setting yourself up for disappointment. At least keep it in the back of your mind. If it is doing this on the 12Z runs tomorrow believe it. Still early enough for pause with it as of now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Mt. Holly cut back totals over SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 These amounts seem more likely than the map they had earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Yikes. Toaster bath to start off 0zLive, Laugh, Toaster Bath.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 31 minutes ago, MANDA said: I gotta agree. Watching the NAM closely and not ignoring it. To blindly write it off as wrong is setting yourself up for disappointment. At least keep it in the back of your mind. If it is doing this on the 12Z runs tomorrow believe it. Still early enough for pause with it as of now. There is still a big front end thump of snow before the mix to sleet, that’s locked in. Getting back to the NAM, Binghamton NWS is expecting a possible turn to sleet all the way up into Northeast PA in their new disco this morning: “Models continue their jog northward for our winter storm Sunday into Monday. No major changes at this time, with still a significant snowstorm expected for the area with a widespread 10"+ with locally higher amounts possibly over 20". The finer scale models will be coming into play over the next 24 hours. It should be noted that the NAM and CMCreg are showing strong SE flow at H850. The NAM is notorious for doing very well forecasting the warm layers aloft and this will be something to monitor as we get closer. This warm layer aloft may not cause mixing per say, but it may significantly change snow ratios Sunday night across NEPA and possibly into the Southern Tier and this would produce lower snow totals in these areas if it comes to fruition. Also, mixing is not noted in our forecast at this time, however, a future change could be warranted if this trend north continues any further and this would also hinder snowfall totals across the southern forecast area some.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Has anyone done, or know how to do soundings for northwest NJ? I've seen a couple for NYC and Philly, but nothing for NW Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: These amounts seem more likely than the map they had earlier. Yep, much as I want 15” I just don’t see it around the city/coast. I-84 corridor is another story. I’m quite confident we’ll be mixing but hopefully most of it’s over by then. My thought is still 8-12” for NYC/LI/I-78 to 80. And honestly I consider 10” with some sleet pounded in to be a good win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 hours ago, TriPol said: I guess with this storm dumping sleet and freezing rain all over the country, it's just decided that it's going to do the same thing here. Fun times. It’s doing what just about any SWFE does. If you want all snow from these you want to be on the I-90 corridor. This is a bigger SWFE than usual with better front end snow but it’s behaving typical for them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Mount Holly 5:47am update: The areal extent of potential mixing remains in question, and tied in large part to the exact track of the coastal low. With that said, guidance continues to support the idea of a low track close enough to the coast to lead to at least some mixing for a large portion of the area, potentially as far north as the I-78 corridor. North of I- 78, the anticipation is still for an all snow event. Sunday night through early Monday morning, as the low begins to pull away and cold air from the northwest begins to filter back in, precipitation should change back to all snow for most of the area with additional accumulations likely. Breezy northeast winds on Sunday and northwest winds on Monday could lead to some minor blowing and drifting of snow, especially where mixing does not occur and where snow-to- liquid ratios are highest. All-told, snow amounts around 12-15" appear likely across all of eastern PA and northern NJ. Higher amounts (potentially exceeding 18") are expected across the Poconos and into adjacent areas of far northwestern NJ. For the lower Delmarva into much of southeastern NJ, 6-12" of snow are expected, with mixing limiting totals more in those areas. Right now, ice accretion of generally 0.10-0.25" is expected along the I-95 corridor. Amounts exceeding 0.25" are possible for portions of the Eastern Shore of Maryland. Further refinements will likely be needed in future updates as the event draws closer. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for the entire area Saturday night through early Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: When the NAM shows a midlevel warm nose, definitely believe it. That’s literally the ONLY thing it’s good for and it has been schooling all the global models and the other meso models for years with it. It is a huge mistake to write off the NAM when it shows a warm nose. People have been burned time and time again when they ignore it This 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: When the NAM shows a midlevel warm nose, definitely believe it. That’s literally the ONLY thing it’s good for and it has been schooling all the global models and the other meso models for years with it. It is a huge mistake to write off the NAM when it shows a warm nose. People have been burned time and time again when they ignore it NAM is usually closer to right than the other models but it can be too aggressive with it. In Dec it had me mixing but I never really did. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 My thoughts haven't changed too much overnight. Cooler air arrived a few hours more slowly than had been modeled overnight. But overall, things remain on track for a frigid start to the weekend and a large storm on Sunday into early Monday. The overnight guidance reached consensus that the snow that arrives on Sunday will eventually change to sleet in much of the New York City area and its nearby suburbs. A few of the models cut back on QPF. Almost 95% of EPS and GEFS members show 6" or more snow in New York City. In the bigger picture, the New York City area remains in line for its biggest snowstorm in nearly four or five years. It remains likely that New York City and nearby areas will see a storm total of 6"-12" of snow and sleet. Areas to the south and east of New York City could see 4"-8" amounts. Pockets of 12"-18" amounts are possible well north and west of New York City, most likely in parts of northeastern Pennsylvania, Orange County, Dutchess County, and Sussex County. There remains some uncertainty concerning mid-level and surface storm evolution and tracks, and perhaps somewhat greater uncertainty regarding a potential primary-secondary storm handoff. Model skill will improve markedly today. Whether or not changes will need to be made remain to be seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 7 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Agreed. In my oversimplified view I think of getting a major snowstorm at the coast here as having similar odds as winning $50 on a $1 scratch off lottery ticket, which is something like 1 in 360. That would work out to one big storm every four winters if distributed perfectly. Maybe at the moment the odds are now 1 in 500, or one in every 5-6 winters, again *if distributed perfectly.* Either way, you need a heck of a lot of luck to have a winner. And given the low odds to begin with, the change in the total number of big storms that one sees in a lifetime might be so minor as to be unnoticeable. Then when you consider the temperatures in the 1980s and the number of big snows and compare to the temperatures and big snows in the 2010s, it becomes apparent that its not just about cold. Someone on this board posts a nice image of a triangle with the three ingredients for snow: cold, moisture, and luck. That's very true. I bleieve @Dark Star posts the triangle. His visualization really summarizes things quite well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 20 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: 540 line is too rough to use as a definitive ptype demarc especially when it is still close. 546, which is depicted to our south could still be snow. The devil is in the details. The 850s do look very warm at 96 and beyond. The 540 line is only a rough approximation when the AI doesn’t show the P-Types chart. Right now I would probably use the NAM as the floor for NYC and Long Island with at least 6-8” before any mixing later Sunday. The RGEM and other guidance at 10-12” would probably be the ceiling. I used the kuchera to account for the higher ratios at the start gradually falling back closer to 10:1 later Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Upton says I'm all snow through 10 pm Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Would be cool if Mt Holly’s maps didn’t show way more snow than their discussion implies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, CentralNJSnowman said: Would be cool if Mt Holly’s maps didn’t show way more snow than their discussion implies I’m sure they’ll adjust further today. Hopefully the models are done with the warm shifts but the confluence needs to hold as long as it can. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Once it gets under 48hrs we'll pay attention. Even so it still has the 6-8" front end dump before any changeover. That's pretty much the floor with this. Yup. Right or wrong, we're getting to the time where I pay more attention to the mesos over the globals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 What a mess it will be outside if we get 6 plus inches of snow and some sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Good AM discussion out of OKX The overall synoptic picture into early next week continues to sharpen. At the surface, arctic high pressure slides east from the Great Lakes into the Northeast this weekend. Meanwhile, low pressure develops and tracks through the South before redeveloping off Cape Hatteras, passing near or just inside the 40N/70W benchmark into Monday. Aiding the potential for snowfall, an arctic air mass settles in ahead of the storm. 925 mb temps look to fall toward -20C or below on Saturday, with surface temperatures progged in the teens during the afternoon, setting up one of the coldest days in several years. This will allow snow to fall everywhere at the onset, which looks to develop rather quickly either very late Saturday night, or more likely Sunday morning around or after daybreak. Periods of heavy snow then appear likely late Sunday morning through the afternoon via the strong frontogenetic and thermal forcing aided by an anticyclonic upper jet to the north. Snowfall rates in this period likely eclipse 1 in/hr at times, perhaps closer to 2 in/hr. Given the cold air mass in place initially, SLRs start out on the higher side (15-18:1) at onset, gradually falling back toward 10:1 or lower along the coast by late afternoon as the mid levels warm. With guidance having adjusted to a closer to the coast surface low, the proximity introduces the possibility of enough warm air intrusion around 800 mb for the snow to mix with or change to sleet Sunday evening. Best chances for this are along the coast, including Long Island and NYC metro. Lower confidence in this occurring going north, with all snow still the most likely solution into the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern Connecticut. Freezing rain or drizzle also cannot be ruled out, though significant icing appears unlikely. As the coastal system deepens and lifts north and east into Monday, the boundary cools once again, and any wintry mix likely tapers as snow showers or flurries into late Monday morning or afternoon. Any additional accumulation is likely light. Forecast snowfall totals have decreased slightly along the coast. This is due to the increased potential for mixing as the warmer air aloft works in. It should be emphasized though the heaviest and steadiest precipitation is expected Sunday morning into early evening, with the bulk of snow accumulation occurring prior to any potential changeover. With QPF progged over an inch, areas that remain all snow should be able to yield double digit snowfall. The question becomes how much warm air is able to work in and force a changeover to sleet, cutting down snow totals. All said, still expecting a widespread 8 to 14 inches across the region, with localized amounts perhaps approaching a foot and a half where best banding sets up and ptype remains all snow. Greatest likelihood for this is across the interior. We remain just over 48 hours from event onset, so opted for no headline changes with this update. It appears likely warnings will be warranted for all areas later today or tonight, dependent on no significant deviations in forecast thought. Continue to monitor the forecast on what is increasingly likely to be a major winter storm with significant disruption to travel and daily life early next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 The NWS actually added an inch to my WSW - 12-17. Not sure what they’re looking at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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