WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, mriceyman said: I thought u self banned yourself . i said i would step away from posting for 48 hours if we didn't see a north trend from the models last night and we did so in here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Models love to extend storm duration. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: I mean every single model is showing the same thing except the GFS. Ensembles are as well. I mean there's really not much more you could ask for? true and the GFS ensembles disagree with its OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: I consider the GFS solution unlikely as of now because of little support from other model guidance and the history of this model showing extreme solutions at this range in the past I'm happy it's the GFS showing the miss and not the CMC, ECMWF, or UK. But big snowstorms are uncommon - everything has to go right and usually doesn't. So it's reasonable to be on guard for what might go wrong. Any signs of trending towards the GFS should be concerning if you want a big snow event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, Prue11 said: We’re 5 days out so you really think what you’re seeing now holds true on Sunday? Big potential when all the models show basically the same thing and the pattern supports it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Euro is around .75" liquid 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro is around .75" liquid You already have the 12z run?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I like where we stand, i think the GFS will come around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: You already have the 12z run?? Yeah its been done a while now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: You already have the 12z run?? Euro runs about 30 minutes earlier than it used to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Yeah thats a big hit on the EURO. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just at 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 8 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Models love to extend storm duration. So would we! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 11 minutes ago, Prue11 said: We’re 5 days out so you really think what you’re seeing now holds true on Sunday? SANITY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Vorticity being left behind in the SW this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah thats a big hit on the EURO. Not a major system but wouldn’t matter given how cold the airmass is. We could see a foot even with .75 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, Nibor said: Vorticity being left behind in the SW this time. Yeah it was a sloppy phase and we still get a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The Euro is about a foot in the city more south. Onto happy hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, Nibor said: Vorticity being left behind in the SW this time. Yup, not a clean phase. It trended towards the GFS with regards to handling the SW energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The 12z ECMWF is a step back from 6z and 0z. The phase is not as clean. It's still a great storm as depicted, just not as favorable as the past 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah it was a sloppy phase and we still get a foot. Hopefully a blip and not a trend towards burying that energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: The 12z ECMWF is a step back from 6z and 0z. The phase is not as clean. It's still a great storm as depicted, just not as favorable as the past 2 runs. We get over a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: 12Z QPF Totals (NYC) ICON: 0.9 - 1.1 GFS: Trace GGEM: 0.6 - 0.8 GEFS: 0.5 - 0.6 UKMET: 1.00 - >1.00 Euro AI AIFS: 0.5 - 0.6 Euro: 0.7 - 0.8 GEPS: EPS: 12z updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: The 12z ECMWF is a step back from 6z and 0z. The phase is not as clean. It's still a great storm as depicted, just not as favorable as the past 2 runs. What was 0Z and 6z euro? I thought it barely showed snow past the mason dixon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 12z Euro toral QPF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The CMC would be the best storm for most in many many years. It has literally all the ingredients that we love: cold temperatures, all-snow, long duration, includes part of weekend, high QPF. Anyone saying it's not a big storm is crazy. It might not drop record snow anywhere/everywhere, but in a few spots that could rival the big ones even as depicted.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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